Germany - Bundesliga
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by Daniel Ngulu | in Bundesliga Predictions
The first Der Klassiker of the 2025/26 campaign is here! We start it off at the Allianz Arena in Munich. Bayern Munich will be playing host to Borussia Dortmund in a clash of two sides in good runs of form. The spice in this game is added in the fact that these two are unbeaten ahead of their first meeting this season. We have a prediction for this match below.
Across all competitions this season, Bayern Munich have played 10 matches, and they’ve picked up wins in each one of them. The Bavarians are having their best start to a season spanning five decades. Now they get to face arguably their toughest opponent so far this season; can they keep up?
Dortmund trail the leaders by four points, and if they are to battle for the league title, this is their first real chance to slow down their biggest rivals. It is their second straight match against a top-three side.
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The Best Betting Odds for Bayern Munich v Borussia Dortmund Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.38 | 5.25 | 7 |
|
|
1.33 | 5.5 | 8 |
|
|
1.36 | 5 | 7 |
|
|
1.38 | 5.25 | 7 |
|
|
1.32 | 5.8 | 7.5 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund?
Our prediction for the Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund match is: Over 3.5.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 18/10/2025 between Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund in Bundesliga :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 53.26% for a win of Bayern Munich against Borussia Dortmund with odds of 1.42 at 22bet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund is 18.93% with odds of 6.02 at 888Starz.
- Our prediction model gives a 27.81% chance ⭐ for a win of Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern Munich with odds of 8.05 at 888Starz.
Bayern Munich - Borussia Dortmund Prediction and Best Odds:
| Bayern Munich Borussia Dortmund Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich wins | 53.26% | 1.42 at 22bet |
| Over 2.5 goals | 73.93% | 1.38 at Stake |
| Both Team To Score | 40.83% | 1.55 at Betway |
| Half-time / Full-time : Bayern Munich/Bayern Munich | 26.47% | 1.95 at Bet365 |
Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund Form
Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund's standings in the Bundesliga
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1
|
21 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 23 |
|
4
|
14 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund Last Matches
6/6 (100%)
0/6 (0%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
4 Oct 2025 - Bundesliga
30 Sep 2025 - Champions League
26 Sep 2025 - Bundesliga
20 Sep 2025 - Bundesliga
17 Sep 2025 - Champions League
13 Sep 2025 - Bundesliga
6/6 (100%)
0/6 (0%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
26 Sep 2025 - Bundesliga
17 Sep 2025 - Champions League
13 Sep 2025 - Bundesliga
22 Aug 2025 - Bundesliga
7 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
7 Aug 2025 - Telekom Cup
6/6 (100%)
0/6 (0%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
4 Oct 2025 - Bundesliga
30 Sep 2025 - Champions League
20 Sep 2025 - Bundesliga
30 Aug 2025 - Bundesliga
27 Aug 2025 - DFB Pokal
16 Aug 2025 - German Super Cup
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
4 Oct 2025 - Bundesliga
1 Oct 2025 - Champions League
27 Sep 2025 - Bundesliga
21 Sep 2025 - Bundesliga
16 Sep 2025 - Champions League
13 Sep 2025 - Bundesliga
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
4 Oct 2025 - Bundesliga
1 Oct 2025 - Champions League
21 Sep 2025 - Bundesliga
31 Aug 2025 - Bundesliga
10 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
2 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
27 Sep 2025 - Bundesliga
16 Sep 2025 - Champions League
13 Sep 2025 - Bundesliga
23 Aug 2025 - Bundesliga
18 Aug 2025 - DFB Pokal
30 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
33 %
50 %
17 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
12 Apr 2025 - Bundesliga
30 Nov 2024 - Bundesliga
30 Mar 2024 - Bundesliga
4 Nov 2023 - Bundesliga
1 Apr 2023 - Bundesliga
8 Oct 2022 - Bundesliga
Bayern Munich - Borussia Dortmund: Form Analysis
This match has the potential to shape the Bundesliga title race, despite being a matchday seven clash. A win for Bayern Munich opens up a seven-point gap. A loss throws everything wide open.
