Arsenal vs Atletico Madrid Prediction & Betting Tips - Champions League
Europe - Champions League
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by Kennedy Kechula | in Champions League Predictions
The two spots for the UEFA Champions League final will be decided this week. Budapest awaits the winner in the semi-final pitting Arsenal against Atletico Madrid. Going into this return leg encounter to be hosted at the Emirates Stadium, the tie is delicately poised at 1-1. While Arsenal chase a record for the longest unbeaten run in Europe, Atletico looks to extend a perfect semi-final record against English teams. Predictions here do favor the Gunners, though, as they’ve only lost once in 15 home games against Spanish sides.
Arsenal are the only unbeaten side in the UCL this season, winning 10 of 13 matches. The last time they had a similar streak, they reached the final (2006). As Atletico have won just two of the last 13 matches against English teams, the hosts will be quite confident.
Arsenal’s home advantage will not worry Atletico more than their need to get Julian Alvarez ready for the game. He scored his 25th CL goal in the first leg, becoming the fastest Argentinian to hit that milestone, after just 41 games.
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Arsenal v Atletico Madrid Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.59 | 4.2 | 5.8 |
|
|
1.58 | 4.26 | 5.4 |
|
|
1.58 | 4.18 | 5.55 |
|
|
1.6 | 4 | 5.25 |
|
|
1.6 | 4.2 | 5.2 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Arsenal and Atletico Madrid?
Our prediction for the Arsenal vs Atletico Madrid match is: Arsenal wins.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 05/05/2026 between Arsenal and Atletico Madrid in Champions League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 50.79% for a win of Arsenal against Atletico Madrid with odds of 1.64 at Tonybet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Arsenal vs Atletico Madrid is 20.5% with odds of 4.34 at 888Starz.
- Our prediction model gives a 28.71% chance ⭐ for a win of Atletico Madrid vs Arsenal with odds of 5.8 at Stake.
Arsenal - Atletico Madrid Prediction and Best Odds:
| Arsenal Atletico Madrid Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Arsenal wins | 50.79% | 1.64 at Tonybet |
| Under 2.5 | 52.82% | 1.99 at Tonybet |
| Both Team To Score: No | 50.83% | |
| Half-time / Full-time : Arsenal/Arsenal | 21.46% | 2.5 at Bet365 |
Arsenal vs Atletico Madrid Form
Arsenal and Atletico Madrid Last Matches
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
2 May 2026 - Premier League
29 Apr 2026 - Champions League
25 Apr 2026 - Premier League
19 Apr 2026 - Premier League
15 Apr 2026 - Champions League
11 Apr 2026 - Premier League
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
2 May 2026 - Premier League
25 Apr 2026 - Premier League
15 Apr 2026 - Champions League
11 Apr 2026 - Premier League
22 Mar 2026 - Carabao Cup
17 Mar 2026 - Champions League
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
29 Apr 2026 - Champions League
19 Apr 2026 - Premier League
7 Apr 2026 - Champions League
4 Apr 2026 - FA Cup
11 Mar 2026 - Champions League
7 Mar 2026 - FA Cup
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
2 May 2026 - LaLiga
29 Apr 2026 - Champions League
25 Apr 2026 - LaLiga
22 Apr 2026 - LaLiga
18 Apr 2026 - Copa del Rey
14 Apr 2026 - Champions League
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
29 Apr 2026 - Champions League
25 Apr 2026 - LaLiga
18 Apr 2026 - Copa del Rey
14 Apr 2026 - Champions League
4 Apr 2026 - LaLiga
14 Mar 2026 - LaLiga
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
2 May 2026 - LaLiga
22 Apr 2026 - LaLiga
11 Apr 2026 - LaLiga
8 Apr 2026 - Champions League
22 Mar 2026 - LaLiga
18 Mar 2026 - Champions League
Arsenal vs Atletico Madrid Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
20 %
60 %
20 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
29 Apr 2026 - Champions League
21 Oct 2025 - Champions League
26 Jul 2018 - International Champions Cup
3 May 2018 - Europa League
26 Apr 2018 - Europa League
Arsenal - Atletico Madrid: Form Analysis
The nature of this game and the stakes mean neither side has an advantage after the opening leg. However, hosts Arsenal, with an impressive home record in the Champions League, will have the feeling of favorites. The Gunners have played six UCL matches at home this season and won five.
They only failed to score in their most recent match, but they are the only remaining unbeaten side in Europe (10W, 3D). One of the teams they beat this season was Atletico (4-0). Another win here will set a new record for Arsenal going 14 consecutive matches unbeaten in Europe. They warmed up for this one with a 3-0 win against Newcastle United.
In Europe, Arsenal lost just once in 24 home matches, winning 17.
