15 Jul 2026, 06:00 

International

Cycling

Tour de France - Stage 11

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Prediction :

 

Tim Merlier wins

 
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Tour de France - Stage 11 Predictions & Betting tips - International

 by Matthew Newman |

Stage 11 of the Tour de France is another day for the sprinters with just a pair of small Category 4 climbs on the day. The 161.3km from Vichy to Nevers will be all about the fastest man and so far in the Tour de France that has proven to be Tim Merlier.

The only place we can possibly start is with Merlier who claimed his third win of this Tour de France on Stage 8. Despite that, he is still only third in the standings in the green jersey classification as top sprinter as he has not shown any interest in picking up points in the intermediate sprints. Stage wins are his aim and he has done a brilliant job to this point.  

The green jersey winner in 2024 was Biniam Girmay and he is second in the standings so far this year, Runner-up on Stage 8 after finishing third on Stage 7, he looks sure to be in the mix once more in the hunt for more points. 

Olav Kooij won the opening sprint stage of the tour but that is looking more and more like it fell in his lap as he has been less competitive since, with a third place on Stage 7 is the best that he has done. Others look stronger but he should not be completely dismissed. 

We mentioned in the other day but the disappointment so far has been Jasper Philipsen. He is yet to stand on the podium after any stage which for a 10-time stage winner here, has to hurt.  

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Tour de France - Stage 11 - International prediction key points

  1. Tim Merlier and Tadej Pogacar both have three stage wins each in this Tour de France.
  2. That gives Merlier five overall in his career in this event.
  3. Those three wins have come from four possible opportunities, things not falling right on the other stage when his team lost position.
  4. The most recent sprint on Stage 8 showed just how dominant Merlier has been, producing a comfortable success.
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Our Tour de France - Stage 11 - International prediction

Our Tour de France Stage 11 prediction is Tim Merlier. Once more in the hills on Stage 10, he was out the back, doing as little as possible to still make it inside the time limit but without having to put it all in. It is not the first time that he has done that on this tour before coming back to win a sprint stage the next day. This is a stage that is going to be set up by his teammates to perfection, and he can reward his team with another sprinting success.

Prediction :

 

Tim Merlier wins

 
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.