Burnley vs Aston Villa Prediction & Betting Tips - Premier League
England - Premier League
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by Devesh Jaganath | in Premier League Predictions
Championship-bound Burnley host Champions League-chasing Aston Villa at Turf Moor in the Premier League on Sunday afternoon. The Clarets (19th) have not won a match in any competition for almost three months, and our prediction is that they will struggle to break that run in this one against the Villans (6th), who will be in high spirits this weekend.
With three games to go before returning to the Championship, winless since mid-February, and currently without a permanent manager, the next few weeks will feel like a lifetime for Burnley fans. Losing comprehensively at Elland Road last time out was a bitter pill to swallow, but it could get worse as the Clarets could go bottom of the table with another loss this weekend.
It was clear after the defeat to Spurs last week that Unai Emery had put all his eggs in the Europa League basket. However, it is a gamble that has paid off so far, as the Lions booked their place in the UEL final on Thursday, and three points here could guarantee them a spot in next season’s Champions League, regardless of the outcome against Freiburg on May 20.
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Burnley v Aston Villa Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.6 | 4.2 | 1.6 |
|
|
5.7 | 4.2 | 1.56 |
|
|
5.6 | 4.2 | 1.57 |
|
|
5.25 | 3.9 | 1.62 |
|
|
5.4 | 4.1 | 1.58 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Burnley and Aston Villa?
Our prediction for the Burnley vs Aston Villa match is: Aston Villa wins.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 10/05/2026 between Burnley and Aston Villa in Premier League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 25.04% for a win of Burnley against Aston Villa with odds of 5.84 at 888Starz.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Burnley vs Aston Villa is 16.52% with odds of 4.37 at 888Starz.
- Our prediction model gives a 58.44% chance ⭐ for a win of Aston Villa vs Burnley with odds of 1.63 at 888Starz.
Burnley - Aston Villa Prediction and Best Odds:
| Burnley Aston Villa Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa wins | 58.44% | 1.63 at 888Starz |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.01% | 2 at Stake |
| Both Team To Score | 60.42% | |
| Half-time / Full-time: Aston Villa/Aston Villa | 27.36% | 2.5 at Bet365 |
Burnley vs Aston Villa Form
Burnley and Aston Villa's standings in the Premier League
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4
|
65 | 38 | 19 | 8 | 11 | +7 |
|
19
|
22 | 38 | 4 | 10 | 24 | -37 |
Burnley and Aston Villa Last Matches
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
5/6 (83%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
1 May 2026 - Premier League
22 Apr 2026 - Premier League
19 Apr 2026 - Premier League
12 Apr 2026 - U21 Premier League Cup
11 Apr 2026 - Premier League
23 Mar 2026 - U21 Premier League Cup
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
5/6 (83%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
22 Apr 2026 - Premier League
12 Apr 2026 - U21 Premier League Cup
11 Apr 2026 - Premier League
16 Mar 2026 - U21 Premier League Cup
14 Mar 2026 - Premier League
28 Feb 2026 - Premier League
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
1 May 2026 - Premier League
19 Apr 2026 - Premier League
23 Mar 2026 - U21 Premier League Cup
21 Mar 2026 - Premier League
9 Mar 2026 - U21 Premier League Cup
3 Mar 2026 - Premier League
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
7 May 2026 - Europa League
3 May 2026 - Premier League
30 Apr 2026 - Europa League
25 Apr 2026 - Premier League
19 Apr 2026 - Premier League
16 Apr 2026 - Europa League
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
7 May 2026 - Europa League
3 May 2026 - Premier League
19 Apr 2026 - Premier League
16 Apr 2026 - Europa League
22 Mar 2026 - Premier League
19 Mar 2026 - Europa League
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
30 Apr 2026 - Europa League
25 Apr 2026 - Premier League
12 Apr 2026 - Premier League
9 Apr 2026 - Europa League
27 Mar 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
15 Mar 2026 - Premier League
Burnley vs Aston Villa Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
17 %
17 %
67 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
5 Oct 2025 - Premier League
30 Dec 2023 - Premier League
27 Aug 2023 - Premier League
19 May 2022 - Premier League
7 May 2022 - Premier League
27 Jan 2021 - Premier League
Burnley - Aston Villa: Form Analysis
Burnley suffered a 3-1 defeat to Leeds United on the road last weekend, marking their fifth straight loss in the Premier League and 10th match without victory across all competitions (D2 L8).
