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Champions League • Group D Day 5
12/01/20 03:00 PM
1 - 0
45' : 0 - 0

Tip Liverpool - Ajax

Liverpool still top this Champions League group despite losing at home to Atalanta last week. They are two points clear of Ajax who they host in their final home group match. Liverpool followed that game with a draw away at Brighton, a game they could have lost but for a missed penalty. Qualification is still looking good for the Reds and a point in this game will take them into the last sixteen. However, a loss to Ajax and win for Atalanta over Midtjylland would see Liverpool drop down to third place in the group with one game left. It had all been going well for Liverpool in this group with three wins and no goals conceded. Then they lost at home to Atalanta and that ended a run of 19 home Champions League games without defeat (over 90 minutes).  They won the away match against Ajax, though it took an own goal to do that. With Salah back now and Jota in great form, Liverpool will hope to get a win here.

Ajax are second but on the same number of points with Atalanta, who they host in their final fixture. They will qualify if beating Atalanta in their final match so a loss at Anfield won't be a disaster for them. Since the opening loss to Liverpool, the Dutch side have beaten Midtjylland 2-0 and drew with Atalanta 2-2. A decent point in Italy but they did lead that game 2-0. Saturday saw them win 5-0 away at FC Emmen as they remain top of their domestic league with nine wins and loss one so far. Ajax travel to Anfield knowing they are unbeaten in their last 16 away games in this competition, their last loss being at Rostov four years ago. Four of their last five away games in the Champions League have had over 2.5 goals scored in them. That stat has also come up in three of the last five Liverpool home matches. A bet on that stat coming up looks a winner here.

Key points Liverpool - Ajax

  • Three of the last five Liverpool home matches have seen over 2.5 goals scored.

  • Four of the last five away Ajax games in the Champions League have had over 2.5 goals scored in them

  • Liverpool have scored in seven of their last eight home Champions League gams.

  • Ajax have scored in 12 of their last 13 away games in this competition.

Conclusion Liverpool - Ajax

Liverpool still have a bit of work to do to qualify for the last sixteen of the Champions League. A point from this game will secure qualiifcation, though they'd expect to get something from the Midtjylland away game that follows. The loss to Atalanta was a surprise, though the Italians are hard to beat when on top form. Ajax are in second place and know a win over Atalanta in their final game will take them into the knock-out stages. Even a win at Anfleld could still see them miss out. They have a good away record in this competition with some notable wins in recent years. A bet on over 2.5 goals in this game looks the safest way to get a profit.

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Liverpool Ajax Prediction published on November 28, 2020

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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.