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05 October 2022 - 16:10

USA - MLB

Houston Astros
Houston Astros
VS
Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies

Tip :

Houston Astros -1.5 spread

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Houston Astros vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction & Betting Tips (MLB)

 by Joseph |

The regular season comes to a close today in Major League Baseball with the Philadelphia Phillies taking on the Houston Astros at Minute Maid Park in downtown Houston. Both of these teams will be in the playoffs after the Phillies clinched their 2022 postseason appearance with a 3-0 win over the Astros on Monday. Philadelphia’s 87-74 record sees them a game ahead of the Brewers but holding the all-important head-to-head tie-breaker which guarantees their first playoff appearance since 2011 – ending the longest active playoff drought in the NL. On the other side, the Astros have been comfortably qualified for a few weeks. Houston holds the best record in the AL at 105-56 and are the oddsmakers’ second-favorite to win the World Series.

Form

Ranking

1e
Houston Astros
MLB
e
Philadelphia Phillies

Last matches

Houston Astros
Houston Astros Last matches
L L W W L W

4 Oct 2022 - MLB

Houston Astros
10 :  0
Philadelphia Phillies

3 Oct 2022 - MLB

Houston Astros
0 :  3
Philadelphia Phillies

2 Oct 2022 - MLB

Houston Astros
3 :  1
Tampa Bay Rays

1 Oct 2022 - MLB

Houston Astros
2 :  1
Tampa Bay Rays

30 Sep 2022 - MLB

Houston Astros
3 :  7
Tampa Bay Rays

28 Sep 2022 - MLB

Houston Astros
2 :  5
Arizona Diamondbacks
Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies Last matches
W L W W W L

4 Oct 2022 - MLB

Houston Astros
10 :  0
Philadelphia Phillies

3 Oct 2022 - MLB

Houston Astros
0 :  3
Philadelphia Phillies

2 Oct 2022 - MLB

Washington Nationals
1 :  8
Philadelphia Phillies

1 Oct 2022 - MLB

Washington Nationals
2 :  8
Philadelphia Phillies

30 Sep 2022 - MLB

Washington Nationals
1 :  5
Philadelphia Phillies

Head to head

Houston Astros

50 %

Philadelphia Phillies

50 %

4 Oct 2022 - MLB

Houston Astros
10 :  0
Philadelphia Phillies

3 Oct 2022 - MLB

Houston Astros
0 :  3
Philadelphia Phillies

Form Analysis

Houston has been dominant when playing at Minute Maid Park this season and boasts the AL’s second-best home record at 54-26, just a few games behind the New York Yankees. They are 6-4 in their last 10 games and have been able to maintain their consistency despite having nothing to play for with the division already locked up. The Phillies are an even 40-40 on the road this season and have only won four of their last 10. We’ll see if they bounce back from a heavy loss in their last outing in this meaningless regular season finale.

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Squad analysis

Taking the mound for the Astros is Framber Valdez who has had an excellent season with a 16-6 record and a sub 3 ERA at 2.89. Valdez has struggled in his last few starts and made it only five innings before giving up six earned runs on nine hits in his last outing. A strong start here will be vital to the lefties' confidence heading into the playoffs. For the Phillies, Bailey Falter gets the nod and will be looking to add another win to his 6-4 record with an ERA of 3.90. Falter is coming off an excellent outing his last time out and managed to pitch a six inning shutout while only giving up three hits.

Houston Astros - Philadelphia Phillies key points

  1. Houston has been absolutely lethal against left-handed pitchers at home this season with a team OPS of .831 for the fourth best mark in the league.
  2. The Astros strikeout percentage is 15.4% in the last 30 days which is the lowest in all of baseball.
  3. The Astros are 20-10 overall when Framber Valdez takes the mound.
  4. This is only the third meeting between the two teams this season, the Phillies took the first game 3-0 before the Astros responded with a strong 10-0 game in their last outing.
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Our Houston Astros vs Philadelphia Phillies prediction

We’re going to back the Houston Astros on the -1.5 spread to get the win in this one. Houston has been nearly untouchable when playing at Minute Maid Park this season against left-handed pitchers and we expect that trend to continue here. We saw what happened last game with the Phillies already qualified for the playoffs as the Astros stormed to a convincing 10-0 win. A similar type of result would not come as a surprise here, especially with Houston already having been qualified for the postseason for a while now and the Phillies likely still coming down off the excitement of ending their playoff drought.

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Other interesting tips

Houston Astros -0.5 first five innings - odds : 1.83 at William Hill

Houston has the pitching advantage and their powerful lineup should be able to get to Falter at home here.

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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.

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