With that result, the Clarets have now conceded two or more goals in six of their last eight league matches and have shipped 71 goals this season - eight more than any other team in the top flight.
The hosts are also winless in their last 13 home league games since October last year (D3 L10) and have only won one of their last six EPL matches against their upcoming opponent at Turf Moor.
Aston Villa are six points behind Liverpool with three EPL games left!
Meanwhile, Aston Villa were unable to cut the deficit to fifth-placed Liverpool last week after suffering an against-the-odds 2-1 defeat to relegation candidates Tottenham Hotspur at home.
The Villans bounced back spectacularly, though, overturning a 1-0 deficit by beating Nottingham Forest 4-0 in the second leg of their Europa League semi-final tie on Thursday night at Villa Park.
The Lions will now hope to carry that momentum on the road, where they have been struggling of late, now winless in their last five Prem away games dating back to January 25 against Newcastle.
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Burnley against Aston Villa Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Substitutes
M. Dubravka
DefenderB. Humphreys
Q. Hartman
MidfielderJ. Ward Prowse
J. Laurent
J. Bruun Larsen
A. Broja
L. Foster
Z. Amdouni
M. Bizot
DefenderP. Torres
L. Digne
E. Buendia
Douglas Luiz
L. Bogarde
L. Bailey
J. Sancho
T. Abraham
Missing players
C. Roberts
J. Beyer
MidfielderJ. Cullen
B. Kamara
A. Onana
ForwardAlysson
Burnley & Aston Villa Squad Analysis
In just his second league start since the team exited the FA Cup against Mansfield in February, Loum Tchaouna scored Burnley’s consolation at Elland Road last week and should get the nod from the off in this one.
Zian Flemming is a goal away from reaching double digits for the season, but it is worth noting that eight of the Dutch forward’s nine goals in the top flight this season have come away from Turf Moor.
Axel Tuanzebe is close to returning to action from an Achilles injury, but this match has likely come too soon for him. Josh Cullen, Connor Robers and Jordan Beyer are also ruled out for the hosts this week.
Ollie Watkins has four goal contributions in his last five matches against Burnley!
The England international opened the scoring against Forest on Thursday and notched up an assist for their third of the night. However, there is a chance that Emery may rest him here, which would see Tammy Abraham brought in to lead the line.
Emiliano Buendia has recorded five goal contributions off the bench for Villa this season, but he was one of their standout performers in the last match (1 goal, 1 assist), and should feature from the first whistle this weekend.
Skipper John McGinn is another who may be rested for this match, while Boubacar Kamara, Amadou Onana and Alysson are sidelined through injury for the visitors.
Most goals and assists
Burnley
Aston Villa
Z. Flemming
(11 Goals)
O. Watkins
(16 Goals)
Q. Hartman
(5 Assists)
L. Digne
(6 Assists)
,
M. Rogers
(6 Assists)
Burnley - Aston Villa Key Points
- Burnley are on a five-match losing streak.
- Burnley have conceded the most goals in the Premier League this season.
- Burnley have conceded the most goals in the Premier League this season.
- Burnley have only won one of their last five home matches against Villa.
- Aston Villa are unbeaten in their last five matches against Burnley (home or away).
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Our Burnley vs Aston Villa Prediction
Burnley are playing their final matches of the season as a formality and for nothing but pride, but given their recent record and with Arsenal to come next week, the final days of this campaign could bring them further pain.
Villa’s gamble to prioritise the Europa League semis paid off on Thursday. This now presents the perfect opportunity for them to get back to winning ways in the Premier League and possibly secure their Champions League qualification before their European final. Our Burnley vs Aston Villa prediction is Aston Villa wins.
Burnley vs Aston Villa Alternative Predictions
More than 2.5 goals
Burnley have conceded the most league goals this season, while Villa have only kept one clean sheet in their last eight away games in all competitions. Additionally, each of the last four matches between these sides ended with three or more goals scored.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Burnley Aston Villa
| Burnley vs Aston Villa | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley wins | 5.25 | 5.84 | +11.2% |
| Draw | 4.43 | 4.37 | -1.4% |
| Aston Villa wins | 1.67 | 1.63 | -2.4% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Aston Villa is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 2.4% since opening
- The probability of this result was 59.9% and is now 61.3% (1.5%)
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
