Chelsea vs Port Vale Prediction & Betting Tips - FA Cup
England - FA Cup
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by Devesh Jaganath | in FA Cup Predictions
Club football returns with a David vs. Goliath battle this Saturday, when Port Vale arrive at Stamford Bridge to take on Chelsea in the quarter-final of the FA Cup. The Blues last won this title in 2020-21, while the Valiants are featuring in the last eight of the FA Cup for the first time in 72 years. Check out our match prediction below!
Having scraped through the last round of the FA Cup before losing four in a row up to the international break, Liam Rosenior is a man under major pressure coming into this fixture. Now out of the Champions League and with fixtures against the two Manchester clubs to come, Chelsea’s new boss’s future at the Bridge is well and truly on the line in this match.
However, the one positive for the West Londoners is that they could not have chosen a more favourable opponent - set to face the lowest-ranked team remaining in the competition. Indeed, Jon Brady’s side looks destined to drop to League Two next season, but can they keep their fairytale run in football’s oldest cup competition going this weekend? Let’s get into the key stats!
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Chelsea v Port Vale Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.04 | 15 | 40 |
|
|
1.04 | 19 | 29 |
|
|
1.04 | 19 | 29 |
|
|
1.03 | 19 | 29 |
|
|
1.06 | 13 | 30 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Chelsea and Port Vale?
Our prediction for the Chelsea vs Port Vale match is: Chelsea wins & BTTS (NO).
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 04/04/2026 between Chelsea and Port Vale in FA Cup :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 57.17% for a win of Chelsea against Port Vale with odds of 1.08 at Shangrila.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Chelsea vs Port Vale is 14.44% with odds of 19 at Melbet.
- Our prediction model gives a 28.39% chance ⭐ for a win of Port Vale vs Chelsea with odds of 50 at Tonybet.
Chelsea - Port Vale Prediction and Best Odds:
| Chelsea Port Vale Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Chelsea wins | 57.17% | 1.08 at Shangrila |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.42% | |
| Both Team To Score: No | 59.52% | |
| Half-time / Full-time : Chelsea/Chelsea | 25.85% | 1.3 at LSbet |
Chelsea vs Port Vale Form
Chelsea and Port Vale Last Matches
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
21 Mar 2026 - Premier League
17 Mar 2026 - Champions League
14 Mar 2026 - Premier League
11 Mar 2026 - Champions League
7 Mar 2026 - FA Cup
4 Mar 2026 - Premier League
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
17 Mar 2026 - Champions League
14 Mar 2026 - Premier League
21 Feb 2026 - Premier League
10 Feb 2026 - Premier League
31 Jan 2026 - Premier League
21 Jan 2026 - Champions League
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
21 Mar 2026 - Premier League
11 Mar 2026 - Champions League
7 Mar 2026 - FA Cup
4 Mar 2026 - Premier League
1 Mar 2026 - Premier League
13 Feb 2026 - FA Cup
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
28 Mar 2026 - League One
24 Mar 2026 - League One
21 Mar 2026 - League One
17 Mar 2026 - League One
14 Mar 2026 - League One
11 Mar 2026 - League One
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
21 Mar 2026 - League One
14 Mar 2026 - League One
11 Mar 2026 - League One
8 Mar 2026 - FA Cup
3 Mar 2026 - FA Cup
28 Feb 2026 - League One
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
28 Mar 2026 - League One
24 Mar 2026 - League One
17 Mar 2026 - League One
24 Feb 2026 - League One
17 Feb 2026 - League One
31 Jan 2026 - League One
Chelsea - Port Vale: Form Analysis
Chelsea made light work of Charlton and Hull in their first two FA Cup games, but they needed extra time to get the better of Wrexham in the last round after the match ended 2-2 in 90 minutes.
The fixture against the Red Dragons marked the start of a major dip in form for the Blues. They lost all four matches after that up to the international break, including an 8-2 aggregate defeat to PSG in the UCL RO16.
The hosts have conceded three goals in each of their last two games and a total of 14 in their last five. They have also failed to score in their last three across all competitions ahead of this one.
Chelsea are winless in their last four home matches across all competitions!
Meanwhile, Port Vale kicked off their FA Cup campaign with a victory over Maldon & Tiptree, before knocking out Bristol Rovers, Fleetwood Town, and Bristol City. They then pulled off a massive upset, beating Sunderland 1-0 in round five.
