Liverpool vs Chelsea Prediction & Betting Tips - Premier League
England - Premier League
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by Devesh Jaganath | in Premier League Predictions
Matchday 36 in the Premier League kicks off with a battle for European qualification on Saturday afternoon, when Liverpool play host to Chelsea at Anfield. Our match prediction is leaning toward the player props and goals markets since the Reds (4th) and the Blues (9th) have been far from solid at the back lately.
Despite losing to their arch-rivals at Old Trafford last weekend, Arne Slot’s side could guarantee their spot in the UEFA Champions League next season with a victory here. The Merseysiders are currently six points above Bournemouth in sixth place with just three games left to play in the top flight this term.
Managerless Chelsea, on the other hand, slipped three points behind the top seven teams on Monday night after a dismal showing against Nottingham Forest. The West Londoners could still secure European football by winning the FA Cup, but that is certainly not a given when considering their recent downward spiral. Let’s get into the key stats!
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Liverpool v Chelsea Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.95 | 3.9 | 3.7 |
|
|
1.99 | 3.68 | 3.56 |
|
|
1.94 | 3.72 | 3.72 |
|
|
1.95 | 3.8 | 3.6 |
|
|
1.94 | 3.85 | 3.45 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Liverpool and Chelsea?
Our prediction for the Liverpool vs Chelsea match is: Joao Pedro over 0.5 shots on target.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 09/05/2026 between Liverpool and Chelsea in Premier League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 60.91% for a win of Liverpool against Chelsea with odds of 2.01 at 888Starz.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Liverpool vs Chelsea is 9.98% with odds of 3.9 at Stake.
- Our prediction model gives a 29.11% chance ⭐ for a win of Chelsea vs Liverpool with odds of 3.87 at 888Starz.
Liverpool - Chelsea Prediction and Best Odds:
| Liverpool Chelsea Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Liverpool wins | 60.91% | 2.01 at 888Starz |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71.03% | 1.62 at Shangrila |
| Both Team To Score | 60% | |
| Half-time / Full-time : Liverpool/Liverpool | 34.63% | 3.1 at Bet365 |
Liverpool vs Chelsea Form
Liverpool and Chelsea's standings in the Premier League
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5
|
60 | 38 | 17 | 9 | 12 | +10 |
|
10
|
52 | 38 | 14 | 10 | 14 | +6 |
Liverpool and Chelsea Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
3 May 2026 - Premier League
25 Apr 2026 - Premier League
19 Apr 2026 - Premier League
14 Apr 2026 - Champions League
11 Apr 2026 - Premier League
8 Apr 2026 - Champions League
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
25 Apr 2026 - Premier League
14 Apr 2026 - Champions League
11 Apr 2026 - Premier League
18 Mar 2026 - Champions League
15 Mar 2026 - Premier League
28 Feb 2026 - Premier League
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
5/6 (83%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
3 May 2026 - Premier League
19 Apr 2026 - Premier League
8 Apr 2026 - Champions League
4 Apr 2026 - FA Cup
21 Mar 2026 - Premier League
10 Mar 2026 - Champions League
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
4 May 2026 - Premier League
26 Apr 2026 - FA Cup
21 Apr 2026 - Premier League
18 Apr 2026 - Premier League
12 Apr 2026 - Premier League
4 Apr 2026 - FA Cup
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
4 May 2026 - Premier League
26 Apr 2026 - FA Cup
18 Apr 2026 - Premier League
12 Apr 2026 - Premier League
4 Apr 2026 - FA Cup
17 Mar 2026 - Champions League
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
21 Apr 2026 - Premier League
21 Mar 2026 - Premier League
11 Mar 2026 - Champions League
7 Mar 2026 - FA Cup
4 Mar 2026 - Premier League
1 Mar 2026 - Premier League
Liverpool vs Chelsea Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
50 %
17 %
33 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
4 Oct 2025 - Premier League
4 May 2025 - Premier League
20 Oct 2024 - Premier League
25 Feb 2024 - Carabao Cup
31 Jan 2024 - Premier League
13 Aug 2023 - Premier League
Liverpool - Chelsea: Form Analysis
Despite losing their 11th game of the season, 3-2 away to Manchester United last week, Liverpool’s UCL qualification hopes remained strong after Aston Villa slipped up against Spurs.
However, while that loss ended their three-match win streak in the EPL, the positive they would have taken was that it was the fourth league game in a row that they scored two or more goals.
The Reds are unbeaten in their last four league home games (W3 D1) and have earned 34 points in 17 games at Anfield this term. They are also unbeaten in their last four against this opponent at this venue.
The last four games between these sides ended with over 2.5 goals!
Meanwhile, Chelsea are enduring a massive fall from grace of late, and after losing to Nottingham Forest 3-1 on Monday, they are now on a painful six-match losing streak in the Prem.
