Tip Everton - Aston Villa
Aston Villa finally won a league match at the weekend but so did each of the three teams directly above them in the table. They ended the weekend still in 19th place and travel to Everton who are 11th in the league. Villa beat Crystal Palace 2-0 at home to win their first league game since February. Despite that victory, Villa remain four points from safety with three games remaining. They have an inferior goal difference so it's all but a five-point gap with only nine to play for. Villa won't want Bournemouth to get anything from their away game at Manchester City on Tuesday and will want a positive result in the West Ham v Watford game (16th v 17th) being played on July 17. Villa will have gained some confidence from that win over Palace but a couple more will be needed if they are to stay up. After this match, they host Arsenal and then travel to West Ham. Their dream is to be able to go West Ham on the final day of the season with the chance to win and stay in the Premier League. Their away form is not inspiring though with just two points earned from their last six on the road. Only two away league games have been won this season and they were at Burnley and now-relegated Norwich City. 35 away league goals have been conceded this season, only Newcastle on 37 have let in more.
Everton are a good side but far better at Goodison Park. They have earned 30 points at home this season, compared to the 15 gained on their travels. The weekend saw them lose 3-0 at Wolves, making it four losses in the last five away games. That poor form is why it is extremely unlikely that they will be in the Europa League next season. Even if finishing eigth was good enough (unlikely unless Wolves or Manchester United win the Europa League this season), that's seven points away. Everton are unbeaten in their last ten home league games and none have been lost under Carlo Ancelotti. Liverpool didn't win at Goodison, nor did Arsenal and both Chelsea and Leicester lost there, so why should Villa get three points? Two of the last three at home have had under 2.5 goals scored in them and four out of six, home and away. Go for a low-scoring match with under 2.5 goals scored.
Key points Everton - Aston Villa
Two of the last three Everton home league games have seen under 2.5 goals scored in them.
There have been under 2.5 goals scored in four of the last six Everton league matches.
Four of the last five Aston Villa league fixtures have had under 2.5 goals scored in them.
The 2-0 win over Crystal Palace is the only time Villa have scored in their last four league matches.
Four of their last six away league games played by Aston Villa have had under 2.5 goals scored in them.
Conclusion Everton - Aston Villa
Everton will need to vastly improve their away form next season if they want European football again. The weekend saw another poor loss but they are a lot better at home with eight league victories. They only concede an average of one goal per home game and host a Villa side that struggle for goals on their travels. The win over Palace was a much needed one and it will be interesting to see how they react to that success. Away form is poor though and a bet on under 2.5 goals in this game looks the safest to make.
Everton Aston Villa Prediction published on July 13, 2020