Giro d'Italia 2024 Predictions & Betting tips
Once again, the Giro d'Italia presents itself to the eyes of riders and fans with its fearsome and winding route. SportyTrader has analysed the 107th edition of La Corsa Rosa trying to identify the most exciting stages and the main favourites for the general classification.
Giro d'Italia 2024 presentation and prediction - Cycling
The Giro d'Italia 2024 will be the 107th edition of the race and will take place in twenty-one stages from 4 to 26 May 2024 for a total of 3,321.2 km. The start will take place in Venaria Reale, on the outskirts of Turin, and the finish will be in Rome for the second consecutive time and the sixth in the history of the Giro.
In the last edition of La Corsa Rosa it was the Slovenian Primož Roglič who triumphed ahead of Britain’s Geraint Thomas and Portugal’s João Almeida. So, everything is ready to see who will be the heir to the Bora-Hansgrohe rider.
Fans and bettors are wondering who the favourites are for the Giro d'Italia 2024 and which are the most important stages that could allow the candidates to put a big dent in the pink jersey. We’ll explore the answers to these and other questions on this page dedicated to the Giro d'Italia 2024.
Winner's prediction: Who will win the Giro d'Italia 2024?
While waiting for the teams registered for the Giro d'Italia 2024 to confirm the riders who will be competing, the bookmakers have already drawn up the first ante post lists on the possible eventual winners. At the top of the preference list is Tadej Pogačar, another Slovenian representing the colours of UAE Team Emirates. Sportytrader's editorial staff agree with the bookmakers this time, so our Giro d'Italia prediction for the final pink jersey is: Pogačar wins!
Behind 'Pogi', a two-time winner of the Tour de France, is Geraint Thomas, who will try again after finishing second in the 2023 edition in the hunt for his second grand tour after the 2018 Tour de France. Home fans will be able to cheer on Damiano Caruso, from Ragusa, of Bahrain Victorious who had to settle for second place in 2021. Also keep an eye on Ben O'Connor, who will be called upon to keep up the Australian colours in force at Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale Team.
Giro d'Italia prediction - odds on the favourites for the Giro 2024
- Tadej Pogačar - 1.16
- Geraint Thomas - 8.00
- Cian Uijtdebroeks - 23.00
- Romain Bardet - 23.00
- Antonio Tiberi - 23.00
- Ben O'Connor - 26.00
- Thymen Arensman - 26.00
- Daniel Martinez - 26.00
- Florian Lipowitz - 34.00
- Damiano Caruso - 34.00
- Alexey Lutsenko - 67.00
- Einer Rubio - 101.00
- Juan Pedro Lopez - 101.00
- Eddie Dunbar - 126.00
- Lucas Plapp - 151.00
- Rafal Majka - 151.00
- Nairo Quintana - 201.00
- Jan Hirt - 201.00
- Aurelien Paret-Peintre - 201.00
Odds found on bet365.com
Giro d'Italia: the route stage by stage
The Giro d'Italia 2024, the 107th edition of the famous race scheduled from 4 to 26 May, features two time trials, six flat stages and five mountain stages.
Ready to go and there will be immediate excitement with a 'move' stage, the Venaria Reale-Torino of 143 km with the peloton going down to Superga and, on Saturday 4 May, paying homage to the Grande Torino on the 75th anniversary of the air tragedy that took the granata team away.
The first uphill finish will already arrive on the second day, when the riders will climb towards the Sanctuary of Oropa 25 years after Marco Pantani's memorable comeback. In the first week, the spotlights will also be on the sixth stage, where the great protagonist will be the Tuscan gravel road. Two individual time trials are scheduled: the Foligno-Perugia and the Castiglione delle Stiviere-Desenzano del Garda for a total of 68 kilometres against the clock. The Cima Coppi will be the Passo dello Stelvio (2,758 metres altitude), included in the opening stage of stage 16. The Spoleto-Prati di Tivo (final climb of 14.6 kilometres), the Livigno stage (5,200 metres of altitude difference in 220 kilometres), the Brocon Pass stage and the penultimate stage with the double ascent of Monte Grappa are also worth mentioning.
There will be 21 stages scheduled over three weeks of the race, totalling 3321.2 kilometres and 42,900 metres of elevation gain.
