Croatia vs Spain Prediction & Betting Tips - UEFA Nations League
Europe - UEFA Nations League
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by Devesh Jaganath | in UEFA Nations League Predictions
Croatia and Spain will face off in Group A3 of the UEFA Nations League on Tuesday night at Stadion Poljud. Five goals were scored when these sides met in Seville a week ago, and we are going for another high-scoring result here as our match prediction.
In just his third game back in charge of Vatreni, Slaven Bilić saw his side crumble to the heaviest defeat in their national team history, losing 7-0 to England on Saturday night. The Chequered Ones are now desperate for a response following that annihilation, but up next is an unbeaten Spain, the team that handed them their second-biggest defeat ever (6-0 in 2018) and thrashed them 4-1 on the road a week ago.
La Roja maintained their advantage at the top of Group A4 with a dominant display against the Czech Republic in Oviedo over the weekend. Luis de la Fuente’s side are now unbeaten in their last 41 matches (in regulation time) across all competitions, dating back to a friendly loss against Colombia back in 2024. Let’s get into the key stats!
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Croatia v Spain Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
8.8 | 6 | 1.26 |
|
|
10 | 6.07 | 1.31 |
|
|
9.7 | 5.9 | 1.28 |
|
|
9.7 | 5.9 | 1.28 |
|
|
7.11 | 5.04 | 1.34 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Croatia and Spain?
Our prediction for the Croatia vs Spain match is: over 3.5 goals.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 06/10/2026 between Croatia and Spain in UEFA Nations League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 25.63% for a win of Croatia against Spain with odds of 11.5 at Betsson.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Croatia vs Spain is 5.33% with odds of 6.4 at Tonybet.
- Our prediction model gives a 69.04% chance ⭐ for a win of Spain vs Croatia with odds of 1.34 at 22bet.
Croatia vs Spain Form
Croatia and Spain's standings in the UEFA Nations League
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1
|
9 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +6 |
|
3
|
3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -9 |
Croatia and Spain Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
3 Oct 2026 - UEFA Nations League
29 Sept 2026 - UEFA Nations League
26 Sept 2026 - UEFA Nations League
2 Jul 2026 - World Cup
27 Jun 2026 - World Cup
23 Jun 2026 - World Cup
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
3 Oct 2026 - UEFA Nations League
27 Jun 2026 - World Cup
7 Jun 2026 - International Friendlies
2 Jun 2026 - International Friendlies
26 Mar 2026 - International Friendlies
14 Nov 2025 - World Cup
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
29 Sept 2026 - UEFA Nations League
26 Sept 2026 - UEFA Nations League
2 Jul 2026 - World Cup
23 Jun 2026 - World Cup
17 Jun 2026 - World Cup
31 Mar 2026 - International Friendlies
6/6 (100%)
0/6 (0%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
3 Oct 2026 - UEFA Nations League
29 Sept 2026 - UEFA Nations League
26 Sept 2026 - UEFA Nations League
19 Jul 2026 - World Cup
14 Jul 2026 - World Cup
10 Jul 2026 - World Cup
6/6 (100%)
0/6 (0%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
3 Oct 2026 - UEFA Nations League
29 Sept 2026 - UEFA Nations League
19 Jul 2026 - World Cup
10 Jul 2026 - World Cup
2 Jul 2026 - World Cup
21 Jun 2026 - World Cup
6/6 (100%)
0/6 (0%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
26 Sept 2026 - UEFA Nations League
14 Jul 2026 - World Cup
6 Jul 2026 - World Cup
26 Jun 2026 - World Cup
15 Nov 2025 - World Cup
7 Sept 2025 - World Cup
Croatia vs Spain Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
17 %
17 %
67 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
29 Sept 2026 - UEFA Nations League
15 Jun 2024 - Euro
18 Jun 2023 - UEFA Nations League
28 Jun 2021 - Euro
15 Nov 2018 - UEFA Nations League
11 Sept 2018 - UEFA Nations League
Croatia - Spain: Form Analysis
Croatia kicked off their Nations League campaign with a 2-1 victory over the Czech Republic, but they enter this match off the back of two heavy defeats, losing 4-1 to Spain and 7-0 to England.
