Real Madrid vs Athletic Bilbao Prediction & Betting Tips - LaLiga
Spain - LaLiga
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by Ita Emmanuel | in LaLiga Predictions
Second-place Real Madrid round off their 2025-26 La Liga campaign playing host to 12th-place Athletic Bilbao on Saturday. Despite their underwhelming campaign, Real Madrid have picked up 13 points from their last five La Liga home matches, averaging 2.4 goals per contest, hence our prediction favoring Los Blancos and a good goal count.
Vinicius Jr's 15th-minute strike proved decisive as Real Madrid edged Sevilla 1–0 last time out to secure their second consecutive victory. The Vikings haven't tasted defeat in their last five La Liga home matches (W4, D1), and their prolific scoring record (2.4 goals per match) in that stretch is worth noting.
Athletic Bilbao are now winless in their last three matches, dropping to the bottom half of the standings, after drawing 1–1 with Celta Vigo last week. Ernesto Valverde's side have managed just one win in their last five matches (D1, L3), conceding 1.8 goals per match in that run.
Their poor run of form has gotten worse away from home, with the Red-and-Whites losing five of their last six away matches while shipping an average of 2.2 goals per game. They are also winless in their last four La Liga visits to Real Madrid, losing three.
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Real Madrid v Athletic Bilbao Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.53 | 4.8 | 5.6 |
|
|
1.5 | 4.7 | 5.75 |
|
|
1.5 | 4.7 | 5.75 |
|
|
1.5 | 4.5 | 5.5 |
|
|
1.51 | 4.6 | 5.6 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Real Madrid and Athletic Bilbao?
Our prediction for the Real Madrid vs Athletic Bilbao match is: Real Madrid win + over 1.5 goals.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 23/05/2026 between Real Madrid and Athletic Bilbao in LaLiga :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 70.76% for a win of Real Madrid against Athletic Bilbao with odds of 1.56 at 888Starz.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Real Madrid vs Athletic Bilbao is 10.65% with odds of 4.9 at Tonybet.
- Our prediction model gives a 18.6% chance ⭐ for a win of Athletic Bilbao vs Real Madrid with odds of 6 at LSbet.
Real Madrid - Athletic Bilbao Prediction and Best Odds:
| Real Madrid Athletic Bilbao Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid wins | 70.76% | 1.56 at 888Starz |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.78% | |
| Both Team To Score: No | 51.67% | |
| Half-time / Full-time : Real Madrid/Real Madrid | 34.65% | 2.25 at Bet365 |
Real Madrid vs Athletic Bilbao Form
Real Madrid and Athletic Bilbao's standings in the LaLiga
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2
|
86 | 38 | 27 | 5 | 6 | +42 |
|
12
|
45 | 38 | 13 | 6 | 19 | -15 |
Real Madrid and Athletic Bilbao Last Matches
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
17 May 2026 - LaLiga
14 May 2026 - LaLiga
10 May 2026 - LaLiga
3 May 2026 - LaLiga
24 Apr 2026 - LaLiga
21 Apr 2026 - LaLiga
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 May 2026 - LaLiga
21 Apr 2026 - LaLiga
10 Apr 2026 - LaLiga
7 Apr 2026 - Champions League
22 Mar 2026 - LaLiga
14 Mar 2026 - LaLiga
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
17 May 2026 - LaLiga
10 May 2026 - LaLiga
3 May 2026 - LaLiga
24 Apr 2026 - LaLiga
15 Apr 2026 - Champions League
4 Apr 2026 - LaLiga
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
17 May 2026 - LaLiga
13 May 2026 - LaLiga
10 May 2026 - LaLiga
2 May 2026 - LaLiga
25 Apr 2026 - LaLiga
21 Apr 2026 - LaLiga
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
17 May 2026 - LaLiga
10 May 2026 - LaLiga
21 Apr 2026 - LaLiga
12 Apr 2026 - LaLiga
22 Mar 2026 - LaLiga
7 Mar 2026 - LaLiga
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
5/6 (83%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
13 May 2026 - LaLiga
2 May 2026 - LaLiga
25 Apr 2026 - LaLiga
5 Apr 2026 - LaLiga
14 Mar 2026 - LaLiga
4 Mar 2026 - Copa del Rey
Real Madrid vs Athletic Bilbao Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
67 %
17 %
17 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
3 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
20 Apr 2025 - LaLiga
4 Dec 2024 - LaLiga
31 Mar 2024 - LaLiga
12 Aug 2023 - LaLiga
4 Jun 2023 - LaLiga
Real Madrid against Athletic Bilbao Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 4 - 2
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Substitutes
A. Gonzalez
A. Lunin
DefenderF. Garcia
M. Serrano
D. Huijsen
A. Ruediger
MidfielderA. Tchouameni
E. Camavinga
D. Ceballos
B. Diaz
A. Guler
U. Simon
DefenderA. Laporte
J. Areso
A. Gorosabel
I. Lekue
B. Prados
A. Rego Mora
M. Vesga
E. Gift
N. Serrano
U. Izeta
M. Sannadi
Missing players
T. Alexander-Arnold
F. Mendy
E. Militao
ForwardRodrygo
Endrick
Y. Berchiche
U. Egiluz
MidfielderO. Sancet
ForwardN. Williams
Most goals and assists
Real Madrid
Athletic Bilbao
K. Mbappe
(25 Goals)
G. Guruzeta
(10 Goals)
A. Guler
(9 Assists)
Y. Berchiche
(6 Assists)
, 
I. Williams
(6 Assists)
Real Madrid - Athletic Bilbao Key Points
- are unbeaten in their last five La Liga home matches, averaging 2.4 goals per contest across that stretch.
- Athletic Bilbao are winless in their last three La Liga matches.
- Athletic Bilbao have lost five of their last six La Liga away matches, conceding 2.2 goals per game.
- The Red-and-Whites are winless in their last four La Liga visits to Real Madrid.
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Our Real Madrid vs Athletic Bilbao Prediction
Real Madrid have responded well since losing out of the La Liga title race and look set to finish the season on a strong note. The Whites have been particularly formidable at home late while boasting an impressive scoring record.
Meanwhile, Athletic Bilbao's form has tailed off significantly in this run-in and their poor defensive record has persisted. Given this trend, the visitors are likely to struggle against Madrid in a potential high-scoring contest on Saturday. Our Real Madrid vs Athletic Bilbao prediction : Real Madrid win + over 1.5 goals.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Real Madrid Athletic Bilbao
| Real Madrid vs Athletic Bilbao | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid wins | 1.51 | 1.56 | +3.3% |
| Draw | 4.75 | 4.9 | +3.2% |
| Athletic Bilbao wins | 7.11 | 6 | -15.6% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Real Madrid is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 3.3% since opening
- The probability of this result was 66.2% and is now 64.1% (-2.1%)
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
