Roma vs Real Madrid Prediction & Betting Tips - Champions League
Europe - Champions League
New customers only | Commercial content | 18+ age limit | T&Cs apply
by Sridhar Bhamidi | in Champions League Predictions
For the second time in a row, Jose Mourinho will take his Real Madrid side to face an Italian side he previously managed, this time Roma on matchday two of the league phase in the UEFA Champions League (UCL). This match on Wednesday at Stadio Olimpico between the 17th-placed ‘Giallorossi’ and the 13th-placed ‘Los Blancos’ could be a tight encounter, but who has the edge in this battle?
Roma could only draw on matchday one, away against Fenerbahce, dropping points after scoring first. That was their third draw in four fixtures in Europe, perhaps an indicator of their inability to close out games.
Will that come back to haunt them against Madrid? The visitors had a hard-fought 2-1 win over Inter Milan on matchday one, in a game that had 37 shots in total and 14 shots on target. This game is once again likely to be an entertaining affair, but can they get it past Roma on this trip? Read more for our analysis, team news, and match predictions.
Limited Offer. Currently at Stake
Roma v Real Madrid Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.7 | 4 | 1.84 |
|
|
3.89 | 4.11 | 1.94 |
|
|
3.74 | 3.96 | 1.88 |
|
|
3.74 | 3.96 | 1.88 |
|
|
3.74 | 3.96 | 1.88 |
|
Pre-register for our Member Area: win €500!
What is the prediction for the football match between Roma and Real Madrid?
Our prediction for the Roma vs Real Madrid match is: under 3.5 goals.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 14/10/2026 between Roma and Real Madrid in Champions League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 36.83% for a win of Roma against Real Madrid with odds of 3.89 at 1xbet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Roma vs Real Madrid is 18.12% with odds of 4.11 at 1xbet.
- Our prediction model gives a 45.05% chance ⭐ for a win of Real Madrid vs Roma with odds of 1.94 at 1xbet.
Roma vs Real Madrid Form
Roma and Real Madrid's standings in the Champions League
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
13
|
3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 |
|
17
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Roma and Real Madrid Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
11 Oct 2026 - Serie A
19 Sept 2026 - Serie A
14 Sept 2026 - Serie A
10 Sept 2026 - Champions League
5 Sept 2026 - Serie A
31 Aug 2026 - Serie A
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
19 Sept 2026 - Serie A
5 Sept 2026 - Serie A
24 Aug 2026 - Serie A
17 May 2026 - Serie A
4 May 2026 - Serie A
18 Apr 2026 - Serie A
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
11 Oct 2026 - Serie A
14 Sept 2026 - Serie A
10 Sept 2026 - Champions League
31 Aug 2026 - Serie A
15 Aug 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
8 Aug 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
10 Oct 2026 - LaLiga
20 Sept 2026 - LaLiga
15 Sept 2026 - LaLiga
12 Sept 2026 - LaLiga
8 Sept 2026 - Champions League
4 Sept 2026 - LaLiga
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
10 Oct 2026 - LaLiga
12 Sept 2026 - LaLiga
8 Sept 2026 - Champions League
30 Aug 2026 - LaLiga
26 Aug 2026 - LaLiga
1 Aug 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
20 Sept 2026 - LaLiga
15 Sept 2026 - LaLiga
4 Sept 2026 - LaLiga
22 Aug 2026 - LaLiga
16 Aug 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
12 Aug 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
Roma vs Real Madrid Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
0 %
0 %
100 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
27 Nov 2018 - Champions League
19 Sept 2018 - Champions League
7 Aug 2018 - International Champions Cup
Roma - Real Madrid: Form Analysis
Roma drew 0-0 away at Como last Sunday in Serie A in a game that they played with ten men for more than 30 minutes. While that extended their unbeaten start to their competitive action this season (W4, D3), concerns linger over their recent results.
The Giallorossi drew three of their last four matches, including on matchday one when they dropped the lead in a 1-1 away draw at Fenerbahce. That made it a winless run in four European games (D3, L1) ahead of welcoming their former manager, who led them to European glory in the 2021-22 season.
Roma lost three of their last five European home matches.
Madrid are coming off a 1-0 home win against Villarreal, after a 73rd-minute red card for Vinicius saw them play out the game nervously. That made it four wins in five games (L1), including a 2-1 home win over Inter Milan on matchday one of this competition.
