ATP - ATP Japan Open
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by Daniel Ngulu | in Tennis Predictions
Top seed Carlos Alcaraz will play the unseeded Brandon Nakshima in the quarter-finals of the Japan Open. Another win for Alcaraz in this fixture will send him to his 11th semi-final of the season. Read on to find our prediction for this match.
Carlos Alcaraz has been excellent in 2025. With over 60 wins, he has won seven titles and finished as runner-up twice. This is the world number one’s best tour season and is now on course to join an elite group of players.
Alcaraz needs just three more titles to become the sixth Men’s player to win at least 10 tour titles in a season. The Spaniard, yet to lose a set this week, defeated Zizou Bergs in the last round.
Brandon Nakashima has struggled against ATP top 10 opposition. With a dismal 2-16 record in such matches, the American has lost all eight duels he has faced this year against top 10 players.
He now faces the in-form player in 2025 seeking to end this negative streak and march to the semis for a fourth time this season. The 24-year-old defeated the qualifier Marton Fucsovics in the last round in straight sets.
His 31st win in 55 outings this year has moved him to 32nd in the live ranking.
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The Best Betting Odds for Carlos Alcaraz v Brandon Nakashima Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|
|
1.1 | 8 |
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1.07 | 9.5 |
|
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1.07 | 8 |
|
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1.06 | 9 |
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1.04 | 7.5 |
|
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Who will win the Carlos Alcaraz vs Brandon Nakashima Tennis game?
Our prediction for the Carlos Alcaraz vs Brandon Nakashima match is: Alcaraz at -5.5 on total games.
The best winner predictions and betting odds for the Carlos Alcaraz vs Brandon Nakashima game on 28/09/2025 of the current ATP Japan Open season:
- Carlos Alcaraz has a 80.7% chance to win against Brandon Nakashima according to Bet365 ⭐ with the odds of 1.1.
- Brandon Nakashima has a 19.3% probability of winning facing Carlos Alcaraz ⭐ with odds of 9.5 at Betway.
Carlos Alcaraz vs Brandon Nakashima Best Prediction and Odds
Based on the bookmaker's betting lines in this match, Carlos Alcaraz has a 80.7 % chance to win.
| Prediction | Chance to win |
|---|---|
| Carlos Alcaraz | 80.7 % |
| Brandon Nakashima | 19.3 % |
Carlos Alcaraz vs Brandon Nakashima Form
Carlos Alcaraz and Brandon Nakashima Last Matches
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
27 Sep 2025 - ATP Japan Open
25 Sep 2025 - ATP Japan Open
21 Sep 2025 - Laver Cup,Singles Matches
20 Sep 2025 - Laver Cup,Singles Matches
7 Sep 2025 - ATP US Open
5 Sep 2025 - ATP US Open
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
26 Sep 2025 - ATP Japan Open
25 Sep 2025 - ATP Japan Open
22 Sep 2025 - ATP Chengdu Open
21 Sep 2025 - ATP Chengdu Open
19 Sep 2025 - ATP Chengdu Open
27 Aug 2025 - ATP US Open
Carlos Alcaraz vs Brandon Nakashima Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
19 May 2021 - Oeiras 3, Portugal, Qualifying
Carlos Alcaraz - Brandon Nakashima Key Points
- Alcaraz has won both previous meetings with Nakashima.
- Nakashima has suffered eight losses this year to ATP top 10 players.
- 13 of Alcaraz’s last 16 wins have been by straight sets.
- In Tokyo, Alcaraz hasn’t lost more than seven games a contest.
- Alcaraz has won 64 matches this season.
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Our Carlos Alcaraz vs Brandon Nakashima Prediction
In our Carlos Alcaraz v Brandon Nakashima prediction, we have Alcaraz at -5.5 on total games. Alcaraz has been in magnificent form this season and is the heavy favourite to emerge champion in Tokyo. He has won over 60 matches in 2025 and, in almost every contest, has made light work of his opponent.
Winning against the Spaniard is almost impossible, as his opponents, especially those outside the top 10, have struggled to win even a set. With Nakashima struggling against the ATP’s best players this year, we are likely to witness another dominant win for Alcaraz.
Get a retirement guarantee for the Carlos Alcaraz vs. Brandon Nakashima game!
When you place a bet on the match between Carlos Alcaraz and Brandon Nakashima you can get a retirement guarantee with bet365. This means that your bet will be paid out as a winner if your opponent retires.
It does not matter whether you bet on Carlos Alcaraz or Brandon Nakashima , if your opponent has to retire from the match with an injury, you will get paid as a winner!
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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