Brazil - Brasileirão Serie A
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by Joseph King | in Football Predictions
Corinthians take on Palmeiras in the famed Derby Paulista for matchday 22 of the Brasileiro Serie A. 11th-place Timao will be looking to consolidate their place in the Copa Sudamericana positions while second-placed Verdao try to keep pace with leaders Flamengo. Check out our match prediction!
Corinthians fans will be in high spirits ahead of this fixture with their team grabbing an important 1-0 away victory over Athletico Paranaense in the Copa do Brasil semi-final first leg.
They’ve now won their last two matches on the bounce after also defeating Vasco 3-2 away from home in their last league appearance. It marks the first time that Timao have won back-to-back fixtures since May.
Corinthians’ 25 points total sees them holding a slim lead in the top 12 for qualification to next season’s Copa Sudamericana. Naturally, the goal will ultimately be to close the gap on the top six, whom they currently trail by seven points.
Palmeiras are putting together a fine season. They’re through to the Copa Libertadores quarter-finals after their win over Universitario and they are well-positioned in the league.
The record 12-time Serie A champions trail Flamengo by four points but have a game in hand advantage. They’re coming off a comfortable 3-0 home win over Sport Recife on Monday, extending their unbeaten streak in the league to eight matches (W6, D2).
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The Best Betting Odds for Corinthians v Palmeiras Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.25 | 3.2 | 2.3 |
|
|
3.75 | 2.88 | 2.15 |
|
|
3.6 | 2.9 | 2.15 |
|
|
3.6 | 3 | 2.2 |
|
|
3.5 | 3.1 | 2.2 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Corinthians and Palmeiras?
Our prediction for the Corinthians vs Palmeiras match is: Palmeiras wins the match.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 31/08/2025 between Corinthians and Palmeiras in Brasileirão Serie A :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 25.05% for a win of Corinthians against Palmeiras with odds of 4.08 at 22bet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Corinthians vs Palmeiras is 35.01% with odds of 3.2 at Bet365.
- Our prediction model gives a 39.93% chance ⭐ for a win of Palmeiras vs Corinthians with odds of 2.3 at Bet365.
Corinthians - Palmeiras Prediction and Best Odds:
| Corinthians Palmeiras Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Palmeiras wins | 39.93% | 2.3 at Bet365 |
| Under 2.5 | 54.9% | 1.85 at Stake |
| Both Team To Score | 43.75% | |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Palmeiras | 18.2% | 5.25 at Ladbrokes |
Corinthians vs Palmeiras Form
Corinthians and Palmeiras's standings in the Brasileirão Serie A
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1
|
61 | 27 | 19 | 4 | 4 | 28 |
|
13
|
33 | 28 | 8 | 9 | 11 | -5 |
Corinthians and Palmeiras Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
27 Aug 2025 - Copa do Brasil
24 Aug 2025 - Brasileirão Serie A
16 Aug 2025 - Brasileirão Serie A
11 Aug 2025 - Brasileirão Serie A
6 Aug 2025 - Copa do Brasil
3 Aug 2025 - Brasileirão Serie A
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
16 Aug 2025 - Brasileirão Serie A
3 Aug 2025 - Brasileirão Serie A
30 Jul 2025 - Copa do Brasil
23 Jul 2025 - Brasileirão Serie A
13 Jul 2025 - Brasileirão Serie A
1 Jun 2025 - Brasileirão Serie A
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
27 Aug 2025 - Copa do Brasil
24 Aug 2025 - Brasileirão Serie A
11 Aug 2025 - Brasileirão Serie A
6 Aug 2025 - Copa do Brasil
26 Jul 2025 - Brasileirão Serie A
19 Jul 2025 - Brasileirão Serie A
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
25 Aug 2025 - Brasileirão Serie A