Atletico Madrid are coming from an away win in La Liga and will be hoping for the same here. A rotated side with this game in mind, Atletico still managed to beat Valencia 2-0. This competition holds their only hope for silverware after defeat in the Copa del Rey final and being fourth in La Liga.
The last time Atletico faced Arsenal in this competition, they lost heavily, and the Spaniards will want to make a statement here. Their last final in Europe was in 2017/18, and it was via beating Arsenal in the Europa League semis. This season, though, Atletico’s three away defeats in the Champions League have come against Premier League teams.
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Arsenal against Atletico Madrid Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 4 - 4 - 2
Substitutes
T. Setford
K. Arrizabalaga
DefenderP. Hincapie
C. Mosquera
MidfielderM. Zubimendi
M. Odegaard
M. Dowman
C. Norgaard
ForwardG. Jesus
G. Martinelli
K. Havertz
N. Madueke
J. Musso
DefenderC. Lenglet
N. Molina
J. Gimenez
J. Bonar
MidfielderO. Vargas
J. Cardoso
A. Baena
R. Martinez Moya
J. Diaz
ForwardT. Almada
A. Sorloth
Missing players
K. Hein
DefenderJ. Timber
MidfielderM. Merino
N. Gonzalez
P. Barrios
Arsenal & Atletico Madrid Squad Analysis
Both teams rested players to some extent in their weekend matches. At Arsenal there was a first start for Bukayo Saka in a while, and he repaid that with a goal and assist in their 3-0 win against Fulham. The winger would then be rested after 45 minutes and would be back in the starting team, fresher.
Viktor Gyokeres also had a fantastic afternoon, with an assist and two goals. He featured for 64 minutes and will be fired up for Tuesday after managing three goals in his last two games. The biggest talk of the day, though, was Myles Lewis-Skelly’s performance. Deployed in midfield, the youngster had a flawless outing, and it remains to be seen whether Arteta will keep him or revert to his regular, Martin Zubimendi.
With nothing to play for domestically, Atletico made 11 changes on Saturday.
At Atletico, all their fans will be hoping to see Julian Alvarez starting here. The Argentine hobbled off in the first leg after scoring, but reports indicate it wasn’t anything serious. He was among the wholesale changes Diego Simeone made for their weekend win.
In the first leg, he scored his 25th UCL goal, becoming the fastest Argentine to do so, after 41 games, one better than Lionel Messi. The Spaniards had all that started the Arsenal game rested in their 2-0 win over Valencia. Only Antoine Griezmann and Koke were introduced in the second half.
Most goals and assists
Arsenal
Atletico Madrid
G. Martinelli
(6 Goals)
J. Alvarez
(10 Goals)
L. Trossard
(5 Assists)
J. Alvarez
(4 Assists)
, 
A. Lookman
(4 Assists)
Arsenal - Atletico Madrid Key Points
- Arsenal have won five of their last six home matches in the Champions League.
- Arsenal have won 20 of their last 25 home matches in all competitions.
- Arsenal are undefeated in their two home matches against Atletico.
- Atletico have managed just three wins in their latest 11 matches.
- Atletico Madrid lost six of their last 10 away matches.
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Our Arsenal vs Atletico Madrid Prediction
There is one glaring stat that Atleti will be looking to avoid. They have only won twice in the last 13 matches against English teams in UEFA competitions and lost eight. The most recent of them was in North London, where they lost to Spurs and had earlier fallen 4-0 to Arsenal.
The Spaniards face the only unbeaten side remaining in the Champions League, and half of Arsenal’s 10 wins came in home matches. Our prediction for Arsenal v Atletico Madrid is that Arsenal wins.
Arsenal vs Atletico Madrid Alternative Predictions
BTTS
While Arsenal remain a solid side defensively, there are cases where they’ve shown nerves in recent outings. The first leg of this tie was one such moment, and we don’t think it was the last for the side that has conceded in five of the last 10 matches.
However, the Gunners are doing right in attack and should be able to hurt Atletico Madrid. Two of these teams’ four meetings ended with both teams scoring, and we predict the same here too.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Arsenal Atletico Madrid
| Arsenal vs Atletico Madrid | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal wins | 1.58 | 1.64 | +3.8% |
| Draw | 3.95 | 4.34 | +9.9% |
| Atletico Madrid wins | 5.4 | 5.8 | +7.4% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Arsenal is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 3.8% since opening
- The probability of this result was 63.3% and is now 61.0% (-2.3%)
Arsenal vs Atletico Madrid - FAQs
The Arsenal v Atletico Madrid game will be played on Tuesday, 5th May.
The Arsenal v Atletico Madrid game will be televised on Telefonica for Spanish audiences. Those in the UK can follow it via HBO Max and Amazon Prime. Meanwhile, there will be live match updates on Sportytrader for this and the other Champions League semi-final.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
