Troyes vs Marseille Prediction & Betting Tips - Ligue 1

France - Ligue 1

Troyes
11/10/2026 14:45
Marseille

Prediction :

 

Marseille wins + over 2.5 goals

 
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 by Nella Wagah | in Ligue 1 Predictions

French Ligue 1 strugglers Troyes and Marseille meet this weekend with the winner almost certain of moving out of the relegation zone. Troyes are currently in 16th after five rounds of play and sit just a point above Marseille. With 11 wins out of 16 meetings with Troyes, our prediction favors Marseille.

Troyes are having a difficult return to the topflight. Back in Ligue 1 after a three-year absence, ESTAC have won just once, while suffering three losses. The defeats came in back-to-back games right before the recent international break.

Stephane Dumont's men, who haven't scored in their last two outings, were beaten 2-0 at home to Angers last time out.

Marseille haven't lost any of the last nine meetings with Troyes. They have won eight times in this period and will hope this form extends, as a foundation for a season turnaround.

Les Olympiens are enduring a disastrous start to the season, and arrive for the weekend with the second worst record. Bruno Genesio's men haven't won since a commanding 4-0 win over Strasbourg on matchday one.

They have lost the subsequent four league matches since that victory. Marseille, who are also juggling a European calendar, lost 2-1 at home in the derby with PSG last time out.

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Troyes v Marseille Best Betting Odds

Bookmaker 1 X 2 Bonus up to
Stake
3.65 3.85 1.94
1xbet
3.8 4.04 1.98
Melbet
3.66 3.88 1.91
Betwinner
3.66 3.88 1.91
22bet
3.66 3.88 1.91
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What is the prediction for the football match between Troyes and Marseille?

Our prediction for the Troyes vs Marseille match is: Marseille wins + over 2.5 goals.

Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 11/10/2026 between Troyes and Marseille in Ligue 1 :

  • The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 40.02% for a win of Troyes against Marseille with odds of 3.8 at 1xbet.
  • The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Troyes vs Marseille is 16.98% with odds of 4.04 at 1xbet.
  • Our prediction model gives a 43.01% chance ⭐ for a win of Marseille vs Troyes with odds of 1.98 at 1xbet.

Troyes vs Marseille Form

Troyes and Marseille's standings in the Ligue 1

Teams Pts P W D L GD
16 Troyes
4 5 1 1 3 -7
17 Marseille
3 5 1 0 4 -1

Troyes and Marseille Last Matches

Troyes
Troyes Last matches
D D W L L L
Wins

1/6 (17%)

Draw

2/6 (33%)

Losses

3/6 (50%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

2.83 Total goals
50% BTTS
0.83 Goals scored
2 Goals conceded
33% Over 2.5
67% Under 2.5

19 Sept 2026 - Ligue 1

Angers
2 :  0
Troyes

13 Sept 2026 - Ligue 1

Lille
2 :  0
Troyes

6 Sept 2026 - Ligue 1

Troyes
2 :  6
Strasbourg

29 Aug 2026 - Ligue 1

Lorient
1 :  2
Troyes

22 Aug 2026 - Ligue 1

Troyes
0 :  0
Paris FC

14 Aug 2026 - Clubs Friendlies

Troyes
1 :  1
Panaitolikos Agrinio
W W W D D L
Wins

3/6 (50%)

Draw

2/6 (33%)

Losses

1/6 (17%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

3.5 Total goals
50% BTTS
2 Goals scored
1.5 Goals conceded
50% Over 2.5
50% Under 2.5

6 Sept 2026 - Ligue 1

Troyes
2 :  6
Strasbourg

22 Aug 2026 - Ligue 1

Troyes
0 :  0
Paris FC

14 Aug 2026 - Clubs Friendlies

Troyes
1 :  1
Panaitolikos Agrinio

31 Jul 2026 - Clubs Friendlies

Troyes
5 :  2
FC Goal

25 Jul 2026 - Clubs Friendlies

Troyes
3 :  0
Grenoble Foot

18 Jul 2026 - Clubs Friendlies

Troyes
1 :  0
Red Star
L W D W L L
Wins

2/6 (33%)

Draw

1/6 (17%)

Losses

3/6 (50%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

2.33 Total goals
50% BTTS
1 Goals scored
1.33 Goals conceded
33% Over 2.5
67% Under 2.5

19 Sept 2026 - Ligue 1

Angers
2 :  0
Troyes

13 Sept 2026 - Ligue 1

Lille
2 :  0
Troyes

29 Aug 2026 - Ligue 1

Lorient
1 :  2
Troyes

8 Aug 2026 - Clubs Friendlies

Auxerre
1 :  1
Troyes

11 Jul 2026 - Clubs Friendlies

Nancy
1 :  3
Troyes

9 May 2026 - Ligue 2

Grenoble Foot
1 :  0
Troyes
Marseille
Marseille Last matches
W L L L L L
Wins

1/6 (17%)

Draw

0/6 (0%)

Losses

5/6 (83%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

3.33 Total goals
50% BTTS
1.33 Goals scored
2 Goals conceded
67% Over 2.5
33% Under 2.5

20 Sept 2026 - Ligue 1

Marseille
1 :  2
PSG

17 Sept 2026 - Europa League

Besiktas Istanbul
4 :  1
Marseille

11 Sept 2026 - Ligue 1

Rennes
1 :  0
Marseille

6 Sept 2026 - Ligue 1

Marseille
2 :  3
Paris FC

30 Aug 2026 - Ligue 1

Monaco
2 :  0
Marseille

21 Aug 2026 - Ligue 1

Marseille
4 :  0
Strasbourg
W W L W L L
Wins

3/6 (50%)

Draw

0/6 (0%)

