USA vs Mexico Prediction & Betting Tips - International Friendlies
International - International Friendlies
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by Nella Wagah | in Football Predictions
In their penultimate friendly match of the current international break, the USA will host Mexico at the State Farm Stadium. The two will be facing off for the first time since meeting at the Gold Cup final last year. The USA are on form in this window, and our prediction backs them to win here.
In the Gold Cup final in Texas in 2025, Mexico came from behind to hit the USA 2-1. That marked a second straight win over the USA, who will be determined to improve on that record.
Two wins in their first two friendly matches will supply the needed encouragement. The USA are coming off a 4-2 win over Chile, having earlier beaten Peru 4-1.
One area that will concern Mauricio Pochettino is his team’s struggles to keep clean sheets.
Mexico have lost much of the steam they had during the World Cup and arrive here winless in three matches. After two matches at the helm, it is clear that Rafa Marquez’s reign hasn’t started in the best possible way.
In their most recent outing, El Tri recorded a 1-1 draw with Peru, having had a similar outcome against Colombia earlier. Their winless run started at the 2026 World Cup in their 3-2 defeat to England, after which Marquez took over.
Mexico are unbeaten in nine meetings with CONCACAF opponents.
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USA v Mexico Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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2.38 | 3.25 | 2.7 |
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2.49 | 3.45 | 3.04 |
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2.42 | 3.34 | 2.95 |
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2.42 | 3.34 | 2.95 |
|
|
2.42 | 3.34 | 2.95 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between USA and Mexico?
Our prediction for the USA vs Mexico match is: draw & BTTS.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 03/10/2026 between USA and Mexico in International Friendlies :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 40.16% for a win of USA against Mexico with odds of 2.49 at 1xbet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between USA vs Mexico is 10.91% with odds of 3.45 at 1xbet.
- Our prediction model gives a 48.92% chance ⭐ for a win of Mexico vs USA with odds of 3.04 at 1xbet.
USA vs Mexico Form
USA and Mexico Last Matches
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
29 Sept 2026 - International Friendlies
26 Sept 2026 - International Friendlies
6 Jul 2026 - World Cup
1 Jul 2026 - World Cup
25 Jun 2026 - World Cup
19 Jun 2026 - World Cup
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
29 Sept 2026 - International Friendlies
26 Sept 2026 - International Friendlies
6 Jul 2026 - World Cup
1 Jul 2026 - World Cup
19 Jun 2026 - World Cup
12 Jun 2026 - World Cup
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
25 Jun 2026 - World Cup
19 Jun 2025 - CONCACAF Gold Cup
23 Mar 2025 - CONCACAF Nations League
14 Nov 2024 - CONCACAF Nations League
15 Oct 2024 - International Friendlies
27 Jun 2024 - Copa America
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
29 Sept 2026 - International Friendlies
26 Sept 2026 - International Friendlies
5 Jul 2026 - World Cup
30 Jun 2026 - World Cup
24 Jun 2026 - World Cup
18 Jun 2026 - World Cup
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
29 Sept 2026 - International Friendlies
26 Sept 2026 - International Friendlies
5 Jul 2026 - World Cup
30 Jun 2026 - World Cup
18 Jun 2026 - World Cup
11 Jun 2026 - World Cup
6/6 (100%)
0/6 (0%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
24 Jun 2026 - World Cup
25 Jan 2026 - International Friendlies
22 Jan 2026 - International Friendlies
6 Jul 2025 - CONCACAF Gold Cup
18 Jun 2025 - CONCACAF Gold Cup
20 Mar 2025 - CONCACAF Nations League
USA vs Mexico Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
50 %
17 %
33 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
6 Jul 2025 - CONCACAF Gold Cup
15 Oct 2024 - International Friendlies
24 Mar 2024 - CONCACAF Nations League
15 Jun 2023 - CONCACAF Nations League
24 Mar 2022 - World Cup
12 Nov 2021 - World Cup
Players list
C. Brady
DefenderF. Westfield
N. Pierre
M. Robinson
A. Robinson
S. Dest
MidfielderB. Raines
S. Berhalter
G. Reyna
A. Mehmeti
ForwardJ. Hall
O. Garcia
DefenderV. Guzman
M. Chavez
E. del Villar
MidfielderA. Fidalgo
O. Pineda
J. Marquez
D. Garcia
O. Vargas
ForwardG. Berterame
I. Violante
Substitutes
B. Schwake
M. Freese
DefenderG. Campbell
C. Richards
A. Trusty
A. Freeman
P. Miller
MidfielderT. Adams
Y. Musah
M. Tillman
Z. Gozo
C. Sullivan
ForwardJ. Ellis
D. Downs
M. Albert
A. Padilla
DefenderJ. Vasquez
J. Sanchez
J. Gallardo
D. Campillo Del Campo
MidfielderS. Sandoval Gonzalez
E. Lira
L. Romo
L. Chavez
G. Mora
H. Camberos
ForwardS. Gimenez
R. Alvarado
A. Gonzalez
H. Lozano
USA - Mexico Key Points
- Mexico are unbeaten in their last seven friendly matches, drawing four.
- In seven of the USA’s last 10 matches, both teams scored.
- The USA have only tasted defeat once in the last four games.
- Mexico are winless in their last three matches.
- Both teams scored in Mexico’s last three games.
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Our USA vs Mexico Prediction
The latest six matches between these two nations are spread out evenly: two wins, two draws, and two defeats for each. While Mexico have done well in the latest meetings with the USA, they aren’t at their strongest just yet.
They are a team in transition with new manager Rafa Marquez settling in, and they’ve been hard to beat even as they aren’t winning much. The USA will be keen on ending their recent winless run in this fixture, but a leaking defence is sure to frustrate the hosts. Our prediction for USA v Mexico is for a draw & BTTS.
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
