2026 NCAA March Madness: which Final Four team will win the championship?
by Joseph King | by Joseph King
2026 NCAA Tournament - upsets hard to come by
For a tournament that has been as synonymous with Cinderella stories and giant-killing upsets as NCAA March Madness, the 2026 edition was noticeably scarce in that department. There were only six true upsets in the entirety of the 2026 NCAA tournament. The most notable of which was ninth-seed Iowa knocking out first-seed and defending champions Florida in the second round by a score of 73-72.
The NCAA classifies an upset as a winning team being five or more seeding places below their opponent.
Last year’s tournament, which saw all four number one seeds advance to the Final Four, had only four true upsets - the lowest number ever recorded. With 2026 producing just six, it points towards there being a growing disparity between the top programs and the mid-majors.
Here are the Final Four teams and the region they advanced from:
- South regional: Illinois (28-8)
- West regional: Arizona (36-2)
- East regional: University of Connecticut (33-5)
- Midwest regional: Michigan (35-3)
Illinois (3) vs UConn (2)
Illinois is back in the Final Four for the first time since 2005, when they would ultimately go on to finish as runners-up to North Carolina in the championship game.
They got to this stage after beating last number two seed Houston, last season’s runners-up, in the Sweet 16 before knocking out ninth-seed Iowa in the Elite Eight. Their star player is Freshman guard Keaton Wagler, who is projected to be a top 10 pick in this year’s NBA Draft and could well be the best remaining player in the tournament.
UConn, meanwhile, has been incredibly successful in recent years, winning back-to-back national championships in 2023 and 2024. They pulled off the moment of the tournament so far when they eliminated top-seeded Duke in the previous round with a last second shot, overturning a 15-point half time deficit.
It’s been a remarkable run for UConn so far who have faced the most difficult road to the Final Four of the remaining teams. They knocked off seventh-seed UCLA in the second round, third-seed Michigan State in the Sweet 16 and number one seed Duke in the Elite Eight.
Michigan (1) vs Arizona (1)
Saturday’s second game has the makings of a classic when Michigan and Arizona face off. Both teams have streamrolled the competition so far; The Wolverines have a 22.5 average winning margin up to this point while Arizona is close behind at 20.5.
The Wolverines and the Wildcats are neck and neck for the bookmakers’ favourites to win the tournament at many of the best online betting sites heading into the Final Four. Whichever of these two teams makes it through will be comfortable favourites in the championship game.
This is also a meeting between two defenses that are putting up historic metrics. Going back more than 25 years, only two teams have put up better KenPom numbers than Arizona and Michigan.
This has many viewing the Arizona vs Michigan matchup as the de facto Championship game.
Arizona will have to devise an answer to Michigan’s Yaxel Lendeborg, who has been dominating this year’s NCAA tournament, averaging 25 points, 8.3 rebounds and 4.3 assists so far, and is the current betting favourite to win the Most Outstanding Player award.
On the other side, Michigan will have to cope with the Wildcats' deadly Freshman trio of Koa Peat, Brayden Burries and Ivan Kharchenkov. Whichever side winds up victorious, this promises to be must-see TV.
Which team will cut down the nets in Indianapolis?
There’s a lot to like about this Arizona team and they have a number of factors working in their favour. A +60.1 observed efficiency margin for their starting five is the highest of all the remaining teams according to analyst Evan Miyakawa’s data.
Arizona also profiles extremely well for tournament basketball. They ranked first in the nation in free throw attempts this season and fifth in points in the paint. In the high-pressure environment of the Final Four, a cold shooting night from outside can sink even the best teams.
However, a squad that can reliably grind out points inside and from the charity stripe makes them a tough team to get the better of over the full 40 minutes. This could ultimately be what lifts the Wildcats to their first national championship since 1997.
