Tip Italy - Wales
So far it is hard to pick a team better than Italy at Euro 2020 and even after securing their place in the knockouts after two wins in two in Group A, they aren’t expected to slow down against Wales in the final group game. Italy thrashed a strong Switzerland 3-0 in the second game, having beaten Turkey by the same margin in the first, and go here two points better than Wales. The Azzurri have been silky and a marvel to watch in their two matches and are now unbeaten in 29 matches, their easy win over Switzerland strengthening their place as favorites to win Euro 2020. The only negative going to this game will be the injury to skipper Giorgio Chiellini who was withdrawn early against Switzerland with a suspected hamstring injury. With Italy already through, he won’t be risked for the Wales game and Francesco Acerbi should continue in the position after replacing him against Switzerland. Italy have won each of their last 10 matches ahead of this game all with clean sheets, and scored two or more goals in each of these. Their last five matches alone have seen the team score 17 goals.
Wales last met Italy in 2003, and on that occasion, Italy won 4-0. This is the first time the two nations meet in a tournament situation and Italy have won five of the six previous meetings, with Wales winning one. Going to this game we don’t expect that head to head flow to change. Wales are in a good position to proceed to the second round but gunning for three points against Italy may feel like they are pushing it too hard. They had good organization against Switzerland as they came from down to draw 1-1, and were impressive too in their 2-0 win over Turkey. In the two games though, they had shaky situations defensively and this Italy side would punish them badly. Needing just a draw to secure second place, Wales are expected to employ a defensive approach here, and hope they can use Gareth Bale’s pace and vision on the counter. The skipper was impressive against Turkey. Though he missed a penalty in the game, his two assists and vision will be remembered more. The team has one win in the last four matches and the win over Turkey served the third clean sheet in five matches and the first time in seven that they managed more than a goal in a game.
Key points Italy - Wales
Italy are unbeaten in their last 29 matches.
Wales have scored more than a goal in just one of their last seven games.
Wales have one win in the last four matches.
Italy have 10 straight wins, all with clean sheets.
Italy have scored two or more goals in each of the last 10 matches.
Conclusion Italy - Wales
Wales are expected to sit back for the better part of this game and try to get Italy on the counter. A draw will work for them and with Italy already through, we don’t expect the Azzurri to push too hard. Still Italy will be better than Wales and even with key players rested, they will have better quality. Italy are not expected to be as explosive as they were in the opening two matches, with plans already underway for the second round and hoping to avoid injuries. So back this to produce under 2.5 goals.
Italy Wales Prediction published on June 17, 2021