‘Los Blancos’ have a tough task to follow up on the road, as they lost two of their last three competitive trips (W1), while a run of four defeats in their last eight away UCL matches (W4) puts a question mark over their chances.
Limited Offer. Currently at Stake
Roma vs Real Madrid last Lineups
Formation : 3 - 4 - 2 - 1
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Substitutes
G. De Marzi
D. Vasquez
DefenderL. Balerdi
D. Ghilardi
E. Lulli
D. Rensch
MidfielderR. Mora
N. Pisilli
ForwardS. Castro
M. Soule
A. Lunin
S. Mestre
DefenderM. Cucurella
D. Dumfries
MidfielderT. Pitarch Pinar
B. Silva
E. Camavinga
ForwardB. Diaz
C. Espi
Endrick
Vinicius Junior
Missing players
M. Svilar
MidfielderB. Cristante
M. Bah
F. Mendy
R. Asencio
ForwardRodrygo
Roma & Real Madrid Squad Analysis
First-choice goalkeeper Mile Svilar is out for Roma, while doubts remain over captain Bryan Cristante’s participation. Konstantinos Koulierakis is also out for the home team.
Roma are likely to continue in their favoured 3-4-3 system with Donyell Malen available despite his red card against Como, which applies only to Serie A. His tally of six goals and one assist makes him Roma’s best option with that assist coming in the Champions League.
Kylian Mbappe has eight goals and two assists for Madrid this season.
One of those goals came in Madrid’s matchday one victory. The forward has four goals and two assists in his last five club games. Mourinho could once again look to Jude Bellingham for control and impact, with the English midfielder scoring three and assisting two goals in all competitions this season.
The visitors are likely to continue in their 4-2-3-1 formation, with Eder Militao ruled out of this trip. Rodrygo is not expected until early 2027, while Raul Asencio and Ferland Mendy remain other long-term absences.
Most goals and assists
Roma
Real Madrid
B. Cristante
(1 Goals)
K. Mbappe
(1 Goals)
, 
F. Valverde
(1 Goals)
D. Malen
(1 Assists)
B. Diaz
(1 Assists)
Roma and Real Madrid Stats in Champions League
Roma - Real Madrid Key Points
- Four of Roma’s last five competitive matches produced under 3.5 goals.
- Five of Roma’s last eight home games have seen fewer than four goals.
- Ten of Roma’s last 12 home matches in the UCL have seen at most three goals.
- Six of Madrid’s last seven UCL matches have seen fewer than four goals.
- Four of Madrid’s last six competitive games have seen at most three goals.
Limited Offer. Currently at Stake
Our Roma vs Real Madrid Prediction
Roma would have wanted to be in better form – three draws from their last four games – as they get ready to welcome their former manager Jose Mourinho. Contrastingly, the visiting Spaniards have four wins from their last five fixtures, including on matchday one. History also favours the visitors, but is that enough to tilt the scales?
The last seven UCL matches between these sides saw fewer than four goals, and that’s likely to continue in this fixture. Our Roma vs Real Madrid prediction is under 3.5 goals.
Roma vs Real Madrid Alternative Predictions
Roma wins
Madrid have lost four of their last eight away UCL games, while Roma have won eight of their last nine home matches in this competition. This could be a chance for the Italians to spring a surprise.
Kylian Mbappe Over 2.5 Shots on Target
Kylian Mbappe had at least three shots on target in six of his last nine games for Madrid. That included four on target in Madrid’s matchday one against Inter Milan. The French forward regularly picks up the tab in the Champions League, having hit at least four shots on target in four of seven league phase games in the last campaign. He’s likely to once again get going on the front foot.
Use £/€50 free bets for the Roma vs. Real Madrid game!
Are you planning to bet on the upcoming match between Roma and Real Madrid? Why not take advantage of the free bets from Bet365? Use our promo code STYVIP1 and open your account. Bet365 offers a welcome package of €/£50 free bet credits if you bet €/£10 as a new player.
Try your luck on this year's Champions League! You need to make your qualifying bet of €/£10 within 30 days of opening an account and this can be on any sport with at least one selection priced at 1.2 (1/5) or bigger.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
