Real Madrid vs Manchester City: Can the Citizens Conquer the Kings of Europe in UCL RO16 Tonight?
by Devesh Jaganath | by Cydias Aujard
Guardiola vs Arbeloa: The latest chapter in “A true Champions League derby”
Real Madrid, Europe’s most decorated club, and their most formidable modern challenger, Manchester City, are set to write another chapter in their gripping UEFA Champions League rivalry tonight under the lights at the iconic Santiago Bernabeu.
These two giants of European football have crossed paths in the UCL knockout stages in each of the last four seasons, and it is the Citizens who have the recent edge, having beaten Los Blancos back on Matchday 6 of the League Phase to confirm our Champions League predictions.
However, the La Liga side came out on top when these two met in the Knockout Playoff round last season and have won 13 of their last 15 UCL last 16 ties. They have also notched up wins in the first leg in 10 of their last 12 matches at this stage of the competition.
However, our tipsters are expecting a much tougher task for tonight’s hosts, according to our Real Madrid vs Manchester City prediction. Los Merengues have lost their last four games against English teams in Europe, while the Sky Blues have only lost three of their last 18 matches against Spanish opposition.
Tactically, all signs suggest that Madrid will lean on their lightning-quick transitions on the counter-attack to get behind the opposing defence, while City will rely on their customary patient build-up play to weave their way through the centre of the park and unleash Erling Haaland up top.
Given these sides’ styles, free-flowing football is expected in this clash. Notably, the last team to keep a clean sheet at the Bernabeu in a UCL knockout match was Barcelona back in 2011. Pep Guardiola led Blaugrana in that match, but since then, Los Galacticos have scored in 39 such matches in a row, averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Guardiola has now faced Real Madrid 28 times in all competitions as a manager across his stints with City, Bayern Munich and Barca, and his record against the Kings of Europe stands at 14 wins, six draws, and eight losses.
Make sure you don't miss any insight by watching our Champions League Round of 16 predictions:
Player Focus: Vinicius to step up, Haaland to test Madrid defence
With the health of talent that both these teams possess, there is no shortage of potential game-changers in this match, but one player that may miss out tonight is Kylian Mbappe, who has been nothing short of incredible in the Champions League this season.
The Frenchman has netted 13 goals in this competition this season and now trails Cristiano Ronaldo’s single-season record by just four. He has also scored seven UCL goals against the Citizens, but he is a massive doubt after missing his side’s last three games with a knee injury.
If Mbappe is unable to feature in this match, Los Blancos will look to Vinicius Junior to make the difference up top. The Brazilian has a reputation for producing big performances in these types of matches and has 26 goal involvements in just 37 Champions League knockout games, including two goals in the last round against Benfica.
However, City have massive weapon in their attacking ranks as well. Erling Haaland has now scored 56 goals in as many appearances in Europe’s elite club competition, and has netted 10 in his last 10 matches against Spanish opposition, including a penalty against Madrid back on MD6 last December.
Haaland has already notched up seven UCL goals this season, and since his first Champions League campaign in 2019-20, only Mbappe (71) and Robert Lewandowski (63) have recorded more goal contributions than the Norwegian talisman (61). Vinicius is fourth on that list with 55.
Aside from the Citizens’ number nine, keep an eye on Antoine Semenyo, who has hit the ground running since arriving in Manchester. The Ghanaian has recorded seven goals in 13 appearances for Guardiola’s side, one more than Omar Marmoush has delivered in twice as many games for the club.
