9 May 2025, 06:00
Giro d'Italia
Giro d'Italia Stage 1
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Giro d'Italia Stage 1 Predictions & Betting tips - Giro d'Italia
by Matthew Newman |
The 2025 Giro d'Italia starts with three stages in Albania. The opening stage has a few small climbs which can make it interesting in the second half of the 160km stage where we look to make our prediction.
The descent from the final climb is with 10km to go with a left-hand turn 500m from the finish which could be a pinch point with riders jostling to lead out any sprinters remaining.
Olav Kooij is the top-rated sprinter in the lineup, riding for Jumbo Visma. It will be interesting to see how the team plays this with Wout van Aert in the starting lineup as well.
The only other rider in the top 10 sprinters over the last 12 months is Milan Fretin. He has a pair of one-day wins this year as well as taking a stage of the Volta ao Algarve.
Twice the winner of the sprinter's jersey at the Vuelta, Kaden Groves was also the winner of a stage at the Giro in 2023. He has the speed to play a massive role here.
Mads Pedersen showed up well in the recent one-day races and this punchy profile probably makes him the one they all have to beat. He is in the best form of his life and can show that on the second ascent of the Surrel.
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Giro d'Italia Stage 1 - Giro d'Italia prediction key points
- The Cat Three climb will be crested twice, there is a 1km section at an average of 8.3% with a maximum of 13% where the puncheurs will try to blow the field apart.
- Pedersen and van Aert have met in four races this season, Pederson finishing on top in three.
- The 2023 Giro is the only one that Pedersen has ridden in the last six years. He won a stage from Napoli to Napoli, a puncheurs stage.
- With points classification wins in the Paris-Nice and Tour de la Provence, Mads Pedersen is enjoying a career year.
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Our Giro d'Italia Stage 1 - Giro d'Italia prediction
A fascinating opening stage of the Giro. Some punchy climbs in the second half of the stage give it a half classics and half sprint vibe so it is not a shock to see Mads Pedersen and Wout van Aert at the head of the market.
It is the first named that makes the most appeal given that there is some doubt about how Jumbo Visma will set up. Olav Kooij will have to work hard to get over the climbs but if he does, he's the best sprinter in this field. If he doesn't they'll turn to Wout van Aert. At least with Lidl-Trek, it is all about Pedersen. Our Giro d'Italia Stage 1 prediction is a win for Mads Pedersen.
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
