Newcastle vs Qarabag FK Prediction & Betting Tips - Champions League
Europe - Champions League
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by Steve Ashfield | in Champions League Predictions
If Qarabag qualify for the last 16 of the Champions League, it will be the greatest comeback of them all. Newcastle United host the Azerbaijan side in the second leg of this knockout play-off and the Magpies lead 6-1. Time for our match prediction.
The winners of this tie will be up against Chelsea or Barcelona in the ECL last 16. Newcastle have struggled on their travels in the Premier League this season. To go to Azerbaijan and go into the break leading 5-0 must have been a rather pleasant surprise for United. The main question here is how will they treat this second leg? Five goals clear after the first leg means Eddie Howe wouldn't be blamed for playing a weakened starting line-up.
For Qarabag, they know elimination is just around the corner. To go to Newcastle and even get close to getting back into this tie would be a massive achievement. The Blue and Whites have won four away games in the Champions League but as you'll read in our form guide, their last trip to England was a nightmare.
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Newcastle v Qarabag FK Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.12 | 10 | 20 |
|
|
1.11 | 10 | 17 |
|
|
1.15 | 9.4 | 13 |
|
|
1.14 | 9 | 15 |
|
|
1.13 | 9.2 | 16 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Newcastle and Qarabag FK?
Our prediction for the Newcastle vs Qarabag FK match is: Newcastle wins and both teams score.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 24/02/2026 between Newcastle and Qarabag FK in Champions League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 53.62% for a win of Newcastle against Qarabag FK with odds of 1.2 at 888Starz.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Newcastle vs Qarabag FK is 6.92% with odds of 10 at Stake.
- Our prediction model gives a 39.45% chance ⭐ for a win of Qarabag FK vs Newcastle with odds of 20 at Stake.
Newcastle - Qarabag FK Prediction and Best Odds:
| Newcastle Qarabag FK Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Newcastle wins | 53.62% | 1.2 at 888Starz |
| Over 2.5 goals | 76.31% | |
| Both Team To Score | 64.58% | |
| Half-time / Full-time : Newcastle/Newcastle | 23.12% | 1.5 at Bet365 |
Newcastle vs Qarabag FK Form
Newcastle and Qarabag FK Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
21 Feb 2026 - Premier League
18 Feb 2026 - Champions League
14 Feb 2026 - FA Cup
10 Feb 2026 - Premier League
7 Feb 2026 - Premier League
4 Feb 2026 - Carabao Cup
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
7 Feb 2026 - Premier League
25 Jan 2026 - Premier League
21 Jan 2026 - Champions League
13 Jan 2026 - Carabao Cup
10 Jan 2026 - FA Cup
7 Jan 2026 - Premier League
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
21 Feb 2026 - Premier League
18 Feb 2026 - Champions League
14 Feb 2026 - FA Cup
10 Feb 2026 - Premier League
4 Feb 2026 - Carabao Cup
31 Jan 2026 - Premier League
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
18 Feb 2026 - Champions League
14 Feb 2026 - Topaz Premier League
10 Feb 2026 - Topaz Premier League
5 Feb 2026 - Azerbaijan Cup
1 Feb 2026 - Topaz Premier League
28 Jan 2026 - Champions League
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
18 Feb 2026 - Champions League
1 Feb 2026 - Topaz Premier League
24 Jan 2026 - Topaz Premier League
21 Jan 2026 - Champions League
14 Dec 2025 - Topaz Premier League
10 Dec 2025 - Champions League
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 Feb 2026 - Topaz Premier League
10 Feb 2026 - Topaz Premier League
5 Feb 2026 - Azerbaijan Cup
28 Jan 2026 - Champions League
16 Jan 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
21 Dec 2025 - Topaz Premier League
Newcastle vs Qarabag FK Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
100 %
0 %
0 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
18 Feb 2026 - Champions League
Newcastle - Qarabag FK: Form Analysis
Newcastle are unbeaten in their last four Champions League fixtures. They finished 12th in the league phase of this competition. On home soil, their last three games have all been won to nil. Their only loss was in their opening game to Barcelona, losing 2-1.