One minor positive for the Blues is that they did manage to find the back of the net against Forest, which brought an end to their five-match run without scoring a single goal in the league.
The visitors lost and conceded three goals in their last two away games. They have shipped 13 goals in their last four on the road in all competitions, and have not kept an away clean sheet since December 6.
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Liverpool against Chelsea Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 3 - 4 - 2 - 1
Substitutes
F. Woodman
DefenderA. Robertson
J. Gomez
E. Mor Talla Ndiaye
MidfielderK. Morrison
T. Nyoni
F. Chiesa
W. Wright
A. Isak
G. Slonina
DefenderJ. Acheampong
R. James
T. Adarabioyo
T. Chalobah
MidfielderM. Eboue
R. Lavia
ForwardR. Kavuma-Mcqueen
L. Delap
Missing players
Alisson
DefenderC. Bradley
S. Bajcetic
G. Leoni
MidfielderW. Endo
ForwardM. Salah
H. Ekitike
R. Sanchez
MidfielderJ. Derry
ForwardM. Mudryk
J. Gittens
Estevao
Liverpool & Chelsea Squad Analysis
Slot is likely to face more tough decisions in attack this week with Mohamed Salah and Hugo Ekitike out through injury. Alexander Isak has an outside chance of returning in time for kickoff.
Cody Gakpo was deployed in the number nine role against United and got on the scoresheet to level matters at 2-2. Dominik Szoboszlai played in a more advanced role last week, with Curtis Jones starting at right-back.
Alisson is also ruled out, and Giorgi Mamardashvili is a doubt, meaning Freddie Woodman will likely feature in goal. Giovanni Leoni, Wataru Endo and Conor Bradley are also sidelined for the hosts.
Joao Pedro has been directly involved in seven of Chelsea’s last nine EPL goals!
The Brazilian missed the Blues' goalless defeats against Brighton & Hove Albion and Manchester United last month, but he managed to get on the scoresheet against Forest on Monday and should lead the line here.
Calum McFarlane made a big call to replace Tosin Adarabioyo with Levi Colwill at halftime in the last match. The interim boss then asserted that he feels the team will improve with Colwill’s return, which suggests that the young Englishman will start in defence this week.
Robert Sanchez was forced off after a nasty clash of heads with Morgan Gibbs-White on Monday and will join fellow injury absentees Jamie Gittens, Estevao, and Benoit Badiashile on the bench. Pedro Neto and Alejandro Garnacho are doubts.
Most goals and assists
Liverpool
Chelsea
H. Ekitike
(11 Goals)
Joao Pedro
(15 Goals)
M. Salah
(7 Assists)
, 
D. Szoboszlai
(7 Assists)
P. Neto
(6 Assists)
Liverpool - Chelsea Key Points
- Joao Pedro has scored six goals in his last eight league games.
- Joao Pedro is averaging 2.45 shots per 90 this season
- Joao Pedro has is averaging 1.01 shots on target per 90 this season.
- Liverpool are averaging 1.24 xGA per 90 this season.
- Liverpool are conceding 3.97 shots on target per game this season.
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Our Liverpool vs Chelsea Prediction
Given Chelsea’s exceptionally poor form in the Premier League over the past couple of months, it is unsurprising that Liverpool are installed as the clear favourites to come out on top in this weekend’s clash.
However, the Reds have been far from convincing at the back this season, which is something that will give Chelsea some hope. If the Blues are to put up a challenge here, Joao Pedro will be key. The Brazilian returned from injury with a goal against Forest on Monday, and we feel he will record at least a shot on target in this one. Our Liverpool vs Chelsea prediction is Joao Pedro over 0.5 shots on target.
Liverpool vs Chelsea Alternative Predictions
BTTS & over 2.5 goals
Four of Liverpool’s last five league games have ended with over 2.5 goals and with both teams scoring, while three or more goals were scored in four of Chelsea’s last five EPL matches. Additionally, each of the last four league games between these sides ended with both teams scoring and over 2.5 goals.
Liverpool wins
Liverpool have won three of their last four league games and are unbeaten in their last four home matches against this opponent. Chelsea are on a six-match losing streak in the top flight.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Liverpool Chelsea
| Liverpool vs Chelsea | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool wins | 2 | 2.01 | +0.5% |
| Draw | 3.98 | 3.9 | -2.0% |
| Chelsea wins | 3.78 | 3.87 | +2.4% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Liverpool is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 0.5% since opening
- The probability of this result was 50.0% and is now 49.8% (-0.2%)
Liverpool vs Chelsea - FAQs
The Premier League match between Liverpool and Chelsea will take place on May 9 at 12:30 BST.
The Premier League match between Liverpool and Chelsea will be played at Anfield in Liverpool.
The Premier League match between Liverpool and Chelsea will be broadcast on TNT Sports in the UK.
Alternatively, you can follow all the action on our Premier League livescore tool.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