Losses

3/6 (50%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

3.67 Total goals
83% BTTS
2.17 Goals scored
1.5 Goals conceded
100% Over 2.5
0% Under 2.5

20 Sept 2026 - Ligue 1

Marseille
1 :  2
PSG

6 Sept 2026 - Ligue 1

Marseille
2 :  3
Paris FC

21 Aug 2026 - Ligue 1

Marseille
4 :  0
Strasbourg

14 Aug 2026 - Clubs Friendlies

Marseille
1 :  2
Atletico Madrid

9 Aug 2026 - Clubs Friendlies

Marseille
3 :  1
Athletic Bilbao

30 Jul 2026 - Clubs Friendlies

Marseille
2 :  1
Nimes
W W W L L L
Wins

3/6 (50%)

Draw

0/6 (0%)

Losses

3/6 (50%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

2.5 Total goals
17% BTTS
1.33 Goals scored
1.17 Goals conceded
50% Over 2.5
50% Under 2.5

17 Sept 2026 - Europa League

Besiktas Istanbul
4 :  1
Marseille

11 Sept 2026 - Ligue 1

Rennes
1 :  0
Marseille

30 Aug 2026 - Ligue 1

Monaco
2 :  0
Marseille

5 Aug 2026 - Clubs Friendlies

Al Shahania
0 :  3
Marseille

17 Jul 2026 - Clubs Friendlies

Yamoussoukro FC
0 :  3
Marseille

10 May 2026 - Ligue 1

Le Havre
0 :  1
Marseille

Troyes vs Marseille Stats: Head to Head (H2H)

Troyes

0 %

Draw

17 %

Marseille

83 %

Average stats (last H2H results)

3
Total goals
66.67%
BTTS
0.83
Goals scored
2.17
Goals conceded
50%
Over 2.5
50%
Under 2.5

16 Apr 2023 - Ligue 1

Marseille
3 :  1
Troyes

11 Jan 2023 - Ligue 1

Troyes
0 :  2
Marseille

27 Feb 2022 - Ligue 1

Troyes
1 :  1
Marseille

28 Nov 2021 - Ligue 1

Marseille
1 :  0
Troyes

15 Apr 2018 - Ligue 1

Troyes
2 :  3
Marseille

20 Dec 2017 - Ligue 1

Marseille
3 :  1
Troyes
Troyes vs Marseille Prediction

Troyes vs Marseille last Lineups

Troyes

Formation : 4 - 3 - 3

33
P. Beach
31
N. Donkor
6
A. Monfray
4
M. Diaz
3
A. Ouzenadji
11
I. Gomis
8
M. Diop
29
K. Dermane
17
A. Mille
9
J. Le Douaron
23
T. Nkada
11
N. Maupay
14
I. Paixao
9
A. Gouiri
77
A. Harit
23
P. Hojbjerg
8
H. Abdelli
33
Emerson
21
N. Aguerd
4
C. Egan-Riley
22
T. Weah
1
J. De Lange

Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1

Marseille

Substitutes

Troyes
Troyes
Goalkeeper

H. Konate

Defender

E. Carneiro

L. Simakha

L. Maronnier

Midfielder

I. Soukouna

K. Diawara

H. Picard

Forward

R. Ripart

Y. Kone

Marseille
Marseille
Goalkeeper

T. Vermot

Defender

U. Garcia

D. Cornelius

A. Koum

K. Bezahaf

Midfielder

T. Mmadi

A. Gomes

Forward

F. Moumbagna

K. Abdallah

Missing players

Troyes
Troyes
Defender

I. Boura

Y. Titi

Marseille
Marseille
Defender

D. Cornelius

Midfielder

P. Hojbjerg

Forward

T. Weah

Most goals and assists

CD Huachipato Troyes
CD Huachipato Marseille
Top Goalscorer
France R. Ripart (1 Goals) , 
France L. Maronnier (1 Goals) , 
France J. Le Douaron (1 Goals) , 
France A. Mille (1 Goals)
Top Goalscorer
Algeria A. Gouiri (4 Goals)
Best assists
France A. Mille (1 Assists) , 
France K. Diawara (1 Assists) , 
France A. Ouzenadji (1 Assists)
Best assists
England A. Gomes (1 Assists) , 
Algeria A. Gouiri (1 Assists) , 
Morocco A. Harit (1 Assists)

Troyes and Marseille Stats in Ligue 1

Troyes
Troyes
Marseille
Marseille
20%
Wins
20%
60%
Losses
80%
20%
Draws
0%
3
Average goals per match
3
0.8
Goals scored per match
1.4
2.2
Goals conceded per match
1.6
60%
Under 2.5 goals
40%
40%
Over 2.5 goals
60%
20%
No goals conceded
20%
40%
BTTS
40%

Troyes - Marseille Key Points

  1. Marseille haven't lost any of the last nine meetings with Troyes.
  2. Three of Troyes' five league matches ended in defeat.
  3. Troyes have conceded 11 goals in their last four league games.
  4. Marseille’s five league matches have produced 15 goals.
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Our Troyes vs Marseille Prediction

Marseille are having a disappointing start to the season and at the moment, sit second from bottom in the league. Nonetheless, we have them as favourites here, as their opponents aren't faring any better and sit in the bottom three as well.

Though they have struggled, Marseille's setbacks haven't been down to quality, and they have had some strong performances even in defeat. A case in point is the 2-1 loss to PSG. It may pass as a boost to Marseille, but history hasn’t favored Troyes in this encounter, their last win over Marseille dating more than a decade ago. Our prediction for Troyes v Marseille is that Marseille wins + over 2.5 goals.

Prediction :

 

Marseille wins + over 2.5 goals

 
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.