Italian Grand Prix Qualifying Predictions & Betting tips - Formula 1

Prediction published on 04/09/2026, 10:23  by Devesh Jaganath | Modified on 05/09/2026 at 02:32

Formula 1 heads to Monza for the Italian Grand Prix this weekend. Ferrari are the home favourites and are set to unleash a major engine upgrade this weekend, which sees us leaning toward a big performance from the SF-26 as our qualifying prediction. 

Ferrari unleashed the second of their two engine upgrades for the season, and the expectation is that the SF-26 will now benefit from an extra 15 horsepower on their home track this weekend. 

The upgrades to the Scuderia paid immediate dividends on Friday afternoon, as Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton secured a one-two finish at the Italian Grand Prix Free Practice. 

Leclerc was the star of the show, clocking a solid time of 1:23.008s, 0.173s ahead of his seven-time world champion in second place, while George Russell finished in third place. 

Hamilton is looking to become the out-and-out most successful driver at Monza, but the Englishman has not won here since 2017-18, a period during which Leclerc has tasted victory here twice. 

Given that Monza is a track that sees cars spending close to 80% of the Grand Prix at full throttle, Mercedes and Ferrari are expected to dominate, but Kimi Antonelli will start from the back of the grid. 

The current Drivers’ Championship leader clinched fifth place in FP1, but will have to navigate the entire field after exceeding his allowance of engine parts for the season.