Vatreni were 4-0 down by the halftime whistle against the Three Lions. They ended the match with 36% possession, 1.39 xG, 17 touches in the opposition box, and just a single big chance created.
Bilic’s team have now lost back-to-back games for only the second time since October 2023. However, they have lost just two of their last 14 home matches across all competitions since November 2023.
Croatia are winless in their last four matches against Spain!
Meanwhile, Spain have picked up from where they left off at the 2026 World Cup. They beat England 3-2 and the Czech Republic 3-1, either side of that 4-1 victory over Croatia at home last week.
La Roja dominated in almost every statistical category in their victory over the Czechs, including possession (69%), expected goals (2.10), big chances created (5), shots at goal (18), and shots on target (10).
Spain have won their last five away matches across all competitions, scoring a combined tally of 19 goals (average 3.8). They have also kept clean sheets in three of their last four games on the road.
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Croatia vs Spain last Lineups
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Substitutes
D. Kotarski
I. Pandur
DefenderI. Smolcic
J. Sutalo
K. Jakic
MidfielderL. Sucic
J. Misic
M. Pasalic
N. Vlasic
ForwardM. Pasalic
I. Matanovic
A. Kramaric
J. Martínez
U. Simon
DefenderM. Cucurella
D. Huijsen
M. Pubill
MidfielderM. Merino
F. Lopez
M. Zubimendi
ForwardM. Oyarzabal
V. Munoz
Y. Pino
Croatia & Spain Squad Analysis
Perhaps the only bit of positivity from their match against England is that Croatia came away from it with no new injury concerns, though five of their players are at risk of a yellow card suspension.
Bilic made three changes at halftime against the Three Lions, with Igor Matanovic, Mario Pasalic, and Nikola Vlasic all brought off the bench, and the trio could get the nod from the start in this one.
Luka Modric was withdrawn before the hour mark last time out but should keep his place in midfield for what will be his 206th international cap.
Lamine Yamal has four goals and an assist in his three UNL matches this season!
The teenage sensation opened the scoring for Spain in the sixth minute against the Czech Republic, and now has 19 direct goal contributions in just 11 matches for club and country this season.
Ferran Torres, Nico Williams, and Alex Grimaldo all pulled out of the squad ahead of the last match through injury, while Pau Curbasi was rested. All four players are listed as doubts for this week’s clash.
Most goals and assists
Croatia
Spain
L. Modric
(1 Goals)
,
M. Pasalic
(1 Goals)
,
D. Beljo
(1 Goals)
L. Yamal
(4 Goals)
I. Perisic
(2 Assists)
D. Olmo
(2 Assists)
Croatia and Spain Stats in UEFA Nations League
Croatia - Spain Key Points
- All three of Croatia’s matches in this competition have ended with three or more goals.
- Croatia have scored two or more goals in six of their last eight home matches.
- All three of Spain’s matches in this competition have ended with over 3.5 goals.
- Spain have scored two or more goals in each of their last eight away matches.
- Spain beat Croatia 4-1 at home last week.
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Our Croatia vs Spain Prediction
Since their opening-round victory over the Czech Republic, things have taken a major dip for Croatia, as they are now set to enter this match following back-to-back defeats in which they conceded 11 goals and scored just once.
Spain, on the other hand, have been firing on all cylinders in this competition, scoring 10 goals in their three matches. Five goals were scored when these sides met a week ago, and we feel there are more goals to come in this one. Our Croatia vs Spain prediction is over 3.5 goals.
Croatia vs Spain Alternative Predictions
Spain wins
Lamine Yamal to score or assist
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Croatia vs Spain - FAQs
The UEFA Nations League match between Croatia and Spain will be broadcast live on Gol (Croatia) and RTVE Play (Spain). UK viewers can tune in to Prime Video UK.
Alternatively, you can follow all the action on our UEFA Nations League livescore tool.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
