Netherlands - Eredivisie
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by Sridhar Bhamidi | in Eredivisie Predictions
Only one point separates Ajax and AZ Alkmaar as the two sides restart Eredivisie action after the international break on matchday nine at the Johan Cruijff Arena. This match on Saturday between the third-placed Lancers and the fourth-placed ‘Cheese Farmers’ comes with our prediction of AZ Alkmaar +1 European Handicap.
With 16 points (W4, D4), Ajax started this round three points behind second-placed PSV but only one point ahead of both AZ and Groningen below them. AZ (W4, D3, L1) could swap places with their hosts with a win here.
Ajax drew 3-3 away at Sparta Rotterdam in an exciting game before the international break, extending their unbeaten start to the season. Yet, their failure to win consecutive matches and posting alternate win-draw results is pulling them down in the title race.
Playing at home is a different proposition, as Ajax have won all four home league games this season.
AZ went into the break with a 2-1 home win over Telstar. It helped halt a three-game winless run prior to that, where they drew two and lost one. Overall, the visitors lost only once in this league campaign.
That defeat came on their last league trip, although they won two and drew one of their remaining three away league games this season.
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The Best Betting Odds for Ajax v AZ Alkmaar Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2.1 | 3.9 | 3.2 |
|
|
1.91 | 3.6 | 3.25 |
|
|
2.1 | 3.5 | 3.1 |
|
|
2.05 | 3.75 | 3.1 |
|
|
1.97 | 3.75 | 3.45 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Ajax and AZ Alkmaar?
Our prediction for the Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar match is: AZ Alkmaar +1 European Handicap.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 18/10/2025 between Ajax and AZ Alkmaar in Eredivisie :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 39.84% for a win of Ajax against AZ Alkmaar with odds of 2.1 at Bet365.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar is 23.65% with odds of 3.9 at Bet365.
- Our prediction model gives a 36.51% chance ⭐ for a win of AZ Alkmaar vs Ajax with odds of 3.45 at Unibet.
Ajax - AZ Alkmaar Prediction and Best Odds:
| Ajax AZ Alkmaar Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Ajax wins | 39.84% | 2.1 at Bet365 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.26% | 1.58 at LSbet |
| Both Team To Score | 55.42% | 1.53 at Ladbrokes |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Ajax | 18.58% | 6 at Bet365 |
Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar Form
Ajax and AZ Alkmaar's standings in the Eredivisie
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3
|
18 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 7 |
|
4
|
16 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 5 |
Ajax and AZ Alkmaar Last Matches
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
4 Oct 2025 - Eredivisie
30 Sept 2025 - Champions League
27 Sept 2025 - Eredivisie
21 Sept 2025 - Eredivisie
17 Sept 2025 - Champions League
13 Sept 2025 - Eredivisie
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
27 Sept 2025 - Eredivisie
17 Sept 2025 - Champions League
13 Sept 2025 - Eredivisie
24 Aug 2025 - Eredivisie
10 Aug 2025 - Eredivisie
3 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
0/6 (0%)
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
4 Oct 2025 - Eredivisie
30 Sept 2025 - Champions League
21 Sept 2025 - Eredivisie
30 Aug 2025 - Eredivisie
17 Aug 2025 - Eredivisie
27 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
5 Oct 2025 - Eredivisie
2 Oct 2025 - Conference League
28 Sept 2025 - Eredivisie
24 Sept 2025 - Eredivisie
21 Sept 2025 - Eredivisie
14 Sept 2025 - Eredivisie
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
5 Oct 2025 - Eredivisie
24 Sept 2025 - Eredivisie
21 Sept 2025 - Eredivisie
28 Aug 2025 - Conference League
10 Aug 2025 - Eredivisie
7 Aug 2025 - Conference League
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
2 Oct 2025 - Conference League
28 Sept 2025 - Eredivisie
14 Sept 2025 - Eredivisie
31 Aug 2025 - Eredivisie
21 Aug 2025 - Conference League
17 Aug 2025 - Eredivisie
Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
0 %
33 %
67 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
16 Mar 2025 - Eredivisie
14 Jan 2025 - KNVB beker
8 Dec 2024 - Eredivisie
25 Feb 2024 - Eredivisie
8 Oct 2023 - Eredivisie
6 May 2023 - Eredivisie
Ajax against AZ Alkmaar Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Missing players
O. Wijndal
MidfielderB. Van den Boomen
ForwardK. Dolberg
S. Maikuma
ForwardM. Meerdink
Most goals and assists
Ajax
AZ Alkmaar
W. Weghorst
(5 Goals)
T. Parrott
(4 Goals)
M. Godts
(3 Assists)
S. Mijnans
(4 Assists)
Ajax - AZ Alkmaar Key Points
- Four of Ajax’s last five league games saw them fail to cover -2 European Handicap.
- In seven of eight Eredivisie matches this season, AZ +1 European Handicap was a successful pick.
- AZ won two and drew one of their four away league games this season covering +1 European Handicap.
- AZ +1 European Handicap was successful in the last eight competitive matches between these sides.
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Our Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction
There’s a lot of context for this game, as the teams are separated by just a single point. The loser here could slide down to even eighth depending on results elsewhere, which adds further context. Ajax have had an amazing start to their home campaign, while AZ have been impressive on the road. Even in the head-to-head record, AZ have an upper hand over Ajax recently.
That could reflect in the result of this match, and our Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar prediction is AZ Alkmaar +1 European Handicap.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Ajax AZ Alkmaar
| Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ajax wins | 1.95 | 2.1 | +7.7% |
| Draw | 3.75 | 3.9 | +4.0% |
| AZ Alkmaar wins | 3.5 | 3.2 | -8.6% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Ajax is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 7.7% since opening
- The probability of this result was 51.3% and is now 47.6% (-3.7%)
Use £/€50 free bets for the Ajax vs. AZ Alkmaar game!
Are you planning to bet on the upcoming match between Ajax and AZ Alkmaar? Why not take advantage of the free bets from Bet365? Use our promo code STYVIP1 and open your account. Bet365 offers a welcome package of €/£50 free bet credits if you bet €/£10 as a new player.
Try your luck on this year's Eredivisie! You need to make your qualifying bet of €/£10 within 30 days of opening an account and this can be on any sport with at least one selection priced at 1.2 (1/5) or bigger.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