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Cycling betting beginners: How does the Giro d'Italia work?
The Giro d'Italia is a cycling race organised every year during spring in Italy. Divided into 21 stages, it sees many of the world's best riders compete to win one or more stages, wear the pink jersey reserved for the leader of the classification, and attempt to win the points classification or the final classification that enshrines the rider in a roll of honour with the sport’s biggest names.
For three weeks, all eyes of two-wheel enthusiasts will be on the most beautiful Italian landscapes of great mountains, plains, coastlines, hills and big cities... a route that allows a whole range of skills to be showcased between the different riders. At the end of the 21 stages of the race, the best will wear the pink jersey and win the final classification of the Giro d'Italia cycling race.
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Giro d'Italia classification: how is it calculated?
There are several classifications in the Giro d'Italia, but the only one that is of any importance is the individual classification. This is the one that determines which rider is entitled to wear the pink jersey and which determines the overall winner.
The individual classification is determined by the sum of the times achieved by each rider during the individual stages of the race. At the end of the event, the one who finishes the Giro in the shortest possible time is named the winner of the Giro d'Italia.
In addition to the individual classification, there is also a points classification that awards the Cyclamen jersey: it rewards the rider who has most often placed in the first places at the end of the stages or who has crossed the finish line among the first at the flying sprints.
There is also the classification of the best climber, with its famous blue jersey, which rewards the best rider on the different climbs. On the different summits, points are awarded to the first riders to reach the top, depending on the category of the climb and the order of passage.
It should also be noted that at the Giro d'Italia, there is also a white jersey that rewards the best placed Under 26 rider in the general classification. A team classification is also established, adding up the times of all riders of each team who have reached the finish line.
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How to make winning Giro predictions?
In order to predict the Giro d'Italia like the best bettors, it is necessary to follow certain indications throughout the race. Here are the main indicators our cycling specialists rely on during each stage of the 'pink' race:
- Take into account the nature of the stage
- Take into account the weather conditions
- Taking into account the location of the stage
- Taking into account the different classifications
- Taking into account the last stage of the riders
- Take into account the nature of the stage
To correctly predict each stage of the Giro d'Italia, the first thing to do is to know the nature of the stage. Don't get trapped and don't bet on the best rider on paper: Pogacar, Thomas or Caruso will not win every stage of the Tour!
It is imperative to know whether the test of the day is a mountain stage, a flat stage, a hill stage, or even an individual time trial. This will give a precise indication of which riders are most likely to shine (for example: a sprinter will not be able to do much in a mountain stage, when on the contrary he will have an advantage on the flat).
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Taking the weather conditions into account
In addition to knowing the nature of the day's stage, you need to take into account the expected weather conditions. Is rain expected? Are high temperatures expected? What is the air quality like if the riders were to cross a city? So many questions need to be answered to have a better chance of success in predicting the individual stages of the Giro d'Italia.
If a possible thunderstorm is forecast, for example, or even strong gusts of wind, watch out because accidents could be a possibility, as well as caution on the part of the riders announced as favourites. In the past, the weather has already played tricks on the various cyclists involved in the Giro d'Italia and, consequently, also on bettors.
Taking into account the location of the stage
The third criterion to be analysed in order to predict a stage as correctly as possible: the location of that day's race. Here, it is above all historical data that we must look for. Pay attention not only to the home riders (they are from the region, so expect a more than certain attack), but also to the performance of each one on that type of terrain.
A rider who, for example, has won a similar stage in a past Giro d'Italia or other grand tour will have to be watched very carefully. This data really has to be taken into account on a daily basis and can make all the difference in placing a winning bet.
Take into account the different rankings
Fourth piece of advice: you should take into account the different classifications at the Giro d'Italia. Apart from the individual general classification, which remains the most important and which in any case concerns a small group of riders, it will be crucial to always take a look at the points classification, the best climber classification, the best young rider classification and the team classification. They will systematically give an indication of the challenges of each rider, and thus of his or her motivation/need to perform on the day's stage.
For example, if a rider is in the running for the blue jersey (best climber), he can be expected to put up a fight if the day's stage includes several summit passages. In the same spirit, well-placed sprinters in the points classification will need to be closely watched if the day's stage is more flat. They will all have a growing desire to succeed.
