Tommy Paul vs Arthur Fils Prediction & Betting Tips - ATP Miami
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by Steve Ashfield | in ATP Miami Predictions
Arthur Fils is continuing his excellent return to the ATP Tour. The 28th seed takes on 22nd seeded Tommy Paul in the quarter-finals of the outdoor hard court Miami Open. Read our match prediction below.
This is his fourth quarter-final in five tournaments for Fils in 2026 with one final in Doha. Fils also reached the last eight here in 2025.
The last 16 saw the 21-year-old beat Valentin Vacherot in three sets. That was the first set he's dropped this week after two straight sets victories over Darwin Blanch and Stefanos Tsitsipas, losing only six games.
Fils is up to 31st in the live rankings but 11th in the ATP Race. There's been one previous meeting between Fils and Paul. That was played in 2023 in Shanghai with Paul winning in three sets.
Tommy Paul is the only American left in the top half of the draw in this Sunshine Swing Masters tournament. He's won 13 of his 18 outdoor hard court matches played in 2026 with one final reached in Delray Beach.
This is the first time he has made it to the last eight in Miami. He dropped sets in both of his first two matches but then defeated Tomas Martin Etcheverry for the loss of four games and is 21st in the live rankings.
We tip Fils to win this.
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Tommy Paul v Arthur Fils Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|
|
2.12 | 1.73 |
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|
2.12 | 1.73 |
|
|
2.1 | 1.73 |
|
|
2.06 | 1.7 |
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|
2.06 | 1.7 |
|
Who will win the Tommy Paul vs Arthur Fils Tennis game?
Our prediction for the Tommy Paul vs Arthur Fils match is: Arthur Fils wins.
The best winner predictions and betting odds for the Tommy Paul vs Arthur Fils game on 25/03/2026 of the current ATP Miami season:
- Tommy Paul has a 56.09% chance to win against Arthur Fils according to Melbet ⭐ with the odds of 2.12.
- Arthur Fils has a 43.91% probability of winning facing Tommy Paul ⭐ with odds of 1.73 at Melbet.
Tommy Paul vs Arthur Fils Best Prediction and Odds
Based on the bookmaker's betting lines in this match, Tommy Paul has a 56.09 % chance to win.
| Prediction | Chance to win |
|---|---|
| Tommy Paul | 56.09 % |
| Arthur Fils | 43.91 % |
Tommy Paul vs Arthur Fils Form
Tommy Paul and Arthur Fils Last Matches
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
24 Mar 2026 - ATP Miami
22 Mar 2026 - ATP Miami
20 Mar 2026 - ATP Miami
8 Mar 2026 - ATP Indian Wells
6 Mar 2026 - ATP Indian Wells
22 Feb 2026 - ATP Delray Beach Open
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
24 Mar 2026 - ATP Miami
22 Mar 2026 - ATP Miami
20 Mar 2026 - ATP Miami
12 Mar 2026 - ATP Indian Wells
10 Mar 2026 - ATP Indian Wells
8 Mar 2026 - ATP Indian Wells
Tommy Paul vs Arthur Fils Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
100 %
0 %
9 Oct 2023 - ATP Shanghai Masters
Tommy Paul - Arthur Fils Key Points
- Fils has won 10 of his 12 outdoor hard court matches this year.
- Only Carlos Alcaraz and Alexander Zverev have beaten Fils on this surface in 2026.
- Fils has reached at least the quarter-finals in five of his last six outdoor hard court tournaments.
- Paul has twice had to go to a deciding set in this tournament.
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Our Tommy Paul vs Arthur Fils Prediction
There are few more consistent players on outdoor hard courts than Arthur Fils. Only once in his last six tournaments has he failed to at least make it to the quarter-finals. He's been in top form since returning from injury in February after being off-court since August 2025.
Tommy Paul is in his first Miami Open quarter-final. He's reached one final on this surface this year but twice had to go to three sets in this tournament. Our Tommy Paul v Arthur Fils prediction is Arthur Fils wins.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
