Japan vs Sweden Prediction & Betting Tips - World Cup
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by Nella Wagah | in World Cup Predictions
Japan and Sweden will be taking to the pitch for the third time at the 2026 World Cup, both looking to secure round of 32 slots. Playing in Group F, the two nations are separated by one point after the opening two rounds, and this is a match neither side can afford to lose. These two are 20 places apart in the world rankings, with Japan sitting 18th and Sweden 38th.
Surprisingly, as they meet for the seventh time in history, Japan are yet to post a win in this fixture. Three of the six matches ended in defeats for the Samurai Blue. While Japan do not enjoy the head-to-head advantage in this game, our prediction backs them to prevail, having won 12 of their last 16 competitive games.
With a win here, Japan will advance as group winners if the Netherlands fail to beat Tunisia. They can also top the group by matching the Netherlands’ result and edging them out on goal difference. On the other hand, Sweden will finish as runners-up with a win here, and the Netherlands beat Tunisia.
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Japan v Sweden Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2.5 | 3.15 | 2.85 |
|
|
11.3 | 1.18 | 10.2 |
|
|
2.29 | 3.22 | 3.26 |
|
|
2.01 | 3.3 | 3.94 |
|
|
2.34 | 3.26 | 3.37 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Japan and Sweden?
Our prediction for the Japan vs Sweden match is: Japan wins.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 25/06/2026 between Japan and Sweden in World Cup :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 59.68% for a win of Japan against Sweden with odds of 17 at Betsson.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Japan vs Sweden is 26.02% with odds of 3.5 at LSbet.
- Our prediction model gives a 14.3% chance ⭐ for a win of Sweden vs Japan with odds of 15 at Betsson.
Japan - Sweden Prediction and Best Odds:
| Japan Sweden Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Japan wins | 59.68% | 17 at Betsson |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.36% | 8 at Betsson |
| Both Team To Score | 59.52% | 1.8 at LSbet |
| Half-time / Full-time : Japan/Japan | 28.24% | 4 at Shangrila |
Japan vs Sweden Form
Japan and Sweden's standings in the World Cup
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2
|
5 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +4 |
|
3
|
4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Japan and Sweden Last Matches
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
21 Jun 2026 - World Cup
14 Jun 2026 - World Cup
31 May 2026 - International Friendlies
31 Mar 2026 - International Friendlies
28 Mar 2026 - International Friendlies
18 Nov 2025 - International Friendlies
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
31 May 2026 - International Friendlies
18 Nov 2025 - International Friendlies
14 Nov 2025 - International Friendlies
14 Oct 2025 - International Friendlies
10 Oct 2025 - International Friendlies
12 Jul 2025 - East Asian Championship
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
21 Jun 2026 - World Cup
14 Jun 2026 - World Cup
31 Mar 2026 - International Friendlies
28 Mar 2026 - International Friendlies
9 Sept 2025 - International Friendlies
6 Sept 2025 - International Friendlies
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
20 Jun 2026 - World Cup
14 Jun 2026 - World Cup
4 Jun 2026 - International Friendlies
1 Jun 2026 - International Friendlies
31 Mar 2026 - World Cup
26 Mar 2026 - World Cup
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 Jun 2026 - World Cup
4 Jun 2026 - International Friendlies
31 Mar 2026 - World Cup
18 Nov 2025 - World Cup
13 Oct 2025 - World Cup
10 Oct 2025 - World Cup
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
20 Jun 2026 - World Cup
1 Jun 2026 - International Friendlies
26 Mar 2026 - World Cup
15 Nov 2025 - World Cup
8 Sept 2025 - World Cup
5 Sept 2025 - World Cup
Japan - Sweden: Form Analysis
Japan had a solid performance last time out, facing the group’s whipping boys, Tunisia. The Samurai Blue ran out 4-0 winners in a dominant display, registering their 12th win in 16 competitive matches. They have only lost once in that run, against Australia in the qualifiers.
The Asian giants seem to be warming up for their best run at a FIFA World Cup. They have never gone past the last 16 at the world championships. Avoiding defeat here will see the Japanese through to the knockouts where a tough round of 32 match awaits. Finishing in the top two here means they will meet Brazil or Morocco.
Sweden lost five times in their last 10 competitive matches.
Sweden have the chance to finish second in this group, and they will achieve that with a win in this encounter. After a fine show in the opening game when they beat Tunisia 5-1, Sweden got a reality check in round two, when hammered 5-1 by the Netherlands.