It should not be forgotten that in some stages the favourites for the final victory of the Giro d'Italia will try above all not to lose time on their main rivals. The riders to follow will therefore be those who have a greater interest in taking the day's victory, while the so-called 'captains' may mark themselves and leave it to riders far behind in the general classification.
Taking into account the riders' last stage
Finally, you must also take into account the very last stage performed by the riders you want to bet on. Were they used more than expected? On the contrary, were they content to maintain the lead without drawing too much on their physical reserves? In short: are they fresh or rather physically exhausted?
By finding an initial answer to this question, one can see more and more clearly the capabilities of the riders of interest in placing a bet. One thing you absolutely must never forget before predicting a stage of the Giro d'Italia 2024.
Giro d'Italia predictions: what not to do!
To avoid jeopardising your chances of placing winning predictions on the Giro d'Italia 2024, keep in mind that there are a few pitfalls to avoid when betting on cycling and the big stage races. Here, according to our cycling specialists, is what not to do when betting on the Giro d'Italia:
- Forget to study the stage
- Only bet on the prestige of a rider
- Disregard the composition of the individual cycling teams
- Not being informed about what the context of the stage may be
- Betting only on small odds
- Being attracted by high odds without having previously carried out any analysis
By avoiding these 6 traps and following the 5 tips given above, you stand a good chance of optimising your chances of success by betting on the Giro d'Italia. All absolutely not to be underestimated.
Conclusion: How to bet on the Giro d'Italia?
In summary, it is essential to know each stage in detail before betting on the Giro d'Italia. While the determination of the final winner depends on a certain logic (full line-up, maximum support for the riders within a team, race experience, etc.), predicting the winner of a stage remains a complicated matter in every season during the Giro d'Italia.
Therefore, don't hesitate for a moment to follow the daily forecasts of our cycling specialists. For each stage, they report their feelings and opinions on the potential winner of the day. It will be up to everyone to take advantage of this, to place as many sports bets as possible on the various online betting sites. For sports fans in general, we also suggest checking out all our sport predictions made for the other sports on the schedule.
Giro d'Italia 2024 : Frequently Asked Questions
The record number of victories at the Giro d'Italia belongs to three cyclists: Italians Alfredo Binda and Fausto Coppi, as well as Belgian Eddy Merckx, who have stood on the top step of the podium on five occasions.
The Giro d'Italia 2024 will start from Venaria Reale. The first stage of the Pink Race will be staged on Saturday 4 May with the arrival in Turin passing by Superga, where the Grande Torino team that died 75 years ago will be honoured.
The Giro d'Italia 2024 will end on 26 May with the Rome-Rome stage. La Corsa Rosa will arrive in the capital for the sixth time in its history.
The Giro d'Italia 2024 will be run mainly between northern and central Italy. The southernmost point of this edition is Pompeii.
Those tuning in from the United Kingdom can find television coverage of the Giro d’Italia on Eurosport (channels 412 and 413) and GCN. Streaming of La Corsa Rosa is also available through Discovery+.
There will be 21 stages of the Giro d'Italia 2024 for a total of 3,321.2 km. There will be a total of 42,900 metres of altitude difference compared to 51,400 in 2023.
Between 1946 and 1951, the Giro d'Italia offered a rather bizarre prize: the black jersey, awarded to the last in the classification. It became highly coveted among riders who were unable to show themselves in the top positions but was later abolished in protest by the riders. It was exceptionally reintroduced in 1967 and the black number was introduced for the 2008 edition with the same value.
The winner of the Giro d'Italia collects, between official compensation and prizes from sponsors, a sum of around 265,000 euros. A sum that is then divided equally with his team mates. The second place winner gets around 133,000 euros and the third 69,000.
The stage winner receives €11,000, the runner-up €5,500 and the third place €2,800. There are also two flying sprints within each stage and the winner earns €500.
Each stage in the pink jersey is worth €2,000, while the remaining jerseys (blue, cyclamen and white) are worth €750 per day. The cyclamen jersey rewards the overall winner with €10,000. The same prize for the white jersey of the best young rider, while the prize for the best climber is €5,000. Finally, the winning team in the team classification receives €5,000.
