UFC - UFC Fight Night
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by Geoffrey Ejiga | in UFC Predictions
The main event of this highly anticipated UFC Fight Night card pits the lightweight division’s greatest finisher, Charles Oliveira, against the relentless Polish wrestler, Mateusz Gamrot. They have never clashed before, and this contest presents a classic grappler-vs-grappler dynamic, though one fighter is clearly more dangerous in all phases. See our best Oliveira vs Mateusz Gamrot match prediction below.
For the Brazilian legend, the pressure is immense, as he is coming off a brutal first-round knockout loss to Ilia Topuria in June 2025. This loss halted his momentum, but history is on his side as he has never suffered consecutive defeats in the lightweight division.
His opponent, Mateusz Gamrot the “Gamer”, enters the fight with solid momentum after a unanimous decision win over Ludovit Klein in May 2025, showcasing his ability to grind out wins. While Gamrot is an elite wrestler who averages over five takedowns per 15 minutes, diving for a takedown on Do Bronxs is one of the biggest risks in the sport.
Oliveira holds the record for most submissions in UFC history and only needs a split second of control to latch onto a limb or a neck. Gamrot's best path is to smother Oliveira, but given the Brazilian's superior reach and knockout power on the feet, we anticipate Oliveira will find the necessary opening for another signature finish.
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Charles Oliveira - Mateusz Gamrot Key Points
- Charles Oliveira holds the all-time UFC records for total finishes (20) and submissions (16).
- Oliveira maintains a massive 2.6 submission average per 15 minutes, far surpassing Gamrot's 0.1.
- Oliveira has a 4′′ reach advantage (74′′ vs 70′′), favoring his striking exchanges.
- Oliveira has never lost consecutive bouts in the lightweight division.
- Oliveira is unbeaten in his home country of Brazil since his UFC debut, and this is where their fight is taking place.
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Our Charles Oliveira vs Mateusz Gamrot Prediction
This fight is a true litmus test for Mateusz Gamrot’s championship aspirations, but he is facing the lightweight division's ultimate opportunist. While the Gamer has the wrestling credentials to control the action, that control comes with the immediate, ever-present danger of Do Bronxs threatening a finish from his guard.
Given Oliveira’s proven ability to end fights instantly, his significant reach advantage, and his historical resilience in rebounding from a loss, the odds are stacked against the Polish contender making it to the final bell. Hence, our Charles Oliveira vs Mateusz Gamrot match prediction is Charles Oliveira to win.
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