Real Madrid vs Villarreal Prediction & Betting Tips - LaLiga
Spain - LaLiga
New customers only | Commercial content | 18+ age limit | T&Cs apply
by Daniel Ngulu | in LaLiga Predictions
The hype around Jose Mourinho’s return to Real Madrid is being replaced with silent murmurs after Real Madrid lost twice in their opening five La Liga matches. There are also concerns that both losses were against sides in the top four, where Real Madrid should be establishing a sense of dominance. Worse still, one of the defeats was served by their bitterest of rivals; Atletico Madrid.
There is an overriding wish at the Bernabeu as Los Blancos head into this match, that they can’t afford another defeat just yet. It is well for them, though, that they have a perfect record at the Bernabeu this season in the league. History also favors them, with Real having last lost two of seven opening league games back in 2014.
Villarreal have been building silently, and some quarters will back a prediction for an away win here. We are not keen on that, despite the fact that they are coming off two straight wins. With their struggles in defence, this will be a tough outing.
Limited Offer. Currently at Stake
Real Madrid v Villarreal Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.37 | 5.8 | 6.4 |
|
|
1.4 | 5.85 | 7.8 |
|
|
1.35 | 5.6 | 7.5 |
|
|
1.35 | 5.6 | 7.5 |
|
|
1.35 | 5.6 | 7.4 |
|
Pre-register for our Member Area: win €500!
What is the prediction for the football match between Real Madrid and Villarreal?
Our prediction for the Real Madrid vs Villarreal match is: Real Madrid wins.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 10/10/2026 between Real Madrid and Villarreal in LaLiga :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 62.48% for a win of Real Madrid against Villarreal with odds of 1.4 at 1xbet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Real Madrid vs Villarreal is 20.27% with odds of 6 at Bet365.
- Our prediction model gives a 17.25% chance ⭐ for a win of Villarreal vs Real Madrid with odds of 7.8 at 1xbet.
Real Madrid vs Villarreal Form
Real Madrid and Villarreal's standings in the LaLiga
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4
|
15 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | +10 |
|
9
|
8 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | +1 |
Real Madrid and Villarreal Last Matches
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
20 Sept 2026 - LaLiga
15 Sept 2026 - LaLiga
12 Sept 2026 - LaLiga
8 Sept 2026 - Champions League
4 Sept 2026 - LaLiga
30 Aug 2026 - LaLiga
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
12 Sept 2026 - LaLiga
8 Sept 2026 - Champions League
30 Aug 2026 - LaLiga
26 Aug 2026 - LaLiga
1 Aug 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
23 May 2026 - LaLiga
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
20 Sept 2026 - LaLiga
15 Sept 2026 - LaLiga
4 Sept 2026 - LaLiga
22 Aug 2026 - LaLiga
16 Aug 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
12 Aug 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
20 Sept 2026 - LaLiga
17 Sept 2026 - LaLiga
14 Sept 2026 - LaLiga
8 Sept 2026 - Champions League
5 Sept 2026 - LaLiga
28 Aug 2026 - LaLiga
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
20 Sept 2026 - LaLiga
14 Sept 2026 - LaLiga
5 Sept 2026 - LaLiga
5 Aug 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
24 May 2026 - LaLiga
13 May 2026 - LaLiga
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
17 Sept 2026 - LaLiga
8 Sept 2026 - Champions League
28 Aug 2026 - LaLiga
23 Aug 2026 - LaLiga
16 Aug 2026 - LaLiga
8 Aug 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
Real Madrid vs Villarreal Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
83 %
17 %
0 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
24 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
4 Oct 2025 - LaLiga
15 Mar 2025 - LaLiga
5 Oct 2024 - LaLiga
19 May 2024 - LaLiga
17 Dec 2023 - LaLiga
Real Madrid - Villarreal: Form Analysis
Real Madrid have shown a serious deficiency in what was expected to be a revival to challenge a dominant Barcelona. They find themselves fourth in the standings as action returns after the international break. A 2-1 loss to Atletico Madrid right before the break wasn’t any ordinary defeat.
The ramifications were far-reaching, as they fell to a direct rival and lost second spot while Barcelona opened up a six-point gap on them. With El Clasico set for later this month, Real Madrid can’t afford any more slip-ups. Here, home form will offer much-needed comfort, as they have won each of the last seven matches they hosted in all competitions.
