Chelsea vs Manchester City Prediction & Betting Tips - FA Cup
England - FA Cup
New customers only | Commercial content | 18+ age limit | T&Cs apply
by Steve Ashfield | in FA Cup Predictions
Manchester City are playing in their fourth successive FA Cup final. Saturday but have lost the last two. Saturday sees the Citizens take on Chelsea at Wembley in the final of this historic competition. They are the side in form and our match prediction is that City will win this final in 90 minutes.
A win for City will be their second trophy of the season. They have already won the EFL Cup and are second in the Premier League. The past two seasons have seen them beaten in the FA Cup final at Wembley. Will this weekend see them win the FA Cup for the first time since the 2022-23 season?
This match means so much to Chelsea as the Blues are in danger of missing out on European football next season. A first FA cup win since 2018 will change all of that. They will need to improve a record of four straight FA Cup final defeats. Will that all change on Saturday?
Limited Offer. Currently at Stake
Chelsea v Manchester City Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.5 | 4 | 1.75 |
|
|
4.8 | 3.8 | 1.72 |
|
|
4.4 | 4.08 | 1.72 |
|
|
4.5 | 3.9 | 1.68 |
|
|
4.4 | 3.9 | 1.75 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Chelsea and Manchester City?
Our prediction for the Chelsea vs Manchester City match is: Manchester City wins.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 16/05/2026 between Chelsea and Manchester City in FA Cup :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 19.77% for a win of Chelsea against Manchester City with odds of 4.8 at Melbet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Chelsea vs Manchester City is 19.06% with odds of 4.1 at Tonybet.
- Our prediction model gives a 61.18% chance ⭐ for a win of Manchester City vs Chelsea with odds of 1.75 at Stake.
Chelsea - Manchester City Prediction and Best Odds:
| Chelsea Manchester City Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Manchester City wins | 61.18% | 1.75 at Stake |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.59% | 1.87 at Roobet |
| Both Team To Score: No | 69.58% | |
| Half-time / Full-time: Manchester City/Manchester City | 27.07% | 2.63 at Bet365 |
Chelsea vs Manchester City Form
Chelsea and Manchester City Last Matches
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
9 May 2026 - Premier League
4 May 2026 - Premier League
26 Apr 2026 - FA Cup
21 Apr 2026 - Premier League
18 Apr 2026 - Premier League
12 Apr 2026 - Premier League
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
4 May 2026 - Premier League
26 Apr 2026 - FA Cup
18 Apr 2026 - Premier League
12 Apr 2026 - Premier League
4 Apr 2026 - FA Cup
17 Mar 2026 - Champions League
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
9 May 2026 - Premier League
21 Apr 2026 - Premier League
21 Mar 2026 - Premier League
11 Mar 2026 - Champions League
7 Mar 2026 - FA Cup
4 Mar 2026 - Premier League
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
13 May 2026 - Premier League
9 May 2026 - Premier League
4 May 2026 - Premier League
25 Apr 2026 - FA Cup
22 Apr 2026 - Premier League
19 Apr 2026 - Premier League
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
13 May 2026 - Premier League
9 May 2026 - Premier League
25 Apr 2026 - FA Cup
19 Apr 2026 - Premier League
4 Apr 2026 - FA Cup
17 Mar 2026 - Champions League
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
4 May 2026 - Premier League
22 Apr 2026 - Premier League
12 Apr 2026 - Premier League
22 Mar 2026 - Carabao Cup
14 Mar 2026 - Premier League
11 Mar 2026 - Champions League
Chelsea vs Manchester City Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
0 %
17 %
83 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
12 Apr 2026 - Premier League
4 Jan 2026 - Premier League
25 Jan 2025 - Premier League
18 Aug 2024 - Premier League
3 Aug 2024 - Clubs Friendlies
20 Apr 2024 - FA Cup
Chelsea - Manchester City: Form Analysis
Manchester City warmed up for the FA Cup final with a vital 3-0 home win over Crystal Palace on Wednesday evening. That kept their Premier League title hopes alive and extended their unbeaten run to nine matches. They have scored at least twice in nine of their last ten games.
