Hamburg vs Bayer Leverkusen Prediction & Betting Tips - Bundesliga
Germany - Bundesliga
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by Sridhar Bhamidi | in Bundesliga Predictions
Bayer Leverkusen’s faltering Bundesliga season faces a tricky visit to Hamburg in this rescheduled matchday 17 on Wednesday. This match between the 11th-placed ‘Red Shorts’ and the sixth-placed ‘Factory XI’ comes with our prediction of both teams scoring goals.
After last weekend’s matches, Hamburg’s 26 points from 23 matches (W6, D8, L9) place them four points above the relegation zone. Leverkusen have 40 points from 23 games (W12, D4, L7) and are four points behind fifth.
A 2-1 home defeat against Leipzig last weekend ended a six-game unbeaten run for Hamburg (W2, D4). They are still marginally above the relegation zone, and a win here could improve their safety chances dramatically.
Hamburg’s home form has been core to their season’s chances, as they have lost only two of their last 11 Bundesliga home games (W5, D4). The ‘Red Shorts’ even held leaders Bayern Munich to a draw at this venue, so they have proved their worth as a tough team.
Leverkusen were held to a 1-1 home draw against Mainz last weekend, continuing their indifferent form (W1, D2, L1) since February. The visitors have lost steam in their push for Champions League qualification spots, and dropping points here will cause more worries.
Their away form has been indifferent too, as Leverkusen have won just once in their last four league trips (D1, L2).
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Hamburg v Bayer Leverkusen Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.75 | 3.7 | 1.98 |
|
|
3.52 | 3.54 | 2.05 |
|
|
3.78 | 3.64 | 1.94 |
|
|
3.75 | 3.6 | 1.95 |
|
|
3.5 | 3.5 | 2.02 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Hamburg and Bayer Leverkusen?
Our prediction for the Hamburg vs Bayer Leverkusen match is: BTTS.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 04/03/2026 between Hamburg and Bayer Leverkusen in Bundesliga :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 36.97% for a win of Hamburg against Bayer Leverkusen with odds of 3.96 at 888Starz.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Hamburg vs Bayer Leverkusen is 31.9% with odds of 3.81 at 888Starz.
- Our prediction model gives a 31.13% chance ⭐ for a win of Bayer Leverkusen vs Hamburg with odds of 2.05 at Melbet.
Hamburg - Bayer Leverkusen Prediction and Best Odds:
| Hamburg Bayer Leverkusen Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Hamburg wins | 36.97% | 3.96 at 888Starz |
| Under 2.5 | 57.94% | 2.16 at Tonybet |
| Both Team To Score: No | 52.08% | |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Hamburg | 17.78% | 9 at LSbet |
Hamburg vs Bayer Leverkusen Form
Hamburg and Bayer Leverkusen's standings in the Bundesliga
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
6
|
59 | 34 | 17 | 8 | 9 | +21 |
|
13
|
38 | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | -14 |
Hamburg and Bayer Leverkusen Last Matches
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
1 Mar 2026 - Bundesliga
20 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
14 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
7 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
31 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
23 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
1 Mar 2026 - Bundesliga
14 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
31 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
17 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
20 Dec 2025 - Bundesliga
7 Dec 2025 - Bundesliga
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
20 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
7 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
23 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
10 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
13 Dec 2025 - Bundesliga
22 Nov 2025 - Bundesliga
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
28 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
24 Feb 2026 - Champions League
21 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
18 Feb 2026 - Champions League
14 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
7 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
28 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
24 Feb 2026 - Champions League
14 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
3 Feb 2026 - DFB Pokal
28 Jan 2026 - Champions League
24 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
21 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
18 Feb 2026 - Champions League
7 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
31 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
20 Jan 2026 - Champions League
17 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
Hamburg vs Bayer Leverkusen Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
50 %
0 %
50 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
24 Sept 2017 - Bundesliga
3 Feb 2017 - Bundesliga
Hamburg against Bayer Leverkusen Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 3 - 4 - 3
Formation : 3 - 4 - 2 - 1
Substitutes
S. Tangvik
DefenderW. Mikelbrencis
J. Torunarigha
N. Katterbach
MidfielderA. Sambi Lokonga
J. Dompe
F. Balde
O. Stange
R. Glatzel
J. Omlin
N. Lomb
DefenderT. Oermann
MidfielderM. Tillman
E. Fernandez
A. Tape
J. Hofmann
ForwardE. Poku
Missing players
A. Gronbaek
ForwardA. Rossing Lelesiit
M. Flekken
DefenderL. Vazquez
L. Bade
ForwardN. Tella
E. Ben Seghir
Most goals and assists
Hamburg
Bayer Leverkusen
F. Vieira
(7 Goals)
P. Schick
(16 Goals)
F. Vieira
(5 Assists)
A. Garcia
(8 Assists)
Hamburg - Bayer Leverkusen Key Points
- In four of their last five Bundesliga matches, Hamburg saw both teams score goals.
- Seven of Hamburg’s last eight home league games saw both teams score goals.
- Hamburg conceded in 10 of their 12 home league matches this season.
- Leverkusen have failed to keep a clean sheet in their 11 away Bundesliga matches this season.
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Our Hamburg vs Bayer Leverkusen Prediction
The last time these sides played was in the 2017-18 season, when Leverkusen won both the seasonal fixtures. Both teams are coming off disappointing results, Hamburg beaten at home and Leverkusen drawing at home. Unfortunately for Leverkusen, this ‘game in hand’ can no longer be their ticket to the top four, as even a win can’t lift them above sixth. On the contrary, Hamburg can keep moving up the table and also give hope for Leverkusen’s challengers by earning points here.
Goals could be the theme considering the poor defences on display, so our Hamburg vs Bayer Leverkusen prediction is BTTS.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Hamburg Bayer Leverkusen
| Hamburg vs Bayer Leverkusen | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hamburg wins | 3.64 | 3.96 | +8.8% |
| Draw | 3.78 | 3.81 | +0.8% |
| Bayer Leverkusen wins | 2.1 | 2.05 | -2.4% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Hamburg is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 8.8% since opening
- The probability of this result was 27.5% and is now 25.3% (-2.2%)
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