Despite the heavy loss, the Swedes are the best ranked third-placed team at the moment. That might change, though, when Portugal play their second match. Should they win here and the Netherlands lose to Tunisia, the Swedes could find themselves topping the group. In such a scenario they’d face the Group C runners-up, possibly Morocco.
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Japan against Sweden Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 3 - 4 - 3
Formation : 3 - 4 - 1 - 2
Substitutes
K. Osako
T. Hayakawa
DefenderT. Watanabe
J. Suzuki
T. Tomiyasu
S. Taniguchi
Y. Nagatomo
K. Sano
Y. Suzuki
J. Ito
K. Goto
S. Machino
K. Shiogai
K. Ogawa
V. Johansson
K. Nordfeldt
DefenderH. Johansson
D. Svensson
H. Ekdal
C. Starfelt
E. Smith
MidfielderB. Nygren
B. Zeneli
L. Bergvall
M. Svanberg
K. Sema
J. Karlstrom
ForwardT. Ali
G. Nilsson
Missing players
T. Kubo
Japan & Sweden Squad Analysis
Japan have dealt well with their injury problems at this tournament and will hope for another good outing here. Hajime Moriyasu was two players light in the win over Tunisia as Wataru Endo and Takefusa Kubo remained sidelined. Kubo sustained a knee sprain in their World Cup opener and isn’t expected back until July.
It effectively means the earliest he can return is in the knockout stage. The same applies to Endo, and Moriyasu is already experimenting. The coach deployed defensive midfielder Daichi Kamada in an advanced position in the Tunisia game, and the Crystal Palace man got the opening goal. Ayase Ueda also had a fine outing, with two goals and an assist. There's more to come as Japan will welcome Shuto Machino back into the squad after illness locked him out recently.
Alexander Isak has had five goal involvements in Sweden’s last four matches.
The Swedes were run ragged defensively by the Netherlands, and Graham Potter will need to find solutions. While goalkeeper Kristoffer Nordfeldt should have done better on a number of occasions, Victor Lindelof and Isak Hein were culpable of big errors.
The Netherlands took advantage of those as well as easily lost possession that they quickly turned into attack. Anthony Elanga came on to aid Alexander Isak and Viktor Gyokeres and he did well, his speed troubling the Dutch. That could make Potter think of starting a three-man attack with Benjamin Nygren probably sacrificed.
Most goals and assists
Japan
Sweden
D. Kamada
(2 Goals)
,
A. Ueda
(2 Goals)
Y. Ayari
(2 Goals)
,
A. Elanga
(2 Goals)
K. Ogawa
(1 Assists)
,
T. Kubo
(1 Assists)
,
K. Itakura
(1 Assists)
,
K. Nakamura
(1 Assists)
,
A. Ueda
(1 Assists)
,
K. Sano
(1 Assists)
,
R. Doan
(1 Assists)
A. Isak
(3 Assists)
Japan - Sweden Key Points
- Japan have recorded 12 wins in their last 16 competitive matches.
- Japan are undefeated in their last four World Cup matches, winning twice.
- Sweden lost five times in their latest 10 competitive games.
- Japan are unbeaten in their last eight outings, winning seven.
- Sweden suffered defeat in two of their last four matches.
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Our Japan vs Sweden Prediction
Sweden’s defensive ability came to the fore again in their heavy loss to the Netherlands. The test will not be any easier against Japan, who come into this encounter off a big win themselves. The Swedes have now lost twice in their last four matches and also five of their latest 10 competitive games.
Historical data favors Sweden, but we don’t think it will matter here, seeing as Japan have won 12 of their last 16 competitive matches. Our prediction for Japan v Sweden is that Japan wins.
Japan vs Sweden Alternative Predictions
BTTS
Sweden may be struggling defensively, but in attack they possess some of the best talents in world football. Coming into this game serious about avoiding defeat, Sweden will definitely send out an attacking team. In the end, we feel Japan’s solid defence will be breached here. We are backing, in our second prediction here, both teams to score.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Japan Sweden
| Japan vs Sweden | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Japan wins | 2.15 | 17 | +690.7% |
| Draw | 3.45 | 3.5 | +1.4% |
| Sweden wins | 3.55 | 15 | +322.5% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Japan is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 690.7% since opening
- The probability of this result was 46.5% and is now 5.9% (-40.6%)
Japan vs Sweden - FAQs
The Japan v Sweden match will be played on Friday, 26th June at 00:00 UK Time.
This match will be staged at the AT&T Stadium in Texas.
Ivan Barton from El Salvador will be the man at the center of this match. Barton has already issued a red card at this tournament. The recipient was Miguel Almiron, for the offence of covering his mouth while speaking to an opponent.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
