Manchester City vs Aston Villa Prediction & Betting Tips - Premier League
England - Premier League
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by Steve Ashfield | in Premier League Predictions
These two clubs certainly haven't had a quiet week. Both hosts, second placed Manchester City and visitors Aston Villa (who are fourth) have won trophies in the past seven days. However, the Citizens also saw their Premier League title hopes come to an end. This is going to be an emotional match as it appears Pep Guardiola's reign at the Etihad is coming to an end. With Villa having such a hectic week after winning the Europa League, our prediction is a City win and them leading at half and full time.
Although they are on a long unbeaten run in the Premier League, City have been unable to catch Arsenal and the Gunners were crowned champions after the Blues only drew 1-1 at Bournemouth. They have won two trophies this season and will want to end the season on a win.
Aston Villa have to recover from their impressive Europa League victory on Wednesday. The Villans have already confirmed their place in next season's Champions League so there is little to play for here. Well, perhaps for them as slipping fo fifth in the table will free up another Champions League place for English clubs.
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Manchester City v Aston Villa Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.31 | 6.4 | 8.2 |
|
|
1.43 | 5 | 6.5 |
|
|
1.32 | 5.95 | 8 |
|
|
1.42 | 5 | 6.5 |
|
|
1.4 | 5 | 6.8 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Manchester City and Aston Villa?
Our prediction for the Manchester City vs Aston Villa match is: Manchester City wins and leads at half and full time.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 24/05/2026 between Manchester City and Aston Villa in Premier League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 57.16% for a win of Manchester City against Aston Villa with odds of 1.43 at Melbet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Manchester City vs Aston Villa is 16.44% with odds of 6.4 at Stake.
- Our prediction model gives a 26.4% chance ⭐ for a win of Aston Villa vs Manchester City with odds of 8.75 at LSbet.
Manchester City - Aston Villa Prediction and Best Odds:
| Manchester City Aston Villa Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Manchester City wins | 57.16% | 1.43 at Melbet |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71.68% | |
| Both Team To Score | 53.33% | |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Manchester City | 26.74% | 4.75 at Bet365 |
Manchester City vs Aston Villa Form
Manchester City and Aston Villa's standings in the Premier League
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2
|
78 | 38 | 23 | 9 | 6 | +42 |
|
4
|
65 | 38 | 19 | 8 | 11 | +7 |
Manchester City and Aston Villa Last Matches
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
19 May 2026 - Premier League
16 May 2026 - FA Cup
13 May 2026 - Premier League
9 May 2026 - Premier League
4 May 2026 - Premier League
25 Apr 2026 - FA Cup
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
13 May 2026 - Premier League
9 May 2026 - Premier League
25 Apr 2026 - FA Cup
19 Apr 2026 - Premier League
4 Apr 2026 - FA Cup
17 Mar 2026 - Champions League
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
19 May 2026 - Premier League
16 May 2026 - FA Cup
4 May 2026 - Premier League
22 Apr 2026 - Premier League
12 Apr 2026 - Premier League
22 Mar 2026 - Carabao Cup
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
20 May 2026 - Europa League
15 May 2026 - Premier League
10 May 2026 - Premier League
7 May 2026 - Europa League
3 May 2026 - Premier League
30 Apr 2026 - Europa League
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
15 May 2026 - Premier League
7 May 2026 - Europa League
3 May 2026 - Premier League
19 Apr 2026 - Premier League
16 Apr 2026 - Europa League
22 Mar 2026 - Premier League
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
20 May 2026 - Europa League
10 May 2026 - Premier League
30 Apr 2026 - Europa League
25 Apr 2026 - Premier League
12 Apr 2026 - Premier League
9 Apr 2026 - Europa League
Manchester City vs Aston Villa Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
50 %
0 %
50 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
26 Oct 2025 - Premier League
22 Apr 2025 - Premier League
21 Dec 2024 - Premier League
3 Apr 2024 - Premier League
6 Dec 2023 - Premier League
12 Feb 2023 - Premier League
Manchester City - Aston Villa: Form Analysis
Manchester City last lost a Premier League game in January but they still won't be champions this year. Recent draws at Everton and Bournemouth have cost the Citizens dearly and they will only finish second in the table this season. City have at least won the EFL and FA Cups this term.