The weekend saw the Magpies lose 2-1 at Manchester City, leaving them 11th in the Premier League, nine points behind fifth place. They may well need to win this season's ECL to be in it next term. Home form has seen United win one of their last five games over 90 minutes.
Is this Mission Impossible for Qarabag?
Qarabag head to England for Mission Impossible or is it? It will be if they repeat their last trip to England. That was at Liverpool in their final match in the league phase and the Horsemen were beaten 6-0.
Their last three away games in this competition have been lost. Four away fixtures have been won in this season's Champions League and they have scored in five out of seven away games so could well again get on the scoresheet against Newcastle.
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Newcastle against Qarabag FK Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Formation : 3 - 4 - 2 - 1
Substitutes
A. Harris
J. Ruddy
N. Pope
DefenderL. Hall
L. Shahar
J. Willock
A. Gordon
A. Elanga
S. Neave
Y. Wissa
A. Ramazanov
F. Buntic
DefenderT. Bayramov
A. Huseynov
MidfielderH. Jabrayilzade
L. Andrade
O. Kashchuk
M. Qurbanly
E. Addai
Kady
Missing players
F. Schar
E. Krafth
M. Thiaw
MidfielderB. Guimaraes
L. Miley
Newcastle & Qarabag FK Squad Analysis
Malick Thiaw will miss this second leg for Newcastle. The defender is suspended after being booked in Azerbaijan last week. United won't be too concerned about him serving a suspension for this kind of fixture.
The home side do have several injury problems at present. Players such as Bruno Guimaraes, Fabian Schar, Tino Livramento and Lewis Miley are likely to be missing. Better news is that Yoane Wisa and Sven Botman are candidates to take part on Tuesday.
Time to experiment?
With the tie all but won and a busy Premier League schedule, the Magpies may well make a few changes for this match. If ever Howe wanted the chance to field an experimental line-up, then this is it.
Just how will Qarabag approach this game? They need five goals without reply just to force extra time. Another problem for them is the likely absence of defender Bahlul Mustafazada who only lasted 22 minutes of the first leg.
Do they just go all out for goals in this game? Nothing else is going to see them in with a chance of a miraculous recovery. If they do that, inevitably gaps will be left at the back and that could see the situation get even worse.
Most goals and assists
Newcastle
Qarabag FK
A. Gordon
(10 Goals)
C. Duran
(5 Goals)
J. Murphy
(3 Assists)
,
K. Trippier
(3 Assists)
,
H. Barnes
(3 Assists)
E. Jafarguliyev
(3 Assists)
Newcastle - Qarabag FK Key Points
- Qarabag have scored in five of their last seven away Champions League fixtures.
- Newcastle have won their last three Champions League home games.
- Two of Qarabag's last three games have seen both teams score.
- Both teams have scored in each of Newcastle's last eight matches.
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Our Newcastle vs Qarabag FK Prediction
Newcastle are on their way to the last 16 of the Champions League. Just how would they feel if somehow the Magpies let slip a 6-1 lead from the away leg. With such a big lead, United may well make several team changes, it'll be interesting to see just how many are made.
Qarabag did at least draw the second half of the first leg 1-1. They have to go on the attack here and are facing a side that struggles to keep clean sheets. Our main Newcastle v Qarabag prediction is Newcastle wins and both teams score.
Newcastle vs Qarabag FK Alternative Predictions
Anthony Gordon to score
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Newcastle Qarabag FK
| Newcastle vs Qarabag FK | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle wins | 1.17 | 1.2 | +2.6% |
| Draw | 11.5 | 10 | -13.0% |
| Qarabag FK wins | 13.3 | 20 | +50.4% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Newcastle is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 2.6% since opening
- The probability of this result was 85.5% and is now 83.3% (-2.1%)
Newcastle vs Qarabag FK - FAQs
This Champions League match is being played on Tuesday February 24. Kick-off is scheduled to be 20:00 UK time.
This second leg sees Newcastle being the hosts. The game will be played at St James’ Park in Newcastle, England.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
