Atletico Madrid vs Arsenal Prediction & Betting Tips - Champions League
Europe - Champions League
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by Devesh Jaganath | in Champions League Predictions
An adrenaline-charge atmosphere awaits at the Metropolitano on Wednesday, as Atletico Madrid and Arsenal seek to seize an advantage in the first leg of the Champions League semi-finals. The winner of this two-legged tie between Los Colchoneros and the Gunners will meet either PSG or Bayern Munich in the final next month. Check out our match prediction below!
The old image of a cautious, conservative unit under Diego Simeone has been torn apart, as Atleti have reinvented themselves on the continental stage this term. Los Rojiblancos have stormed to a club-record 34 UCL goals this season and are hoping to win Europe’s grandest competition for the first time ever.
Mikel Arteta’s side, on the other hand, have endured a rollercoaster of emotions over the past month, watching their hopes of a potential quadruple go up in flames. Out of both domestic cups and with their Premier League title hopes diminishing, lifting a maiden European crown feels vital if they are to silence the dreaded “bottling it” narrative once and for all. Let’s get into the key stats!
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Atletico Madrid v Arsenal Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.25 | 3.25 | 2.35 |
|
|
3.18 | 3.24 | 2.32 |
|
|
3.22 | 3.24 | 2.3 |
|
|
3.25 | 3.25 | 2.3 |
|
|
3.2 | 3.35 | 2.26 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Atletico Madrid and Arsenal?
Our prediction for the Atletico Madrid vs Arsenal match is: BTTS.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 29/04/2026 between Atletico Madrid and Arsenal in Champions League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 37.05% for a win of Atletico Madrid against Arsenal with odds of 3.33 at 888Starz.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Atletico Madrid vs Arsenal is 22.58% with odds of 3.37 at 888Starz.
- Our prediction model gives a 40.37% chance ⭐ for a win of Arsenal vs Atletico Madrid with odds of 2.39 at 888Starz.
Atletico Madrid - Arsenal Prediction and Best Odds:
| Atletico Madrid Arsenal Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Arsenal wins | 40.37% | 2.39 at 888Starz |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.61% | 2.23 at Melbet |
| Both Team To Score | 68.75% | |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Arsenal | 15.83% | 5.75 at LSbet |
Atletico Madrid vs Arsenal Form
Atletico Madrid and Arsenal Last Matches
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
25 Apr 2026 - LaLiga
22 Apr 2026 - LaLiga
18 Apr 2026 - Copa del Rey
14 Apr 2026 - Champions League
11 Apr 2026 - LaLiga
8 Apr 2026 - Champions League
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
25 Apr 2026 - LaLiga
18 Apr 2026 - Copa del Rey
14 Apr 2026 - Champions League
4 Apr 2026 - LaLiga
14 Mar 2026 - LaLiga
10 Mar 2026 - Champions League
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
5/6 (83%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
22 Apr 2026 - LaLiga
11 Apr 2026 - LaLiga
8 Apr 2026 - Champions League
22 Mar 2026 - LaLiga
18 Mar 2026 - Champions League
3 Mar 2026 - Copa del Rey
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
25 Apr 2026 - Premier League
19 Apr 2026 - Premier League
15 Apr 2026 - Champions League
11 Apr 2026 - Premier League
7 Apr 2026 - Champions League
4 Apr 2026 - FA Cup
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
25 Apr 2026 - Premier League
15 Apr 2026 - Champions League
11 Apr 2026 - Premier League
22 Mar 2026 - Carabao Cup
17 Mar 2026 - Champions League
14 Mar 2026 - Premier League
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
19 Apr 2026 - Premier League
7 Apr 2026 - Champions League
4 Apr 2026 - FA Cup
11 Mar 2026 - Champions League
7 Mar 2026 - FA Cup
4 Mar 2026 - Premier League
Atletico Madrid vs Arsenal Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
25 %
50 %
25 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
21 Oct 2025 - Champions League
26 Jul 2018 - International Champions Cup
3 May 2018 - Europa League
26 Apr 2018 - Europa League
Atletico Madrid - Arsenal: Form Analysis
Atletico Madrid booked their spot in their first UEFA Champions League semi-final since 2016-17 by edging their La Liga rivals Barcelona 3-2 on aggregate in the quarter-finals earlier this month.
The Red and Whites have not been in the best form lately, though, with their 3-2 victory over Bilbao at the weekend marking just their third win in their last 10 matches across all competitions (L7).
However, this week’s hosts have won five of their seven UCL home games this season and have only lost two of their last nine games at this venue in all competitions - both against Barca.
Atleti have scored 21 UCL home goals this season (averaging three goals per 90)!
Meanwhile, despite a far from convincing display, Arsenal managed to hold on to a slender advantage against Sporting Lisbon in the quarter-final and got through to the final four 1-0 on aggregate.
