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by Geoffrey Ejiga | in UFC Predictions
If you're looking for a heavyweight clash that will absolutely deliver on action at UFC Fight Night, Serghei Spivac versus Shamil Gaziev is the one to tune into. Does the rising, powerful finisher continue his momentum, or does the veteran Polar Bear use his world-class grappling to turn back the clock and secure a crucial win? See our best pick in this Serghei Spivac vs Shamil Gaziev match prediction.
We’re firmly in the corner of Serghei Spivac here, despite the fact that he's coming off back-to-back losses, the most recent being a unanimous decision to Waldo Cortes-Acosta in June 2025. That loss was disappointing, but it came against a fighter who successfully stuffed his takedowns, which is a rare feat against Spivac.
Meanwhile, Shamil Gaziev is on a two-fight win streak, last stopping Thomas Petersen by TKO in the first round back in February 2025. Gaziev is a pure power striker, with a high knockout rate, but he's stepping into the deep end against a fighter who is historically the best wrestler in the heavyweight division.
Notably, Spivac averages a massive 4.21 takedowns every 15 minutes, with the highest takedown accuracy in UFC Heavyweight history at a staggering 62%. Gaziev’s takedown defense, which sits around 83%, is good, but it has not been tested by anyone with Spivac’s relentless volume and top-tier control.
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Serghei Spivac - Shamil Gaziev Key Points
- Serghei Spivac averages 4.21 takedowns landed every 15 minutes.
- Spivac holds the highest takedown accuracy in UFC Heavyweight history at 62%.
- Spivac has recorded three submission wins in his UFC career.
- Spivac has beaten former title contenders like Derrick Lewis by submission, proving he can finish dangerous strikers on the ground.
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Our Serghei Spivac vs Shamil Gaziev Prediction
It only seems this fight is set up perfectly for Serghei Spivac’s fighting style. Looking at his opponent’s matchups, Gaziev is a powerful striker who has yet to face a truly elite, high-volume wrestler like Spivac. The Polar Bear needs to shake off those recent losses, and there’s no better way to do it than by dominating a rising contender.
We expect him to shut down Gaziev’s striking and deliver a vintage grappling performance that will rely heavily on control and ground-and-pound, likely leading to a late finish or a dominant decision. Hence, our Serghei Spivac vs Shamil Gaziev match prediction is Serghei Spivac to win.
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
