Leeds vs Burnley Prediction & Betting Tips - Premier League
England - Premier League
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by Steve Ashfield | in Premier League Predictions
Leeds United return to the Premier League after last weekend's FA Cup loss to Chelsea. The Whites are 15th in the table and will aim to secure three valuable points when hosting relegated Burnley. United are six points above the relegation zone with four games to play and a win over Burnley will make the chances of another season in the Premier League even more likely. Read our match prediction below.
United have been in the bottom half of the Premier League table for most of the season. They haven't let their FA Cup run affect their performances in the Premier League and had gone seven games unbeaten before that loss at Wembley last weekend.
Burnley will be returning to the Championship after one season in the Premier League. The Clarets have struggled throughout the season with 22 defeats and their relegation was confirmed when losing 1-0 at home to Manchester City. Coach Scott Parker left the club earlier this week. Their away form has been poor this season with several wide-margin defeats. That's been a major contribution towards their relegation. Could they go to Elland Road and get a league win this weekend?
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Leeds v Burnley Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.37 | 5.4 | 8.4 |
|
|
1.38 | 4.74 | 8.3 |
|
|
1.34 | 5 | 9.1 |
|
|
1.36 | 5 | 8.5 |
|
|
1.37 | 4.6 | 8.2 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Leeds and Burnley?
Our prediction for the Leeds vs Burnley match is: Leeds wins on a -1 handicap.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 01/05/2026 between Leeds and Burnley in Premier League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 56.19% for a win of Leeds against Burnley with odds of 1.41 at Tonybet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Leeds vs Burnley is 21.09% with odds of 5.4 at Stake.
- Our prediction model gives a 22.72% chance ⭐ for a win of Burnley vs Leeds with odds of 9.45 at 888Starz.
Leeds - Burnley Prediction and Best Odds:
| Leeds Burnley Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds wins | 56.19% | 1.41 at Tonybet |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.31% | 1.83 at Bet365 |
| Both Team To Score: No | 59.58% | |
| Half-time / Full-time : Leeds/Leeds | 26.53% | 2 at Bet365 |
Leeds vs Burnley Form
Leeds and Burnley's standings in the Premier League
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
14
|
47 | 38 | 11 | 14 | 13 | -7 |
|
19
|
22 | 38 | 4 | 10 | 24 | -37 |
Leeds and Burnley Last Matches
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
26 Apr 2026 - FA Cup
22 Apr 2026 - Premier League
18 Apr 2026 - Premier League
13 Apr 2026 - Premier League
5 Apr 2026 - FA Cup
21 Mar 2026 - Premier League
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
18 Apr 2026 - Premier League
21 Mar 2026 - Premier League
8 Mar 2026 - FA Cup
3 Mar 2026 - Premier League
28 Feb 2026 - Premier League
6 Feb 2026 - Premier League
1/6 (17%)
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
26 Apr 2026 - FA Cup
22 Apr 2026 - Premier League
13 Apr 2026 - Premier League
5 Apr 2026 - FA Cup
15 Mar 2026 - Premier League
21 Feb 2026 - Premier League
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
5/6 (83%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
22 Apr 2026 - Premier League
19 Apr 2026 - Premier League
12 Apr 2026 - U21 Premier League Cup
11 Apr 2026 - Premier League
23 Mar 2026 - U21 Premier League Cup
21 Mar 2026 - Premier League
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
5/6 (83%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
22 Apr 2026 - Premier League
12 Apr 2026 - U21 Premier League Cup
11 Apr 2026 - Premier League
16 Mar 2026 - U21 Premier League Cup
14 Mar 2026 - Premier League
28 Feb 2026 - Premier League
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
19 Apr 2026 - Premier League
23 Mar 2026 - U21 Premier League Cup
21 Mar 2026 - Premier League
9 Mar 2026 - U21 Premier League Cup
3 Mar 2026 - Premier League
27 Feb 2026 - U21 Premier League Cup
Leeds vs Burnley Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
33 %
33 %
33 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
18 Oct 2025 - Premier League
27 Jan 2025 - Championship
14 Sept 2024 - Championship
2 Jan 2022 - Premier League
29 Aug 2021 - Premier League
15 May 2021 - Premier League
Leeds - Burnley: Form Analysis
Leeds United suffered heartbreak at Wembley last weekend when losing 1-0 to Chelsea. The defeat didn't just end their hopes of reaching the FA Cup final but it means there's no chance of European football next season.
