Mexico vs Portugal Prediction & Betting Tips - International Friendlies
International - International Friendlies
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by Daniel Ngulu | in Football Predictions
The big news ahead of Portugal’s friendly international against World Cup co-hosts Mexico has been highlighted by Cristiano Ronaldo’s absence. The two sides will be determined to make this more of a serious preparation game than a Ronaldo affair as they clash for the fifth time. Read on for our prediction of this match.
Though just a friendly, this match was expected to be a cracking, star-studded affair with Ronaldo in it. Apart from being a practice game, it will also mark the official opening of the iconic Estadio Banorte, formerly the Azteca Stadium, after two years’ closure for renovation. The venue in Mexico City will host the first match of the 2026 World Cup.
Reportedly, organizers of this encounter had earlier sold tickets at over US$500. However, with Ronaldo pulling out, they are struggling even after a reduction to US$100. It is still expected to be a competitive game for the two nations with high hopes ahead of the coming global event.
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Mexico v Portugal Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.1 | 3.55 | 1.82 |
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4.2 | 3.58 | 1.86 |
|
|
4.36 | 3.76 | 1.79 |
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|
4 | 3.6 | 1.9 |
|
|
4 | 3.6 | 1.86 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Mexico and Portugal?
Our prediction for the Mexico vs Portugal match is: Portugal wins.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 28/03/2026 between Mexico and Portugal in International Friendlies :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 27.23% for a win of Mexico against Portugal with odds of 4.5 at Betway.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Mexico vs Portugal is 30.25% with odds of 3.76 at Betwinner.
- Our prediction model gives a 42.53% chance ⭐ for a win of Portugal vs Mexico with odds of 2 at Betway.
Mexico - Portugal Prediction and Best Odds:
| Mexico Portugal Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Portugal wins | 42.53% | 2 at Betway |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.58% | 2 at Stake |
| Both Team To Score | 50% | |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Portugal | 21.32% | 5 at Bet365 |
Mexico vs Portugal Form
Mexico and Portugal Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
25 Feb 2026 - International Friendlies
25 Jan 2026 - International Friendlies
22 Jan 2026 - International Friendlies
18 Nov 2025 - International Friendlies
15 Nov 2025 - International Friendlies
14 Oct 2025 - International Friendlies
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
25 Feb 2026 - International Friendlies
18 Nov 2025 - International Friendlies
15 Nov 2025 - International Friendlies
14 Oct 2025 - International Friendlies
11 Oct 2025 - International Friendlies
9 Sept 2025 - International Friendlies
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
25 Jan 2026 - International Friendlies
22 Jan 2026 - International Friendlies
6 Jul 2025 - CONCACAF Gold Cup
18 Jun 2025 - CONCACAF Gold Cup
20 Mar 2025 - CONCACAF Nations League
21 Jan 2025 - International Friendlies
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
16 Nov 2025 - World Cup
13 Nov 2025 - World Cup
14 Oct 2025 - World Cup
11 Oct 2025 - World Cup
9 Sept 2025 - World Cup
6 Sept 2025 - World Cup
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
16 Nov 2025 - World Cup
14 Oct 2025 - World Cup
11 Oct 2025 - World Cup
8 Jun 2025 - UEFA Nations League
23 Mar 2025 - UEFA Nations League
15 Nov 2024 - UEFA Nations League
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
13 Nov 2025 - World Cup
9 Sept 2025 - World Cup
6 Sept 2025 - World Cup
4 Jun 2025 - UEFA Nations League
20 Mar 2025 - UEFA Nations League
18 Nov 2024 - UEFA Nations League
Mexico - Portugal: Form Analysis
Mexico will want to make the absence of Cristiano Ronaldo in this game their advantage as they canter towards the finals. The hosts are in good shape going into this game, having won each of their last three games.
They’ve also been solid in defence, keeping four clean sheets in their last five matches. That run has also been key in the team losing just once across their last six outings. In their latest game, the Mexicans were emphatic in a 4-0 defeat of Iceland. Having never beaten Portugal before, playing at home and in their current form will be crucial bits in this game.
Mexico failed to win in six of their last nine friendly matches.