However, since that shock win over the Black Cats, the Valiants have only won one of their last six games in all competitions (D1 L4) and failed to score in four matches during this period.
The visitors are rooted to the bottom of the table in League One after 38 games and enter this one riding a three-match losing streak on the road. They have only won three of their last 15 away games in all competitions.
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Chelsea against Port Vale Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 5 - 3 - 2
Substitutes
T. Sharman-Lowe
DefenderM. Sarr
J. Acheampong
M. Cucurella
MidfielderM. Caicedo
D. Essugo
L. Delap
A. Garnacho
R. Kavuma-Mcqueen
B. Amos
DefenderE. Campbell
T. Magloire
G. Hall
E. Archer
R. Croasdale
J. Shipley
ForwardJ. Stockley
A. Gray
Missing players
F. Jorgensen
DefenderT. Chalobah
R. James
B. Badiashile
L. Colwill
ForwardM. Mudryk
J. Gittens
B. Heneghan
MidfielderG. Byers
Chelsea & Port Vale Squad Analysis
Given Chelsea’s dip leading up to the break, it is unlikely that Rosenior will risk leaving too many of his first-team players out here, which could mean Cole Palmer will get his first FA Cup start of the season.
However, one of the Blues’ fringe players that is likely to keep his spot is Josh Acheampong, who scored the leveller against Wrexham and was impressive for the England under-21s during the international break.
The hosts have a handful of injury absentees for this clash, including Filip Jorgensen, Jamie Gittens, Levi Colwill and Reece James, while Benoit Badashile is listed as a doubt due to an illness.
Joao Pedro has 13 goal contributions in his last 10 Premier League games for Chelsea!
New Zealand international Ben Waine was the hero for Port Vale, scoring what turned out to be the winner against Sunderland in the last round, and he is now the team’s top scorer in this competition with three goals.
The departure of Devante Cole to Luton in the winter window has left the Valiants short of firepower up top, with Dajaune Brown having only netted one goal in 20 league appearances for the club this term.
The visitors have just two confirmed injury absentees for this trip to West London in Ben Heneghan and George Byers.
Chelsea - Port Vale Key Points
- Chelsea have only lost one of their last six home games in all competitions.
- Chelsea have scored two or more goals in each of their FA Cup matches this season.
- Port Vale have only won one of their last six games in all competitions.
- Port Vale have failed to score in three of their last four matches.
- Port Vale are on a three-match losing streak on the road and have failed to score in their last two.
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Our Chelsea vs Port Vale Prediction
While Chelsea were on a downward trajectory ahead of the international break with four consecutive losses, those defeats came against PSG (twice), Newcastle and Everton - all teams that are much better than their upcoming opponents.
Port Vale may have got to the quarter-final of this competition, but they are bottom of League One and have failed to score in three of their last four matches ahead of this fixture. Given the gulf in class between these sides, we fancy the Blues to secure a comfortable victory in this one. Our Chelsea vs Port Vale prediction is Chelsea wins & BTTS (NO).
Chelsea vs Port Vale Alternative Predictions
Port Vale under 2.5 shots on target
Port Vale have recorded fewer than two shots on target in six of their last 10 away league games. They also had just a single attempt on target against Sunderland in the last round of this competition.
Chelsea wins
Given all the same reasons in our main prediction, our safe option for accumulators for the day is a straight-up Chelsea win.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Chelsea Port Vale
| Chelsea vs Port Vale | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea wins | 1.15 | 1.08 | -6.1% |
| Draw | 7.4 | 19 | +156.8% |
| Port Vale wins | 21 | 50 | +138.1% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Chelsea is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 6.1% since opening
- The probability of this result was 87.0% and is now 92.6% (5.6%)
Chelsea vs Port Vale - FAQs
The FA Cup quarter-final between Chelsea and Port Vale will take place on April 4 at 16:15 GMT.
The FA Cup quarter-final between Chelsea and Port Vale will be played at Stamford Bridge in London.
The FA Cup quarter-final between Chelsea and Port Vale will be broadcast on BBC Sport and TNT Sports in the UK.
Alternatively, you can follow all the action on our FA Cup livescore tool.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