The Gunners’ form has also taken a notable dip in recent weeks, as their 1-0 win against Newcastle on Saturday ended a three-game winless run and was just their second victory in seven across all competitions.
The visitors have won five of their six away games (D1) in this competition and kept clean sheets in each of those victories. However, they have only won one of their last four on the road in all competitions.
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Atletico Madrid against Arsenal Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 4 - 2
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Substitutes
S. Esquivel Gamez
J. Musso
DefenderC. Lenglet
N. Molina
R. Le Normand
J. Bonar
MidfielderO. Vargas
R. Martinez Moya
J. Diaz
A. Baena
T. Almada
A. Sorloth
T. Setford
K. Arrizabalaga
DefenderC. Mosquera
M. Salmon
R. Calafiori
MidfielderE. Eze
M. Dowman
M. Lewis-Skelly
C. Norgaard
ForwardG. Jesus
B. Saka
L. Trossard
Missing players
J. Gimenez
MidfielderN. Gonzalez
P. Barrios
K. Hein
DefenderJ. Timber
MidfielderM. Merino
ForwardK. Havertz
Atletico Madrid & Arsenal Squad Analysis
Atleti are sweating over the fitness of Julian Alvarez for this match. The Argentine is the team’s top scorer with nine goals in Europe this season, but has been dealing with “physical discomfort” in recent weeks and is listed as a minor doubt.
The Red and Whites were dealt a major blow in the lead-up to this fixture, with Pablo Barrios sustaining a hamstring injury. Jose Gimenez is also ruled out, while Ademola Lookman and David Hancko will face late fitness tests.
On a more positive note for Simeone, Alexander Sorloth returned to the squad from injury at the weekend and bagged a brace against Bilbao. He will be in contention to start this match, either alongside or in place of Antoine Griezmann.
Alvarez has 13 direct goal contributions in the UCL this season (9 goals, 4assists)!
As for Arsenal, Eberechi Eze scored what turned out to be the winner against the Magpies at the weekend, but he was forced off with a knock in the second half and is listed as a doubt for this one.
Kai Havertz is another who could miss this match after only lasting 34 minutes this past weekend. If the German is unable to feature, Viktor Gyokeres is the most likely to get the nod to lead the line.
Despite having a relatively underwhelming season domestically, Gabriel Martinelli has been the Gunners’ main man in attack in Europe this season, notching up six UCL goals and two assists in 11 appearances.
Most goals and assists
Atletico Madrid
Arsenal
J. Alvarez
(10 Goals)
G. Martinelli
(6 Goals)
J. Alvarez
(4 Assists)
, 
A. Lookman
(4 Assists)
L. Trossard
(5 Assists)
Atletico Madrid - Arsenal Key Points
- Eight of Atletico Madrid’s last 10 matches in all competitions have ended with both teams scoring.
- All seven of Atletico Madrid’s home games in this competition have ended with both teams scoring.
- Atletico Madrid are averaging three goals per 90 in home games in the UCL this season.
- Arsenal have scored in every away game in the Champions League this season.
- Arsenal have only kept two clean sheets in their last nine away matches in all competitions.
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Our Atletico Madrid vs Arsenal Prediction
We have seen a major shift from the norm with Atletico Madrid this season, as they seem to have abandoned their traditional cautious approach and are now the third-highest-scoring team in the UCL with 34 goals, behind only PSG and Bayern Munich.
While Arsenal have been hailed as the best defence in Europe this season, they have not been convincing of late, especially on the road, where they have only kept two clean sheets in their last nine games in all competitions. Our Atletico Madrid vs Arsenal prediction is BTTS.
Atletico Madrid vs Arsenal Alternative Predictions
Julian Alvarez to score or assist
Draw
We genuinely feel that there is no clear favourite in this match, and that is reinforced by the current bookmaker odds. Given that we expect both teams to get on the scoresheet, we’re going for this match to end in a score draw.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Atletico Madrid Arsenal
| Atletico Madrid vs Arsenal | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid wins | 3.02 | 3.33 | +10.3% |
| Draw | 3.41 | 3.37 | -1.2% |
| Arsenal wins | 2.56 | 2.39 | -6.6% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Arsenal is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 6.6% since opening
- The probability of this result was 39.1% and is now 41.8% (2.8%)
Atletico Madrid vs Arsenal - FAQs
The Champions League semi-final first leg between Atletico Madrid and Arsenal will take place on April 29 at 19:00 UTC.
The Champions League semi-final first leg between Atletico Madrid and Arsenal will be played at the Metropolitano Stadium in Madrid.
The Champions League semi-final first leg between Atletico Madrid and Arsenal will be broadcast on Telefonica in Spain and Prime Video in the UK.
Alternatively, you can follow all the action on our Champions League livescore tool.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