Portugal may be without Ronaldo but will still be a formidable force in this encounter. The former European champions are regarded as one of the favorites to win the 2026 World Cup. That status doesn’t come only because of Ronaldo.
After struggling a bit in the qualifiers, Portugal thrashed Armenia 9-1 to secure their direct ticket to the event. That was their sixth win in nine matches, and they’ve only lost once in the process. In their four previous meetings with Mexico, Portugal posted three wins and a draw. Three wins in their last four away matches keep them as favorites here.
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Mexico vs Portugal last Lineups
Formation : 4 - 1 - 2 - 3
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Substitutes
C. Acevedo
G. Ochoa
DefenderJ. Angulo
E. del Villar
J. Sanchez
MidfielderR. Ledezma
D. Garcia
O. Pineda
C. Rodriguez
E. Sanchez
ForwardA. Gonzalez
G. Martinez
J. Quinones
G. Berterame
A. Vega
J. Sa
R. Velho
DefenderT. Araujo
G. Inacio
J. Cancelo
D. Dalot
MidfielderP. Goncalves
J. Neves
M. Fernandes
Vitinha
ForwardP. Neto
R. Horta
G. Guedes
Paulinho
F. Trincao
Missing players
R. Leao
Mexico & Portugal Squad Analysis
Raul Jimenez will lead the line for Mexico, the Fulham man looking to inspire his nation ahead of the World Cup. With 44 goals, the 34-year-old is the third-highest scorer for Mexico. Seven of those goals have come in Mexico’s last 11 friendly outings.
Fenerbahce midfielder Edson Alvarez will be out of this game with a knee injury as he works hard to return before the World Cup. He isn’t the only absentee for Mexico; midfielder Marcel Ruiz and goalkeeper Luis Malagon are also out injured. With that, veteran keeper Guillermo Ochoa is back in the team and looking to add to his 151 caps.
Mexico’s Ochoa, 40, is bidding for a sixth consecutive World Cup appearance.
Ronaldo’s absence for Portugal is not the only blow for the former European champions. They will also miss the services of first-choice keeper Diogo Costa, Rafael Leao and Rodrigo Mora. Fitness issues have also seen the withdrawal of the Premier League contingent of Joao Palhinha, Ruben Dias, and Bernardo Silva.
Meanwhile Paulinho, who is based in Mexico, gets his chance after five years out of the Portugal team. Mateus Fernandez is in line for his debut while Joao Felix, Vitinha, and Bruno Fernandes make for a star-studded midfield.
Mexico - Portugal Key Points
- Portugal have never lost to Mexico.
- Portugal have won six of their latest nine matches.
- Mexico failed to win six of their last nine friendly games.
- As designated home team, Mexico have managed just one win in seven outings.
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Our Mexico vs Portugal Prediction
Mexico haven't had a great record against Portugal over the years, and that could come to the fore again here. Though they’ve avoided the rigors of the 2026 World Cup qualification, Mexico haven't been at their best.
El Tri failed to win in six of their last nine matches and will have it tough against this Portuguese side. Portugal come into this game with six wins across their last nine outings. Even without Ronaldo, they remain a formidable side. Our prediction for Mexico v Portugal is that Portugal wins.
Mexico vs Portugal Alternative Predictions
BTTS
Though Mexico come into this game as the second best, they cannot be ruled out, especially when playing at home. With Raul Jimenez in the team and enjoying a good run in friendly matches, he will be a top favorite to score. As Portugal bring their fine attacking stars as well, both teams scoring here is a big possibility. We will back BTTS as our second prediction.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Mexico Portugal
| Mexico vs Portugal | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mexico wins | 3.8 | 4.5 | +18.4% |
| Draw | 3.6 | 3.76 | +4.4% |
| Portugal wins | 1.8 | 2 | +11.1% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Portugal is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 11.1% since opening
- The probability of this result was 55.6% and is now 50.0% (-5.6%)
Mexico vs Portugal - FAQs
The Mexico v Portugal match will be hosted at Estadio Banorte, in Mexico City.
The Mexico v Portugal match will be played on Sunday, 29th March.
No. Ronaldo is nursing a hamstring injury sustained at his club, Al Nassr.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
