Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverev Prediction & Betting Tips - ATP Australian Open
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by Steve Ashfield | in ATP Australian Open Predictions
Top seed Carlos Alcaraz is playing in his first Australian Open semi-final. He takes on third-seeded Alexander Zverev who is attempting to reach a second successive Melbourne final. Time for our match prediction.
Carlos Alcaraz has made it to the semi-finals of this outdoor hard court tournament without losing a set. He’s already defeated three seeds, most recently sixth seed Alex de Minaur. He only lost eight games against the Australian, five in the first set.
Three of his five matches in this tournament have seen more than 9.5 games played in set one.
This is the 13th match between these two players and it’s 6-6. On this surface, Alcaraz has a 3-2 lead winning the last two.
Last year saw Alexander Zverev lose to Jannik Sinner in the Australian Open final. The German is still waiting to win his first Grand Slam title.
Zverev has lost a set in four of his five matches on the road to this semi-final. Only Francisco Cerundolo has been beaten in straight sets. The quarter-finals saw him beat Learner Tien in four sets.
His last two matches against Alcaraz both saw more than 9.5 games played in the opening set.
We tip there to be an opening set with at least ten games played.
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Carlos Alcaraz v Alexander Zverev Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|
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1.14 | 5.5 |
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1.14 | 5.5 |
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1.14 | 5.5 |
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1.16 | 4.6 |
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1.15 | 4.9 |
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Who will win the Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverev Tennis game?
Our prediction for the Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverev match is: more than 9.5 games in set one.
The best winner predictions and betting odds for the Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverev game on 29/01/2026 of the current ATP Australian Open season:
- Carlos Alcaraz has a 67.23% chance to win against Alexander Zverev according to Betway ⭐ with the odds of 1.18.
- Alexander Zverev has a 32.77% probability of winning facing Carlos Alcaraz ⭐ with odds of 5.6 at Tonybet.
Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverev Best Prediction and Odds
Based on the bookmaker's betting lines in this match, Carlos Alcaraz has a 67.23 % chance to win.
| Prediction | Chance to win |
|---|---|
| Carlos Alcaraz | 67.23 % |
| Alexander Zverev | 32.77 % |
Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverev Form
Carlos Alcaraz and Alexander Zverev Last Matches
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
27 Jan 2026 - ATP Australian Open
24 Jan 2026 - ATP Australian Open
22 Jan 2026 - ATP Australian Open
20 Jan 2026 - ATP Australian Open
18 Jan 2026 - ATP Australian Open
16 Nov 2025 - ATP London - Queen's
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
26 Jan 2026 - ATP Australian Open
25 Jan 2026 - ATP Australian Open
23 Jan 2026 - ATP Australian Open
21 Jan 2026 - ATP Australian Open
17 Jan 2026 - ATP Australian Open
5 Jan 2026 - United Cup
Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverev Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
50 %
50 %
16 Aug 2025 - ATP Cincinnati Open
15 Nov 2024 - ATP Finals
9 Jun 2024 - ATP French Open
14 Mar 2024 - ATP Indian Wells
24 Jan 2024 - ATP Australian Open
13 Nov 2023 - ATP Finals
Carlos Alcaraz - Alexander Zverev Key Points
- More than 9.5 games have been played in three of the five matches Alcaraz has played in this tournament.
- The last two matches between Alcaraz and Zverev both saw more than 9.5 games played in the first set.
- Six of the last seven matches Alcaraz played in 2025 had more than 9.5 games played in set one.
- More than 9.5 games were played in four of the last six sets Zverev has played in this tournament.
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Our Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverev Prediction
Could we see another Alcaraz v Sinner final? If we do, it’ll be the first time ever in this Grand Slam. Alcaraz has finally made it to the last four in Melbourne and faces a tough match against Alexander Zverev.
His German opponent was the losing finalist here last year. He’s in good form but we feel unlikely to defeat Alcaraz but we could see some closely fought sets. Our main Carlos Alcaraz v Alexander Zverev prediction is more than 9.5 games in set one.
Get a retirement guarantee for the Carlos Alcaraz vs. Alexander Zverev game!
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It does not matter whether you bet on Carlos Alcaraz or Alexander Zverev, if your opponent has to retire from the match with an injury, you will get paid as a winner!
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