Bayern Munich have played in four different competitions already, and they have won all, totaling 10 matches. This will be a different kind, even though they play at home.
In the last three meetings with Dortmund, Bayern failed to win. They conceded first in all the three matches, but in the latest two, they fought back to register draws.
Both Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund are unbeaten going into the 137th Der Klassiker.
Dortmund are unbeaten against Bayern Munich since their 4-0 defeat at home in November 2023. They’ve managed a win and two draws and will really be disappointed at not having won all three, having scored first in all.
They come into this game straight after another big battle with third-placed RB Leipzig, which ended 1-1. Their big difference from Bayern Munich is that BVB haven't been scoring as many goals as their hosts, though they are as solid defensively.
Dortmund’s 12 goals in six league matches are 13 less than Bayern’s at this stage of the season. Defensively, they’ve conceded four, compared to Bayern’s three.
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Bayern Munich against Borussia Dortmund Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 3 - 5 - 2
Missing players
H. Ito
MidfielderA. Davies
J. Musiala
E. Can
C. Campbell
ForwardJ. Duranville
Bayern Munich & Borussia Dortmund Squad Analysis
Bayern Munich will still be without their long-term absentees, Alphonso Davies and Jamal Musiala. Davies is nursing a knee injury, which has ruled him out so far in the season.
The Canadian international is expected to be out until the early weeks of December. He has company in the treatment room in the shape of Musiala.
The highly rated youngster will leave sooner, with his appointed date being the final weeks of November. It is not all gloom at Bayern, though, with Harry Kane available, having had 14 goal contributions in just six matches.
Luis Diaz has five goals and four assists at Bayern Munich.
At Dortmund, the goal-scoring burdens will be piled on Guinean Sehrou Guirassy, even though his numbers are seriously dwarfed.
In five matches, he has five goal contributions—four goals and an assist. Still, the striker enters the game ranking high on match points. He has attempted 18 shots and has an xG of 4.66.
Unlike at Bayern, in Dortmund the goals are spread out, and Karim Adeyemi is another key man, with three goal contributions in six matches.
Most goals and assists
Bayern Munich
Borussia Dortmund
H. Kane
(18 Goals)
L. Diaz
(4 Assists)
, 
M. Olise
(4 Assists)
M. Sabitzer
(3 Assists)
, 
K. Adeyemi
(3 Assists)
, 
J. Ryerson
(3 Assists)
Bayern Munich - Borussia Dortmund Key Points
- Dortmund’s last five away matches produced a total of 19 goals.
- 19 goals were netted in Bayern Munich’s last four home matches.
- On average, 3.5 goals were scored in Borussia Dortmund’s last five games.
- Bayern Munich scored at least three goals in each of their last five matches.
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Our Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction
Bayern Munich have found it tough to beat Dortmund in recent meetings, but goals keep flowing in this fixture. Across their two league meetings last season, six goals were scored, and three of the last five had at least four goals scored.
Ahead of this match, both sides have been good in attack, Bayern only better. The Bavarians have averaged 4.1 goals per game, and the last time they beat Dortmund, it was by four goals. Repeating the feat might be tough, but we expect a high-scoring game. Our prediction for Bayern Munich v Borussia Dortmund is for Over 3.5.
Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund - Other Interesting Predictions
Bayern Munich to win
Though these two sides have been formidable so far, if we were to pick a winner, the odds favor Bayern Munich. The Bavarians have won all their 10 matches this season and are playing at home. They are the best defensively in the league and are on a superb scoring run. Our second prediction would be for Bayern Munich to win.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Bayern Munich Borussia Dortmund
| Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich wins | 1.36 | 1.38 | +1.5% |
| Draw | 5 | 5.25 | +5.0% |
| Borussia Dortmund wins | 7.5 | 7 | -6.7% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Bayern Munich is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 1.5% since opening
- The probability of this result was 73.5% and is now 72.5% (-1.1%)
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Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund match : Frequently asked questions
The Bayern Munich v Borussia Dortmund match will be played on Saturday, 18th October.
The Bayern Munich v Borussia Dortmund match will be played at the Allianz Arena.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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