Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi Prediction & Betting Tips - ATP Japan Open
ATP - ATP Japan Open
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by Steve Ashfield | in Tennis Predictions
Carlos Alcaraz is attempting this week to win his first tournament since February. The Spaniard is the top seed in the outdoor hard court Japan Open in Tokyo. Round two sees him face unseeded Matteo Arnaldi and previous matches between the pair have led us to make a prediction of more than 18.5 games.
The winner will be up against either Denis Shapovalov or Alejandro Tabilo, both of whom are unseeded.
Alcaraz has had a season that has been hit by injuries. He's won two tournaments this year, both on this surface in the Australian Open and Doha.
He had a tough first round match, needing three sets to get past unseeded Alex Michelsen.
Five of his last seven best-of-three sets matches have seen more than 18.5 games played.
He leads Arnaldi 2-0 in previous meetings, both saw at least 19 games played, one going to a deciding set.
Matteo Arnaldi has been struggling for form in recent months. The Italian had lost five of his last six matches before this tournament got underway. The world number 37 (34 places below his opponent) has found some form in Tokyo with a come-from-behind win over Rei Sakamoto.
He has played more than 18.5 games in each of his last six completed matches.
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Carlos Alcaraz v Matteo Arnaldi Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|
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1.05 | 9.4 |
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1.05 | 12.1 |
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1.03 | 11.5 |
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1.03 | 11.5 |
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|
1.05 | 11 |
|
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Who will win the Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi Tennis game?
Our prediction for the Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi match is: more than 18.5 games.
The best winner predictions and betting odds for the Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi game on 02/10/2026 of the current ATP Japan Open season:
- Carlos Alcaraz has a 83.47% chance to win against Matteo Arnaldi according to Shangrila ⭐ with the odds of 1.06.
- Matteo Arnaldi has a 16.53% probability of winning facing Carlos Alcaraz ⭐ with odds of 12.1 at 1xbet.
Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi Best Prediction and Odds
Based on the bookmaker's betting lines in this match, Carlos Alcaraz has a 83.47 % chance to win.
| Prediction | Chance to win |
|---|---|
| Carlos Alcaraz | 83.47 % |
| Matteo Arnaldi | 16.53 % |
Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi Form
Carlos Alcaraz and Matteo Arnaldi Last Matches
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
1 Oct 2026 - ATP Japan Open
8 Sept 2026 - ATP US Open
6 Sept 2026 - ATP US Open
4 Sept 2026 - ATP US Open
2 Sept 2026 - ATP US Open
31 Aug 2026 - ATP US Open
2/6 (33%)
4/6 (67%)
30 Sept 2026 - ATP Japan Open
31 Aug 2026 - ATP US Open
15 Aug 2026 - ATP Cincinnati Open
7 Aug 2026 - ATP National Bank Open
5 Aug 2026 - ATP National Bank Open
16 Jul 2026 - ATP Umag Open
Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
100 %
0 %
8 Mar 2024 - ATP Indian Wells
4 Sept 2023 - ATP US Open
Carlos Alcaraz - Matteo Arnaldi Key Points
- Alcaraz has played more than 18.5 games in five of his last seven matches played over this format.
- The last match between these two players went to a deciding set with one tie-break played.
- The last six completed matches for Arnaldi have all seen him play more than 18.5 games.
- A 7-5 or 7-6 set would be good news for our prediction and Alcaraz has played at least one in two of his last three matches.
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Our Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi Prediction
Carlos Alcaraz has won both of his previous matches against Matteo Arnaldi. In the most recent one though, he didn't have it all his own way and had to come from a set down to win the match. He also had a tough three-setter in his opening match in this Japan Open.
Matteo Arnaldi has shown improved form in Tokyo this week after a run of five defeats in six matches. The Italian had to come from a set down to defeat Rei Sakamoto. Our Carlos Alcaraz v Matteo Arnaldi prediction is more than 18.5 games.
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It does not matter whether you bet on Carlos Alcaraz or Matteo Arnaldi, if your opponent has to retire from the match with an injury, you will get paid as a winner!
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
