Carlos Alcaraz vs Jiri Lehecka Prediction & Betting Tips - ATP Japan Open
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by Steve Ashfield | in Tennis Predictions
Top seed Carlos Alcaraz has never lost a match in the Japan Open. He won the title last year on his only other visit and in the 2026 final, he faces unseeded Jiri Lehecka. He's been struggling in opening sets though and our prediction is more than 9.5 games in set one.
Alcaraz last won a title in February, so he'll be keen to get back to winning ways here.
It's not been an easy week for him though, especially in the opening set of his matches. The first three he played here were all won via a tie-break. Then he took on Jaume Munar in the semi-final of this outdoor hard court tournament and he lost that 7-5 before battling back to win in three.
More than 9.5 games have been played in each of his last six matches in singles tournaments.Jiri Lehecka is in his second ATP Tour outdoor hard court final of the year. He also made it to this stage in the Miami Masters.
He made a slow start in this tournament with both of his opening matches going to three sets.
Since then, he's beaten Adolfo Daniel Vallejo and Valentin Vacherot in straight sets,
Ten games were played in the opening set of his last match.
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Carlos Alcaraz v Jiri Lehecka Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|
|
1.23 | 4.1 |
|
|
1.27 | 3.98 |
|
|
1.26 | 3.8 |
|
|
1.26 | 3.8 |
|
|
1.29 | 3.75 |
|
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Who will win the Carlos Alcaraz vs Jiri Lehecka Tennis game?
Our prediction for the Carlos Alcaraz vs Jiri Lehecka match is: more than 9.5 games in set one.
The best winner predictions and betting odds for the Carlos Alcaraz vs Jiri Lehecka game on 06/10/2026 of the current ATP Japan Open season:
- Carlos Alcaraz has a 67.21% chance to win against Jiri Lehecka according to Bet365 ⭐ with the odds of 1.29.
- Jiri Lehecka has a 32.79% probability of winning facing Carlos Alcaraz ⭐ with odds of 4.2 at Tonybet.
Carlos Alcaraz vs Jiri Lehecka Best Prediction and Odds
Based on the bookmaker's betting lines in this match, Carlos Alcaraz has a 67.21 % chance to win.
| Prediction | Chance to win |
|---|---|
| Carlos Alcaraz | 67.21 % |
| Jiri Lehecka | 32.79 % |
Carlos Alcaraz vs Jiri Lehecka Form
Carlos Alcaraz and Jiri Lehecka Last Matches
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
5 Oct 2026 - ATP Japan Open
3 Oct 2026 - ATP Japan Open
1 Oct 2026 - ATP Japan Open
8 Sept 2026 - ATP US Open
6 Sept 2026 - ATP US Open
4 Sept 2026 - ATP US Open
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
5 Oct 2026 - ATP Japan Open
4 Oct 2026 - ATP Japan Open
3 Oct 2026 - ATP Japan Open
29 Sept 2026 - ATP Japan Open
18 Sept 2026 - Davis Cup
4 Sept 2026 - ATP US Open
Carlos Alcaraz vs Jiri Lehecka Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
75 %
25 %
2 Sept 2025 - ATP US Open
22 Jun 2025 - ATP London - Queen's
20 Feb 2025 - ATP Qatar Open
22 Jun 2023 - ATP London - Queen's
Carlos Alcaraz - Jiri Lehecka Key Points
- Alcaraz leads Lehecka 3-1 in previous meetings. Both of the last two saw at least ten games played in the opening set.
- The four opening sets that Alcaraz has played in this tournament have seen 51 games played.
- Lehecka played ten games in the opening set of his semi-final.
- Alcaraz has played either a 7-5 or 7-6 opening set in five of his last six matches in singles tournaments.
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Our Carlos Alcaraz vs Jiri Lehecka Prediction
Carlos Alcaraz has continued his winning run in Tokyo. The defending champion has again reached the final of this ATP 500 tournament, but it's been a bit of a struggle for him in the opening set of each of the four matches that he has won with three tie-breaks and a 7-5 in the last four.
He takes on Jiri Lehecka in the final. His opponent has had some good wins this week, especially in the last two rounds and will give Alcaraz a battle. Therefore our Carlos Alcaraz v Jiri Lehecka prediction is more than 9.5 games in set one.
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