21 Aug 2025 - Copa Libertadores
17 Aug 2025 - Brasileirão Serie A
14 Aug 2025 - Copa Libertadores
10 Aug 2025 - Brasileirão Serie A
6 Aug 2025 - Copa do Brasil
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
25 Aug 2025 - Brasileirão Serie A
21 Aug 2025 - Copa Libertadores
10 Aug 2025 - Brasileirão Serie A
6 Aug 2025 - Copa do Brasil
26 Jul 2025 - Brasileirão Serie A
20 Jul 2025 - Brasileirão Serie A
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
17 Aug 2025 - Brasileirão Serie A
14 Aug 2025 - Copa Libertadores
3 Aug 2025 - Brasileirão Serie A
30 Jul 2025 - Copa do Brasil
23 Jul 2025 - Brasileirão Serie A
23 Jun 2025 - Club World Cup
Corinthians vs Palmeiras Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
50 %
33 %
17 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
6 Aug 2025 - Copa do Brasil
30 Jul 2025 - Copa do Brasil
12 Apr 2025 - Brasileirão Serie A
27 Mar 2025 - Paulista Serie A1
16 Mar 2025 - Paulista Serie A1
6 Feb 2025 - Paulista Serie A1
Players list
H. Souza
DefenderRamalho
G. Henrique
F. Angileri
J. Pedro
MidfielderRyan
Vitinho
Breno
C. de Menezes Junior
ForwardM. Depay
Talles Magno
Weverton
DefenderKhellven
G. Gomez
Murilo
J. Piquerez
MidfielderF. Torres
A. Moreno
L. Evangelista
ForwardR. Sosa
V. Roque
F. Lopez
Substitutes
F. Longo
DefenderJ. Pedro
F. Torres
C. de Menezes Junior
Hugo
Ryan
Kayke
Bahia
Andre
ForwardVitinho
A. Romero
Talles Magno
M. Lomba
C. Miguel
DefenderMicael
A. Giay
B. Fuchs
Jefte
MidfielderE. Martinez
R. Sosa
F. Torres
Luighi
A. Elias
E. Bele
Missing players
Matheuzinho
ForwardA. Carrillo
V. Figueiredo
R. Veiga
ForwardB. Rodrigues
Paulinho
Most goals and assists
Corinthians
Palmeiras
Y. Alberto
(7 Goals)
V. Roque
(16 Goals)
, 
F. Lopez
(16 Goals)
M. Depay
(4 Assists)
Mauricio
(9 Assists)
Corinthians - Palmeiras Key Points
- Palmeiras have been excellent on their travels this season and hold the league’s best away record at 7-1-1.
- Corinthians have failed to win at home in their last five league appearances (W2, D3).
- Corinthians will be without their top goalscorer Yuri Alberto.
- The visitors have won six of their last seven in the Brasileiro Serie A.
- Corinthians rank 12th in xG conceded (26.2), while Palmeiras ranks second (16.3).
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Our Corinthians vs Palmeiras Prediction
While the old adage states that “form goes out the window” on derby day, it’s hard to ignore the stark contrast between these two teams. Palmeiras are having a superb season and have impressed on their travels.
Corinthians, on the other hand, have largely been inconsistent. The hosts did beat Palmeiras in both legs just last month in the Copa do Brasil, which should give them confidence. However, that also makes this a revenge spot for Palmeiras, who are going to be extremely difficult to beat three times in a row. Our Corinthians vs Palmeiras prediction: Palmeiras wins the match.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Corinthians Palmeiras
| Corinthians vs Palmeiras | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corinthians wins | 2.75 | 3.25 | +18.2% |
| Draw | 3.1 | 3.2 | +3.2% |
| Palmeiras wins | 2.55 | 2.3 | -9.8% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Palmeiras is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 9.8% since opening
- The probability of this result was 39.2% and is now 43.5% (4.3%)
Use £/€50 free bets for the Corinthians vs. Palmeiras game!
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Try your luck on this year's Brasileirão Serie A! You need to make your qualifying bet of €/£10 within 30 days of opening an account and this can be on any sport with at least one selection priced at 1.2 (1/5) or bigger.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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