Daniil Medvedev vs Tommy Paul Prediction & Betting Tips - ATP Shanghai Masters
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by Steve Ashfield | in ATP Shanghai Masters Predictions
Tommy Paul is in his first Shanghai Masters quarter-final. The 15th seed takes on fifth seed Daniil Medvedev for a place in the last four of this outdoor hard court Masters tournament. Paul has never beaten Medvedev on this surface, including two heavy defeats. Our prediction is a win for Daniil Medvedev.
The winner will take on either 12th seed Rafael Jodar or 20th-seeded Casper Ruud in the semi-finals.
Daniil Medvedev is playing in his third successive semi-final. He won the Chengdu Open and then lost in the last four in Beijing after defaulting against Novak Djokovic.
He has already won three ATP Tour events on this surface in 2026.
Medvedev has reached the last eight for the loss of only one set in his opening match against Jan-Lennard Struff.
He leads Paul 4-1 in previous meetings and 3-0 on this surface. Two of those wins saw Paul win a combined total of just seven games.
Tommy Paul could well give Medvedev a tougher match than that in Shanghai.
He has played three matches in this tournament and is yet to lose a set. Paul has beaten Adolfo Daniel Vallejo and the defending champion Valentin Vacherot.
The fourth round saw him beat Zizou Bergs who had previously beaten Carlos Alcaraz.
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Daniil Medvedev v Tommy Paul Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|
|
1.50 | 2.55 |
|
|
1.54 | 2.55 |
|
|
1.51 | 2.55 |
|
|
1.51 | 2.55 |
|
|
1.44 | 2.75 |
|
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Who will win the Daniil Medvedev vs Tommy Paul Tennis game?
Our prediction for the Daniil Medvedev vs Tommy Paul match is: Daniil Medvedev wins.
The best winner predictions and betting odds for the Daniil Medvedev vs Tommy Paul game on 15/10/2026 of the current ATP Shanghai Masters season:
- Daniil Medvedev has a 65.83% chance to win against Tommy Paul according to 1xbet ⭐ with the odds of 1.54.
- Tommy Paul has a 34.17% probability of winning facing Daniil Medvedev ⭐ with odds of 2.75 at Bet365.
Daniil Medvedev vs Tommy Paul Best Prediction and Odds
Based on the bookmaker's betting lines in this match, Daniil Medvedev has a 65.83 % chance to win.
| Prediction | Chance to win |
|---|---|
| Daniil Medvedev | 65.83 % |
| Tommy Paul | 34.17 % |
Daniil Medvedev vs Tommy Paul Form
Daniil Medvedev and Tommy Paul Last Matches
6/6 (100%)
0/6 (0%)
14 Oct 2026 - ATP Shanghai Masters
12 Oct 2026 - ATP Shanghai Masters
9 Oct 2026 - ATP Shanghai Masters
4 Oct 2026 - ATP Beijing Open
3 Oct 2026 - ATP Beijing Open
2 Oct 2026 - ATP Beijing Open
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
14 Oct 2026 - ATP Shanghai Masters
12 Oct 2026 - ATP Shanghai Masters
10 Oct 2026 - ATP Shanghai Masters
29 Sept 2026 - ATP Japan Open
6 Sept 2026 - ATP US Open
4 Sept 2026 - ATP US Open
Daniil Medvedev vs Tommy Paul Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
75 %
25 %
11 Mar 2025 - ATP Indian Wells
14 May 2024 - ATP Italian Open
16 Mar 2024 - ATP Indian Wells
28 Sept 2023 - ATP Beijing Open
Daniil Medvedev - Tommy Paul Key Points
- Medvedev has won three ATP Tour outdoor hard court titles this year.
- Medvedev has won all three of his previous three matches against Paul played on this surface.
- Two of those three wins saw Paul win just seven games.
- A win for Medvedev will take him into his third straight outdoor hard court semi-final with one title won.
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Our Daniil Medvedev vs Tommy Paul Prediction
Daniil Medvedev has won 33 matches on outdoor hard courts. That has seen him win three titles on the ATP Tour. A win over Paul will see him rise to sixth in the ATP Tour Live Race. This is his fourth match against Paul on this surface and he's won all three of the previous meetings.
Tommy Paul is yet to lose a set in this tournament, while Medvedev has lost just one in his opening match. Daniil Medvedev has won ten of his last 11 matches being won. Our Daniil Medvedev v Tommy Paul prediction is Daniil Medvedev wins.
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
