Italy vs Turkiye Prediction & Betting Tips - UEFA Nations League
Europe - UEFA Nations League
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by Devesh Jaganath | in UEFA Nations League Predictions
Italy and Turkey will face off at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara in Group A1 of the UEFA Nations League on Monday evening. Gli Azzurri beat this opponent 4-1 last week, and our prediction is that they will come out on top in this match as well.
After suffering a 2-0 defeat to Belgium in their opening match of the UNL, Italy bounced back with a 4-1 victory over Turkey before playing to a 1-1 draw against France on Friday night.
Gli Azzurri outperformed France by recording 1.55 xG and creating three big chances despite having just 35% possession. Alessandro Bastoni has scored in his last two matches in this competition.
Italy have won four of their last six home matches (L2). They scored two goals and kept clean sheets in each of the victories during this period.
Meanwhile, Turkey have struggled to come to terms with the step up in class in League A of this competition. They have lost all three of their games to date and conceded eight goals in total.
The Crescent Stars lost to Belgium 3-0 last Friday. They recorded 47% possession, 1.39 xG, 40 touches in the opposition box, and created two big chances in that match.
The visitors have only lost one of their last six away games (W4 D1), but they have never beaten Italy in men’s international football.
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Italy v Turkiye Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.42 | 4.8 | 6 |
|
|
1.48 | 5.1 | 6.32 |
|
|
1.45 | 4.98 | 6.15 |
|
|
1.5 | 4.8 | 5.65 |
|
|
1.45 | 4.98 | 6.15 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Italy and Turkiye?
Our prediction for the Italy vs Turkiye match is: Italy wins.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 05/10/2026 between Italy and Turkiye in UEFA Nations League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 57.13% for a win of Italy against Turkiye with odds of 1.5 at Betwinner.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Italy vs Turkiye is 13.15% with odds of 5.25 at Bet365.
- Our prediction model gives a 29.72% chance ⭐ for a win of Turkiye vs Italy with odds of 6.8 at Betsson.
Italy vs Turkiye Form
Italy and Turkiye's standings in the UEFA Nations League
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3
|
4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 |
|
4
|
0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -7 |
Italy and Turkiye Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
2 Oct 2026 - UEFA Nations League
28 Sept 2026 - UEFA Nations League
25 Sept 2026 - UEFA Nations League
7 Jun 2026 - International Friendlies
3 Jun 2026 - International Friendlies
31 Mar 2026 - World Cup
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
25 Sept 2026 - UEFA Nations League
26 Mar 2026 - World Cup
16 Nov 2025 - World Cup
14 Oct 2025 - World Cup
5 Sept 2025 - World Cup
9 Jun 2025 - World Cup
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
2 Oct 2026 - UEFA Nations League
28 Sept 2026 - UEFA Nations League
7 Jun 2026 - International Friendlies
3 Jun 2026 - International Friendlies
31 Mar 2026 - World Cup
13 Nov 2025 - World Cup
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
5/6 (83%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
2 Oct 2026 - UEFA Nations League
28 Sept 2026 - UEFA Nations League
25 Sept 2026 - UEFA Nations League
25 Jun 2026 - World Cup
19 Jun 2026 - World Cup
14 Jun 2026 - World Cup
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
28 Sept 2026 - UEFA Nations League
25 Sept 2026 - UEFA Nations League
25 Jun 2026 - World Cup
19 Jun 2026 - World Cup
1 Jun 2026 - International Friendlies
26 Mar 2026 - World Cup
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
2 Oct 2026 - UEFA Nations League
14 Jun 2026 - World Cup
6 Jun 2026 - International Friendlies
31 Mar 2026 - World Cup
18 Nov 2025 - World Cup
11 Oct 2025 - World Cup
Italy vs Turkiye Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
75 %
25 %
0 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
28 Sept 2026 - UEFA Nations League
4 Jun 2024 - International Friendlies
29 Mar 2022 - International Friendlies
11 Jun 2021 - Euro
Italy vs Turkiye last Lineups
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Formation : 3 - 4 - 3
Substitutes
M. Carnesecchi
G. Vicario
DefenderM. Ruggeri
G. Di Lorenzo
G. Mancini
MidfielderS. Ricci
A. Vergara
N. Barella
I. Doumbia
ForwardG. Scamacca
M. Zoma
D. Maldini
A. Bayindir
M. Sengezer
DefenderE. Elmali
E. Topcu
O. Kabak
MidfielderS. Ozcan
D. Tiknaz
I. Fakili
M. Eskihellac
ForwardD. Gul
Y. Akgun
I. Kahveci
Most goals and assists
Italy
Turkiye
A. Bastoni
(2 Goals)
B. Yilmaz
(1 Goals)
F. Esposito
(1 Assists)
O. Aydin
(1 Assists)
Italy and Turkiye Stats in UEFA Nations League
Italy - Turkiye Key Points
- Italy have won six of their last 10 matches in all competitions.
- Italy have kept clean sheets in four of their last six home games.
- Turkey have lost five of their last six matches in all competitions.
- Turkey have never beaten Italy in a competitive match.
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Our Italy vs Turkiye Prediction
After the massive disappointment of failing to qualify for the 2026 World Cup, pressure is certainly on Italy to deliver in this competition, and they have looked decent across the first half of the group stage.
Turkey, on the other hand, have struggled to cope with the step up in class in League A, losing all three of their matches while conceding eight goals. The visitors have never beaten Gli Azzurri, and we feel they will lose this match as well. Our Italy vs Turkey prediction is Italy wins.
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