They have won 14 of their 18 home league games this season with an impressive +32 goal difference. Ten of those 14 wins saw them leading at both half and full time. Each of their last three home EPL fixtures have been won and they are unbeaten in 11 at the Etihad since losing to Real Madrid.
What a week for Villa!
Aston Villa won the Europa League on Wednesday with an impressive 3-0 win over Freiburg. Last weekend saw them defeat Liverpool 4-2 at home to clinch their place in next season's Champions League. They will lose fourth place if being beaten here and Liverpool beat Brentford at home.
That probably doesn't matter a great deal to them after the week they have had. The Lions have won three of their last four matches since being beaten at home by Spurs at the start of this month. On the road, Villa have won six league games but drawn and lost the same number. Three saw them losing at half and full time..
Six away league games have been played by them since their last win. They won the reverse fixture against City 1--0 last October. They were beaten 2-1 at the Etihad last season and that made it ten successive away losses to City, last winning 19 years ago.
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Manchester City against Aston Villa Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 2 - 2 - 2
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Substitutes
M. Bettinelli
DefenderR. Ait-Nouri
J. Gvardiol
M. Alleyne
MidfielderM. Nunes
R. Cherki
M. Kovacic
O. Marmoush
J. Doku
J. Wright
DefenderL. Digne
M. Cash
P. Torres
G. Hemmings
A. Onana
B. Burrowes
J. McGinn
Y. Tielemans
Missing players
E. Martinez
MidfielderB. Kamara
ForwardAlysson
Manchester City & Aston Villa Squad Analysis
The Blues have been boosted by the recent returns of Josko Gvardiol and Rodri. Phil Foden is likely to start this game and it'll be the start of a long break because he hasn't been included in England's World Cup squad.
A day of farewells at the Etihad.
Their title challenge is over and now it has been confirmed that Pep Guardiola. John Stones and Bernardo Silva will be leaving at the end of the season. City will want to give him a good send-off and end the season with a win over Aston Villa on Sunday.
Heaven knows what Aston Villa's preparation has been for this game. They will have to recover not just from a midweek Europa League final but the celebrations that have followed their impressive victory in Istanbul.
There is likely to be a change between the sticks due to the broken finger Emiliano Martinez has suffered. Marco Bizoit is expected to come into the starting line-up. Bournemouth and Brighton fans will be hoping Villa are underprepared as a loss for the Villans could yet see them qualify for next season's Champions League.
Most goals and assists
Manchester City
Aston Villa
E. Haaland
(27 Goals)
O. Watkins
(16 Goals)
R. Cherki
(12 Assists)
L. Digne
(6 Assists)
,
M. Rogers
(6 Assists)
Manchester City - Aston Villa Key Points
- Manchester City are unbeaten in their last 15 league games.
- Ten of City's 14 home league victories saw them ahead at both half and full time.
- Villa have lost six away league games this season and were behind at half and full time in three of them.
- Manchester City have won their last ten home games against Villa.
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Our Manchester City vs Aston Villa Prediction
There will be a strange atmosphere at the Etihad this Sunday. The home fans have last weekend's FA Cup win to celebrate but there's also the end of their Premier League title challenge and the exit of Pep Guardiola to mark. City have won 14 home league games this season.
Aston Villa have to try and recover from their midweek win and the subsequent celebrations. They've had a great season, especially considering their slow start. This will be difficult for them and our main Manchester City v Aston Villa prediction is Manchester City wins and leads at half and full time.
Manchester City vs Aston Villa Alternative Predictions
Manchester City wins
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Manchester City Aston Villa
| Manchester City vs Aston Villa | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City wins | 1.39 | 1.43 | +2.9% |
| Draw | 5.35 | 6.4 | +19.6% |
| Aston Villa wins | 6.75 | 8.75 | +29.6% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Manchester City is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 2.9% since opening
- The probability of this result was 71.9% and is now 69.9% (-2.0%)
Manchester City vs Aston Villa - FAQs
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
