Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov Prediction & Betting Tips - ATP Japan Open

Prediction published on 03/10/2026, 13:10  by Steve Ashfield | Modified on 03/10/2026 at 14:10 in Tennis Predictions

The last eight of the outdoor hard court China Open will see top seed Carlos Alcaraz take on unseeded Denis Shapovalov. Not surprisingly, Alcaraz is the hot favorite to win this match. However, he's not had it all his own way in Tokyo and our prediction is more than 18.5 games.

For the winner, there's a semi-final against either qualifier Jaume Munar or unseeded Kyrian Jacquet.

Carlos Alcaraz has won two tournaments in 2026 and both were on outdoor hard courts. He hasn't won a title since Doha in February.

Round one of this tournament saw him require three sets to beat Alex Michelsen.

He then defeated Matteo Arnaldi but as in his first round match, the Spaniard had to play a tie-break.

He's played more than 18.5 games in six of his last eight best-of-three sets matches.

Denis Shapovalov is ranked 46th and that's 43 places below Alcaraz.

The Canadian has shown some good form in recent months. The final was reached in Los Cabos and the last four in the Chengdu Open, both played on this surface.

This week has seen him Sho Shimabukuro in straight sets, and then Alejandro Tabilo in three. Both saw more than 18.5 games played in them.

He's played at least 19 games in six of his last seven matches played over this length.