Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex De Minaur Prediction & Betting Tips - ATP Australian Open
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by Steve Ashfield | in ATP Australian Open Predictions
Carlos Alcaraz may be the top seed but he’s never made it to the semi-finals of the Australian Open. He hopes to do that for the first time with a quarter-final win over sixth seed Alex de Minaur. Time for us to predict this match.
The semi-final opponent in this outdoor hard court Grand Slam will be either third seed Alexander Zverev or 25th seed Learner Tien.
The Spaniard has been in excellent form so far in what is his first tournament of the year. All four of his matches have been won without a set being lost. Two seeds have been beaten by him, most recently 19th-seeded Tommy Paul.
To reach the last four in his home Grand Slam, Alex de Minaur must achieve a first ever win over Carlos Alcaraz. The Australian has lost all five of their previous meetings Three of his last four defeats came in straight sets Two were played on hard courts but indoors.
De Minaur is playing in his second Australian Open (the other was last year) but has never reached a Grand Slam semi-final. So far in this tournament, de Minaur has only lost one set (to Hamad Medjedovic) and beat tenth-seeded Alexander Bublik in round four.
We tip Alcaraz to win in straight sets.
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Carlos Alcaraz v Alex De Minaur Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|
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1.17 | 5 |
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|
1.13 | 6 |
|
|
1.14 | 5.5 |
|
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1.13 | 5 |
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1.14 | 5.2 |
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Who will win the Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex De Minaur Tennis game?
Our prediction for the Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex De Minaur match is: Carlos Alcaraz wins in straight sets
The best winner predictions and betting odds for the Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex De Minaur game on 27/01/2026 of the current ATP Australian Open season:
- Carlos Alcaraz has a 73.76% chance to win against Alex De Minaur according to Melbet ⭐ with the odds of 1.17.
- Alex De Minaur has a 26.24% probability of winning facing Carlos Alcaraz ⭐ with odds of 6 at Betwinner.
Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex De Minaur Best Prediction and Odds
Based on the bookmaker's betting lines in this match, Carlos Alcaraz has a 73.76 % chance to win.
| Prediction | Chance to win |
|---|---|
| Carlos Alcaraz | 73.76 % |
| Alex De Minaur | 26.24 % |
Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex De Minaur Form
Carlos Alcaraz and Alex De Minaur Last Matches
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
24 Jan 2026 - ATP Australian Open
22 Jan 2026 - ATP Australian Open
20 Jan 2026 - ATP Australian Open
18 Jan 2026 - ATP Australian Open
16 Nov 2025 - ATP London - Queen's
15 Nov 2025 - ATP London - Queen's
6/6 (100%)
0/6 (0%)
25 Jan 2026 - ATP Australian Open
23 Jan 2026 - ATP Australian Open
21 Jan 2026 - ATP Australian Open
18 Jan 2026 - ATP Australian Open
9 Jan 2026 - United Cup
6 Jan 2026 - United Cup
Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex De Minaur Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
100 %
0 %
9 Nov 2025 - ATP Finals
18 Apr 2025 - ATP Barcelona
9 Feb 2025 - ATP Rotterdam
25 Jun 2023 - ATP London - Queen's
Carlos Alcaraz - Alex De Minaur Key Points
- Alcaraz has won all five of his previous matches against de Minaur.
- Three of the last four wins were in straight sets.
- Alcaraz is yet to drop a set in this tournament.
- Alcaraz has won his last 22 outdoor hard court matches.
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Our Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex De Minaur Prediction
Both players are hoping to reach their first Australian Open quarter-final. Carlos Alcaraz hasn’t lost an outdoor hard court match in ten months. All five of his previous matches against his Australian opponent have been won.
Alex de Minaur is playing in his seventh Grand Slam quarter-final but is yet to win one. He also lost seven quarter-finals in 2025. Only one set has been lost so far in this tournament but our Carlos Alcaraz v Alex de Minaur prediction is Carlos Alcaraz wins in straight sets.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