Like their opponents, the Citizens have scored 21 goals in five games to reach this FA Cup final. That includes a 10-1 home win over Exeter City in round three. Two Premier League sides have been beaten on the way to this Wembley showpiece.
They won 3-1 at Newcastle United in round five and then defeated Liverpool 4-0 at home in the quarter-finals. The last four saw them have to come from behind to defeat Championship side Southampton 2-1. City are unbeaten in their last 13 competitive games against Chelsea, most recently winning 3-0 away in April.
Can Chelsea qualify for Europe?
Chelsea have been struggling for form in recent months. Their draw at Liverpool last weekend ended a run of six straight league losses. They are ninth in the Premier League and may need to win the FA Cup to qualify for European football next season.
The Blues have only had to beat one Premier League side to reach this FA Cup final. That was a 1-0 win over Leeds United in the semi-finals. They needed extra time to get past Wrexham from the Championship in the fifth round.
Limited Offer. Currently at Stake
Chelsea against Manchester City Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Substitutes
F. Jorgensen
DefenderJ. Acheampong
T. Chalobah
T. Adarabioyo
MidfielderD. Essugo
A. Santos
ForwardP. Neto
L. Delap
A. Garnacho
G. Donnarumma
DefenderN. Ake
J. Stones
R. Dias
MidfielderM. Kovacic
T. Reijnders
R. Cherki
Savinho
P. Foden
Missing players
J. Derry
ForwardM. Mudryk
J. Gittens
Estevao
Chelsea & Manchester City Squad Analysis
Although they still have a chance of winning the Premier League, Manchester City made several changes for Wednesday's 3-0 win over Crystal Palace. Earling Haaland and Jeremy Doku both started on the bench but can be expected to start this FA Cup final.
Antoine Semenyo scored against Palace and has been a key player for the Blues since he joined them in January. Phil Foden has had a difficult season but he made two assists in Wednesday's win. Rodri remains a doubt after missing City's last five games.
Key players may return for Chelsea.
Chelsea will be without Estevao for this FA Cup final at Wembley. They have a doubt over the fitness of Robert Sanchez after his clash of heads in the recent game against Nottingham Forest. Both Pedro Neto and Alejandro Garnacho have missed Chelsea's last two games but are expected to play on Saturday.
A win for Chelsea will take them into European football next season. However, if they were to lose then that would free up another qualification position in the Premier League as City will be in the Champions League.
Chelsea - Manchester City Key Points
- Manchester City are unbeaten in their last nine matches.
- Manchester City are playing in their third successive FA Cup final.
- Chelsea have only won one of their last eight games against fellow Premier League sides.
- Manchester City have beaten two Premier League sides on their way to this final, Chelsea just one.
Limited Offer. Currently at Stake
Our Chelsea vs Manchester City Prediction
Manchester Cty stil have their eyes on a domestic treible this season. They take a weekend off from the Premier League to try and win the FA Cup for the first time since tthe 2022-season. They are the clear form pick for this cup final.
Chelsea still have an interim head coach and are down at ninth in the Premier League. They have an excellent FA Cup record but have lost their last four finals. Their recent record against City is poor. Our main Chelsea v Manchester City prediction is Manchester City wins.
Chelsea vs Manchester City Alternative Predictions
Erling Haaland scores
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Chelsea Manchester City
| Chelsea vs Manchester City | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea wins | 4.36 | 4.8 | +10.1% |
| Draw | 3.84 | 4.1 | +6.8% |
| Manchester City wins | 1.78 | 1.75 | -1.7% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Manchester City is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 1.7% since opening
- The probability of this result was 56.2% and is now 57.1% (1.0%)
Chelsea vs Manchester City - FAQs
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
