ATP - ATP Shanghai Masters
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by Steve Ashfield | in ATP Shanghai Masters Predictions
Qualifier Rei Sakamoto faces unseeded Matteo Arnaldi for a place in round two of the Shanghai Masters. Whoever wins this outdoor hard court match will take on 18th-seeded Alejandro Davidovich-Fokina next. Here's our match prediction.
Sakamoto had to win two qualifying matches to make it into this main draw. The 19-year-old got past Brandon Holt and MacKenzie McDonald without dropping a set. Those wins have taken him to a career-high 188th in the live rankings.
This is only his second time in the main draw of an ATP Tour event this year. The other was in Miami where he lost in round one. He's had far more success on the Challenger Tour with one hard court title won in July.
Matteo Arnaldi is 71st in the live rankings and has a career-high of 30th achieved 14 months ago. He's won 12 of his 26 hard court matches in 2025 but has been struggling for wins in recent months. Six of his last seven matches have been lost.
Signs of a comeback came in his last tournament with a win over Luca Nardi before being beaten by Marton Fucsovics. He'll want to recapture the form that saw him get to the Delray Beach semi-final in March.
We tip him to beat Sakamoto.
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The Best Betting Odds for Matteo Arnaldi v Rei Sakamoto Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|
|
1.5 | 2.63 |
|
|
1.5 | 2.6 |
|
|
1.45 | 2.75 |
|
|
1.48 | 2.5 |
|
|
1.54 | 2.48 |
|
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Who will win the Matteo Arnaldi vs Rei Sakamoto Tennis game?
Our prediction for the Matteo Arnaldi vs Rei Sakamoto match is: Matteo Arnaldi to win.
The best winner predictions and betting odds for the Matteo Arnaldi vs Rei Sakamoto game on 02/10/2025 of the current ATP Shanghai Masters season:
- Matteo Arnaldi has a 51.07% chance to win against Rei Sakamoto according to Unibet ⭐ with the odds of 1.54.
- Rei Sakamoto has a 48.93% probability of winning facing Matteo Arnaldi ⭐ with odds of 2.75 at Betway.
Matteo Arnaldi vs Rei Sakamoto Best Prediction and Odds
Based on the bookmaker's betting lines in this match, Matteo Arnaldi has a 51.07 % chance to win.
| Prediction | Chance to win |
|---|---|
| Matteo Arnaldi | 51.07 % |
| Rei Sakamoto | 48.93 % |
Matteo Arnaldi vs Rei Sakamoto Form
Matteo Arnaldi and Rei Sakamoto Last Matches
1/6 (17%)
5/6 (83%)
23 Sep 2025 - ATP Japan Open
22 Sep 2025 - ATP Japan Open
19 Sep 2025 - ATP Hangzhou Open
26 Aug 2025 - ATP US Open
19 Aug 2025 - ATP Winston-Salem Open
7 Aug 2025 - ATP Cincinnati Open
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
30 Sep 2025 - ATP Shanghai Masters
29 Sep 2025 - ATP Shanghai Masters
22 Sep 2025 - ATP Japan Open
22 Sep 2025 - ATP Japan Open
16 Sep 2025 - ATP Chengdu Open
21 Aug 2025 - ATP US Open
Matteo Arnaldi - Rei Sakamoto Key Points
- Arnaldi is 117 places ahead of Sakamoto in the live rankings.
- This is only Sakamoto's second time in the main draw of an ATP Tour hard court event in 2025.
- Arnaldi has been ranked as high as 30th.
- Arnaldi has reached one ATP Tour hard court semi-final this year.
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Our Matteo Arnaldi vs Rei Sakamoto Prediction
This could be a tricky opening match for Matteo Arnaldi. He was in good form in the early part of 2025 but has struggled in recent months with several losses. There appeared to be some light at the end of the tunnel with a victory in his last tournament.
He takes on Japanese teenager Rei Sakamoto who is in only his second ATP Tour hard court main draw of the year. A lot will depend on how good a start he makes here but Arnaldi is far more experienced. Our Matteo Arnaldi v Rei Sakamoto prediction is Matteo Arnaldi to win.
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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