Real Madrid defeated Villarreal in each of their last three home games.
Villarreal haven’t had it all smooth this season, as they went winless in their opening six matches. In that run they lost four straight matches before recovering towards the international break. The Yellow Submarines posted back-to-back identical 3-1 wins against Malaga and Levante and will be looking to extend this run here.
Their away form, however, doesn’t tally with the ambitions for this encounter. Villarreal have only managed one win in their last five matches across all competitions. In their visits to Real Madrid, Villarreal lost six times in the last 10 matches.
Limited Offer. Currently at Stake
Real Madrid vs Villarreal last Lineups
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 4 - 4 - 2
Substitutes
A. Lunin
DefenderT. Alexander-Arnold
A. Carreras
R. Asencio
A. Rudiger
MidfielderE. Camavinga
T. Pitarch Pinar
B. Silva
ForwardEndrick
C. Espi
Y. Diomande
B. Diaz
L. Junior
R. Gomez
DefenderJ. Foyth
L. Costa
C. Romero
S. Mourino
MidfielderA. Diatta
C. Macia
ForwardN. Pepe
G. Mikautadze
T. Oluwaseyi
G. Moreno
Missing players
F. Mendy
E. Militao
I. Konate
R. Asencio
D. Huijsen
MidfielderF. Valverde
ForwardK. Mbappe
Rodrygo
S. Comesana
Real Madrid & Villarreal Squad Analysis
After a stellar showing in the international break, Jude Bellingham will be back at the Bernabeu hoping to carry similar form. The England international was the Three Lions’ fulcrum, scoring once and laying on four assists.
He has also had five goal contributions at Real Madrid in the league this season and will hope to step up here too. The hosts are injury-hit but will once again rely on star forward Kylian Mbappe, who will be looking to add to his 10 goal involvements. Defensively, Raul Asensio and Ferland Mendy remain out as long-term injuries while Dean Huijsen is suspended.
Real Madrid skipper Federico Valverde will be subjected to late checks on his ankle injury.
Villarreal will be banking a lot of their hopes in attack on Alberto Moleiro. The 23-year-old had back-to-back man-of-the-match performances in the last two games. After scoring in the 3-1 win over Malaga, he was on hand again with a goal and two assists as Villarreal beat Levante by the same margin.
The visitors will, however, be without Canadian midfielder Tajon Buchanan, who picked a hamstring injury during the international week. In his absence, Nicolas Pepe would be the natural replacement, but that is all down to the manager’s planning.
Most goals and assists
Real Madrid
Villarreal
K. Mbappe
(7 Goals)
P. Gueye
(3 Goals)
Vinicius Junior
(3 Assists)
A. Moleiro
(3 Assists)
Real Madrid and Villarreal Stats in LaLiga
Real Madrid - Villarreal Key Points
- Real Madrid won their last four matches against Villarreal.
- Real Madrid are unbeaten in eight home matches, winning seven.
- Villarreal lost each of their last three visits to Real Madrid.
- Villarreal won just once in the last five away matches, losing twice.
- Villarreal have suffered four defeats in their last six outings.
Limited Offer. Currently at Stake
Our Real Madrid vs Villarreal Prediction
This match holds a lot of importance for these teams’ seasonal ambitions. Real Madrid will be looking to hold on to their superb home form, while Villarreal will be up to extend their recent winning run.
History, however, favors Real Madrid here. Los Blancos have beaten Villarreal in each of their last four meetings and only lost once in seven. That, as well as their home form, points us to a home win. Our prediction for Real Madrid v Villarreal is that Real Madrid wins.
Real Madrid vs Villarreal Alternative Predictions
BTTS
While it almost seems guaranteed that Real Madrid will run away with the three points, we can’t vouch for a clean sheet here. Villarreal have been getting comfortable in attack while Real Madrid have lately been leaking goals at the back. There were only two clean sheets in these teams’ last nine meetings, and our second prediction is for both to score here.
Get up to €100 to bet on the Real Madrid vs. Villarreal game
You can get yourself up to €100 in matched bets for the battle between Real Madrid and Villarreal when you join Betway. To get the free bet, your first accumulator bet needs to be a losing one. If your first bet wins, then you won't get the free bet, but you'll have your winnings for further fun on LaLiga!
Real Madrid vs Villarreal - FAQs
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
