Europe - Champions League
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by Kennedy Kechula | in Champions League Predictions
Portuguese giants Benfica have Azerbaijani opposition in the shape of Qarabag to start with in the main draw of the 2025/26 Champions League. Benfica will play host in this matchday one encounter, staging the match at their Estadio da Luz base. Both of these teams went through the rigors of qualification before booking their league phase slots. Seeking to start their journeys on a high, we have a prediction for this match below.
Benfica joined the qualifying campaign at the third-round stage and saw off French side Nice and then Fenerbahce in the playoff round. In all four matches, they went unbeaten and didn’t concede a goal.
Qarabag started much earlier in the qualifiers, playing from the second round. They lost the final game of the qualifiers but won on aggregate against Ferencvaros, thus proceeding. This being their second venture in the Champions League main draw, the Azerbaijanis will know for sure the competition’s unforgiving nature.
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The Best Betting Odds for Benfica Lisbon v Qarabag FK Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.18 | 7 | 13 |
|
|
1.18 | 6.5 | 13 |
|
|
1.2 | 6.5 | 15 |
|
|
1.2 | 6.5 | 13 |
|
|
1.19 | 6.75 | 15 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Benfica Lisbon and Qarabag FK?
Our prediction for the Benfica Lisbon vs Qarabag FK match is: BTTS – No.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 16/09/2025 between Benfica Lisbon and Qarabag FK in Champions League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 52.97% for a win of Benfica Lisbon against Qarabag FK with odds of 1.21 at Vbet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Benfica Lisbon vs Qarabag FK is 12.34% with odds of 7 at Bet365.
- Our prediction model gives a 34.69% chance ⭐ for a win of Qarabag FK vs Benfica Lisbon with odds of 15 at William Hill.
Benfica Lisbon vs Qarabag FK Form
Benfica Lisbon and Qarabag FK Last Matches
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
12 Sep 2025 - Liga Portugal
31 Aug 2025 - Liga Portugal
27 Aug 2025 - Champions League
23 Aug 2025 - Liga Portugal
20 Aug 2025 - Champions League
16 Aug 2025 - Liga Portugal
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
12 Sep 2025 - Liga Portugal
27 Aug 2025 - Champions League
23 Aug 2025 - Liga Portugal
12 Aug 2025 - Champions League
26 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
28 Jun 2025 - Club World Cup
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
31 Aug 2025 - Liga Portugal
20 Aug 2025 - Champions League
16 Aug 2025 - Liga Portugal
6 Aug 2025 - Champions League
31 Jul 2025 - Portugal Super Cup
16 Jun 2025 - Club World Cup
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
12 Sep 2025 - Topaz Premier League
31 Aug 2025 - Topaz Premier League
27 Aug 2025 - Champions League
22 Aug 2025 - Topaz Premier League
19 Aug 2025 - Champions League
12 Aug 2025 - Champions League
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
12 Sep 2025 - Topaz Premier League
27 Aug 2025 - Champions League
22 Aug 2025 - Topaz Premier League
12 Aug 2025 - Champions League
30 Jul 2025 - Champions League
11 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
31 Aug 2025 - Topaz Premier League
19 Aug 2025 - Champions League
5 Aug 2025 - Champions League
23 Jul 2025 - Champions League
15 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
24 May 2025 - Topaz Premier League
Benfica Lisbon - Qarabag FK: Form Analysis
Benfica have been enjoying a lot of positivity in recent seasons. They had a tough run at the Club World Cup this summer, but after that, they are playing a different brand of football.
So far in the season, Bruno Lage’s men are unbeaten. They are coming off a 1-1 draw with Santa Clara in the Primeira Liga, that being only the second time in nine matches that they failed to win.
At no point in the season have Benfica fallen behind. Benfica have been into the knockout rounds of the Champions League three times in the last five seasons.
Benfica are on a good run, and head into this game eyeing a 10th unbeaten outing.
The Champions League and all it represents can be a ruthless venture when sides like Qarabag draw the giants. This is a step up from the Europa League, where they had a torrid campaign last season, only winning one of the eight league phase matches.
Qarabag finished bottom in the second-tier competition in Europe, which makes this a tougher experience. They went through the Champions League qualifiers, beating Shelbourne, Shkendija, and Ferencvaros.
Their form this season has been a mixed bag; away from the qualifiers, Qarabag have a win, a draw, and a loss back at home.
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Benfica Lisbon vs Qarabag FK last Lineups
Formation : 4 - 4 - 2
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Benfica Lisbon & Qarabag FK Squad Analysis
Benfica have been fortunate to enter this stage without a lot of new injuries to deal with. The usual culprits, Alexander Bah, Manu Silva, Bruma, and Dodi Lukebakio, remain on the long-term injury list.
Amar Dedic is the most notable player to be missed here. The Bosnian defender picked up a knee injury in the just concluded international break. Dedic’s importance as a player goes beyond his defensive duties.
Firstly, the 23-year-old can play anywhere in defence but this season he’s also scored a goal and provided an assist in the league. In his primary duties, defensively, Dedic has won 0.79 tackles per 90 minutes and 5.53 duels.
The ever-present Nicolas Otamendi will be on show again for Benfica, playing the 14th season since his Champoions League debut.
Qarabag haven't reported any injuries ahead of this encounter. With that, we will not expect many changes from the team used in the qualifiers. Nariman Akhundzade, for example, will still be leading the attack. He scored three times in the qualifying matches and will be trusted here.
Most goals and assists
Benfica Lisbon
Qarabag FK
V. Pavlidis
(2 Goals)
A. Dedic
(1 Assists)
, 
A. Schjelderup
(1 Assists)
,
F. Aursnes
(1 Assists)
Benfica Lisbon - Qarabag FK Key Points
- Both sides scored in only four of Benfica’s last 10 home UCL matches.
- Seven times in their last nine matches, Benfica kept clean sheets.
- At least one side failed to score in three of Qarabag’s last four away UCL games.
- Benfica haven't conceded a goal in the last four Champions League matches.
- Five of Qarabag’s last eight UCL matches had only one team scoring.
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Our Benfica Lisbon vs Qarabag FK Prediction
Benfica will surely be the favorites in this match. Their run in the season so far has shown teams like Qarabag don’t stand a chance against the Eagles. The one area the Portuguese side has been superb in is the defence.
While they haven't kept clean sheets in the last two matches, they didn’t concede in any of the earlier seven. Qarabag will want to beat that, especially as they have scored in each of their last six Champions League matches. However, our prediction for Benfica v Qarabag is: BTTS – No.
Benfica Lisbon vs Qarabag FK - Other Interesting Predictions
Benfica to win without conceding
The host team’s matches in the qualification process showed straightforward dominance in attack and defence. Generally, Benfica failed to score just once in their nine matches this season.
Last season in Europe, Qarabag failed to win an away match at the league stage, and we expect them to start in the same fashion. That’s why our second prediction would be for Benfica to win without conceding.
Win free tickets to Benfica Lisbon vs. Qarabag FK at Bet365!
With the UEFA Champions League 2025/26 season starts, bet365 offers free tickets for their users, including Benfica Lisbon vs. Qarabag FK match!
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Benfica Lisbon vs Qarabag FK match : Frequently asked questions
The Benfica v Qarabag match will be played at the Estadio da Luz in Lisbon.
The Benfica v Qarabag match will be played on Tuesday, 16th September.
This match involves teams from Portugal and Azerbaijan. If in Portugal, you can get it live through Sport TV and the highlights through DAZN. CBC Sport will have it covered for Azerbaijan followers. Meanwhile, Sportytrader, via the live Champions League portal, will carry the match updates.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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