PFC CSKA Sofia vs Derry City Prediction & Betting Tips - Europa League
Europe - Europa League
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by Geoffrey Ejiga | in Europa League Predictions
CSKA Sofia welcome Derry City to the Stadion Vasil Levski on Thursday for a Europa League first qualifying round tie with a nostalgic edge, repeating their 2009 meeting. Goals should be scarce: each of the Reds' last seven competitive fixtures last season finished under 2.5 goals, the trend that anchors our prediction on the under 2.5 market.
The Reds head into Europe with silverware behind them, having won the Bulgarian Cup on penalties against Lokomotiv Plovdiv in May despite a fourth-place league finish. Hristo Yanev's side closed their preparations with a 3-0 win over Marek, and new signing Stefano Sensi, formerly of Inter Milan, is set for his competitive debut.
The Candystripes, meanwhile, are in survival mode. Just two wins in their last 12 league games, a 4-2 home defeat to Waterford, and an injury crisis so severe that Tiernan Lynch could name only three senior outfield substitutes last week paint a bleak picture. Derry have also managed just one away win since the end of January.
With key midfielder Adam O'Reilly suspended and the Candystripes rushing three new signings into the squad, expect the visitors to prioritise damage limitation in Sofia, exactly as they did in 2009, when the Reds edged this same fixture 1-0.
Limited Offer. Currently at Stake
PFC CSKA Sofia v Derry City Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.2 | 5.75 | 11.25 |
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|
1.2 | 5.9 | 14.7 |
|
|
1.21 | 5.75 | 14.8 |
|
|
1.19 | 6.35 | 14 |
|
|
1.2 | 5.9 | 14.7 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between PFC CSKA Sofia and Derry City?
Our prediction for the PFC CSKA Sofia vs Derry City match is: under 2.5 goals.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 09/07/2026 between PFC CSKA Sofia and Derry City in Europa League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 54.52% for a win of PFC CSKA Sofia against Derry City with odds of 1.24 at Shangrila.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between PFC CSKA Sofia vs Derry City is 32.93% with odds of 15 at Betway.
- Our prediction model gives a 12.55% chance ⭐ for a win of Derry City vs PFC CSKA Sofia with odds of 151 at Betway.
PFC CSKA Sofia - Derry City Prediction and Best Odds:
| PFC CSKA Sofia Derry City Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| PFC CSKA Sofia wins | 54.52% | 1.24 at Shangrila |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.22% | 1.57 at Betway |
| Both Team To Score | 59.52% | |
| Half-time / Full-time : PFC CSKA Sofia/PFC CSKA Sofia | 22.18% | 1.75 at Roobet |
PFC CSKA Sofia vs Derry City Form
PFC CSKA Sofia and Derry City Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
3 Jul 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
28 Jun 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
24 Jun 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
20 Jun 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
25 May 2026 - efbet Liga
20 May 2026 - Bulgarian Cup
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
3 Jul 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
24 Jun 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
20 Jun 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
13 May 2026 - efbet Liga
3 May 2026 - efbet Liga
29 Apr 2026 - Bulgarian Cup
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
28 Jun 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
25 May 2026 - efbet Liga
20 May 2026 - Bulgarian Cup
16 May 2026 - efbet Liga
8 May 2026 - efbet Liga
21 Apr 2026 - Bulgarian Cup
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
3 Jul 2026 - Airtricity League
26 Jun 2026 - Airtricity League
22 Jun 2026 - Airtricity League
19 Jun 2026 - Airtricity League
12 Jun 2026 - Airtricity League
29 May 2026 - Airtricity League
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
3 Jul 2026 - Airtricity League
26 Jun 2026 - Airtricity League
12 Jun 2026 - Airtricity League
25 May 2026 - Airtricity League
22 May 2026 - Airtricity League
4 May 2026 - Airtricity League
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
22 Jun 2026 - Airtricity League
19 Jun 2026 - Airtricity League
29 May 2026 - Airtricity League
15 May 2026 - Airtricity League
8 May 2026 - Airtricity League
1 May 2026 - Airtricity League
PFC CSKA Sofia - Derry City Key Points
- Each of CSKA Sofia's last seven competitive fixtures last season finished with under 2.5 goals.
- Derry City have won just two of their last 12 league matches, a rut stretching back to April 24.
- The Candystripes have claimed only one away win since the end of January.
- Derry midfielder Adam O'Reilly is suspended following his red card in last season's European exit.
- CSKA have suffered just one home competitive defeat since mid-January.
- When these sides met in Sofia in 2009, CSKA won 1-0.
Limited Offer. Currently at Stake
Our PFC CSKA Sofia vs Derry City Prediction
Everything about this tie points to a cagey, low-scoring night. The Reds' end to last season was built on tight margins, with seven straight competitive games under 2.5 goals, while the Candystripes travel with a threadbare, injury-hit squad and a single away win in over five months.
Derry's only realistic approach is to sit deep and keep the tie alive for the Brandywell return, mirroring the 1-0 margin this fixture produced in 2009. Hence, our PFC CSKA Sofia vs Derry City prediction is under 2.5 goals.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis PFC CSKA Sofia Derry City
| PFC CSKA Sofia vs Derry City | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| PFC CSKA Sofia wins | 1.32 | 1.24 | -6.1% |
| Draw | 4.85 | 15 | +209.3% |
| Derry City wins | 8.75 | 151 | +1,625.7% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- PFC CSKA Sofia is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 6.1% since opening
- The probability of this result was 75.8% and is now 80.6% (4.9%)
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