Their sole aim now is a strong end to the season to confirm their place in the Premier League next season. The Whites are six points clear of the bottom three and have a superior goal difference compared to their rivals.
United are unbeaten in their last five league fixtures. Home form has seen them go three without defeat with two wins and a draw. Their most recent home league fixture saw them beat Wolves 3-0.
Another relegation for Burnley.
Burnley will be back in the Championship next season. It has been a struggle for them all season and only four league games have been won this season with 22 being lost. That's ten more losses than their opponents have suffered this season.
The Clarets have lost their last four league fixtures. Their most recent away league game saw them take the lead at Nottingham Forest but end up losing 4-1. They have conceded 42 goals in their 17 away league fixtures this season, scoring only 19.
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Leeds against Burnley Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 3 - 5 - 2
Formation : 5 - 4 - 1
Substitutes
L. Perri
DefenderS. Bornauw
S. Byram
MidfielderS. Longstaff
B. Aaronson
G. Wilfried
J. Piroe
L. Nmecha
D. James
M. Weiss
DefenderJ. Worrall
L. Pires
H. Mejbri
Florentino
L. Ugochukwu
ForwardZ. Amdouni
A. Broja
M. Edwards
Missing players
G. Gudmundsson
MidfielderI. Gruev
C. Roberts
J. Beyer
MidfielderJ. Cullen
Leeds & Burnley Squad Analysis
Leeds are close to securing their place in next season's Premier League. After this home game against Burnley, the Whites have away games against Spurs and West Ham (both below them in the table) and the visit of Brighton to Elland Road.
Three points and a few goals from this game is what they will be looking for. They have few injury problems at present but Gabriel Gudmundsson will need a fitness test on his hamstring problem.
Okafor is in top form for Leeds.
United will be looking for more goals from Noah Okafor. He's scored five goals since the satrt of February. It'd be handy if Dominic Calvert-Lewin could find his scoring boots. The England international has only scored once in his last eight matches.
Burnley are relegated and it will be interesting to see how they approach the rest of the season. It's not uncommon for sides to suddenly start playing better once their relegation has been confirmed.
They still have Aston Villa, Arsenal and Wolves to play this season before they return to the Championship. Unlike their opponents, Burnley have a fair few injury problems at present. Josh Cullen and Connor Roberts will definitely miss the trip to Elland Road.
Their top scorer is Zian Flemming and he has nine league goals this season. It remains to be seen whether he will stay with the club for next season. He is a danger on Burnley's travels with eight of those goals coming on the road.
Most goals and assists
Leeds
Burnley
D. Calvert-Lewin
(14 Goals)
Z. Flemming
(11 Goals)
B. Aaronson
(5 Assists)
Q. Hartman
(5 Assists)
Leeds - Burnley Key Points
- Burnley have lost 12 away league games this season, conceding 42 goals.
- Leeds are unbeaten in their last five league fixtures.
- Four of the last five Leeds wins at home have been by more than a one-goal margin.
- Burnley have lost their last three away league games, all by at least two goals.
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Our Leeds vs Burnley Prediction
This is the first game of this weekend's set of Premier League fixtures. A win for Leeds United will take them nine points clear of the relegation zone and virtually guarantee them Premier League survival. Their home form is strong with no goals conceded in their last three at Elland Road.
Burnley are already doomed to relegation and have conceded 42 away goals this season. Just two of their 17 away league fixtures this season have been won with a dozen defeats.. Our main Leeds v Burnley prediction is Leeds wins on a -1 handicap.
Leeds vs Burnley Alternative Predictions
Leeds wins
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Leeds Burnley
| Leeds vs Burnley | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leeds wins | 1.47 | 1.41 | -4.1% |
| Draw | 4.4 | 5.4 | +22.7% |
| Burnley wins | 6.2 | 9.45 | +52.4% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Leeds is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 4.1% since opening
- The probability of this result was 68.0% and is now 70.9% (2.9%)
Leeds vs Burnley - FAQs
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
