Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz Prediction & Betting Tips - Europa League
Europe - Europa League
New customers only | Commercial content | 18+ age limit | T&Cs apply
by Joseph King | in Europa League Predictions
The league phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Europa League enters its second matchday with 10th-place Bournemouth hosting 17th-placed Sturm Graz. Injuries to both the Cherries and Die Schwoazn, along with some modest underlying attacking statistics, have us backing a lower-scoring match for our prediction.
Bournemouth announced themselves on the European stage in emphatic fashion, defeating Spanish Copa del Rey holders Real Sociedad 2-1 in San Sebastian in the first round of fixtures. It marked not only the first ever goal in continental competition for the Cherries, but their first victory as well. They now return to the Vitality Stadium with a golden opportunity to make it six points from six as they come in as big favourites over Sturm Graz.
The visitors, on the other hand, have been no strangers to European competition in recent seasons. The 2023-24 and 2024-25 Austrian Bundesliga champions have now played in the Champions League or Europa League in six straight seasons, although they have reached the knockout rounds just once in that spell, via the Conference League in 2023-24.
Limited Offer. Currently at Stake
Bournemouth v Sturm Graz Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.17 | 7.60 | 13.00 |
|
|
1.21 | 7.50 | 13.60 |
|
|
1.19 | 7.30 | 13.00 |
|
|
1.19 | 7.30 | 13.00 |
|
|
1.19 | 7.40 | 13.00 |
|
Pre-register for our Member Area: win €500!
What is the prediction for the football match between Bournemouth and Sturm Graz?
Our prediction for the Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz match is: under 3.5.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 15/10/2026 between Bournemouth and Sturm Graz in Europa League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 53.17% for a win of Bournemouth against Sturm Graz with odds of 1.21 at 1xbet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz is 19.43% with odds of 7.8 at Tonybet.
- Our prediction model gives a 27.4% chance ⭐ for a win of Sturm Graz vs Bournemouth with odds of 15 at Bet365.
Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz Form
Bournemouth and Sturm Graz's standings in the Europa League
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
10
|
3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 |
|
17
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bournemouth and Sturm Graz Last Matches
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
10 Oct 2026 - Premier League
20 Sept 2026 - Premier League
17 Sept 2026 - Europa League
12 Sept 2026 - Premier League
8 Sept 2026 - Carabao Cup
5 Sept 2026 - Premier League
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
20 Sept 2026 - Premier League
12 Sept 2026 - Premier League
8 Sept 2026 - Carabao Cup
29 Aug 2026 - Premier League
4 Aug 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
30 Jul 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
10 Oct 2026 - Premier League
17 Sept 2026 - Europa League
5 Sept 2026 - Premier League
23 Aug 2026 - Premier League
15 Aug 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
8 Aug 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
10 Oct 2026 - Austrian Bundesliga
20 Sept 2026 - Austrian Bundesliga
16 Sept 2026 - Europa League
13 Sept 2026 - Austrian Bundesliga
5 Sept 2026 - ÖFB Cup
30 Aug 2026 - Austrian Bundesliga
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
16 Sept 2026 - Europa League
13 Sept 2026 - Austrian Bundesliga
22 Aug 2026 - Austrian Bundesliga
15 Aug 2026 - Austrian Bundesliga
11 Aug 2026 - Champions League
21 Jul 2026 - Champions League
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
10 Oct 2026 - Austrian Bundesliga
20 Sept 2026 - Austrian Bundesliga
5 Sept 2026 - ÖFB Cup
30 Aug 2026 - Austrian Bundesliga
8 Aug 2026 - Austrian Bundesliga
5 Aug 2026 - Champions League
Bournemouth - Sturm Graz: Form Analysis
Bournemouth come into this fixture off the back of a 5-1 humbling away to Chelsea, which saw them concede twice in the opening three minutes of the match. While they deserved to lose, Bournemouth were perhaps a bit unlucky with just how emphatic the final scoreline was in Saturday’s contest.
The Cherries produced more xG than the Blues (1.38 to 1.10), but Chelsea were ruthless with their chances, benefited from a deflection and watched goalkeeper Djordje Petrovic endure one of his worst games in a Bournemouth shirt.
It extended Bournemouth’s winless run to start the Premier League campaign to six matches (three draws, three losses), but fans will take encouragement from the team’s promising start to the UEL campaign.
Bournemouth’s 2-1 away win over Real Sociedad was a historic result for the club.
It’s been a mixed start for Sturm Graz. With four wins, two draws and two defeats, they sit seven points behind leaders Rapid Wien in the Austrian Bundesliga. Major injuries in attack have left Die Schwoazn misfiring: their 10 league goals are the fewest among the top six sides, and they were held scoreless in a 0-0 home draw with Rennes on matchday one.
Sturm were fortunate to get a point in that fixture, as they spent large spells under heavy pressure. A 2-0 away win over Austria Wien in their last match was only their third win in their last seven across all competitions.
Limited Offer. Currently at Stake
Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz last Lineups
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Substitutes
M. Di Gregorio
DefenderJuanlu
J. Soler
B. Diakite
MidfielderA. Toth
L. Cook
ForwardD. Jebbison
A. Rodriguez
B. Gannon-Doak
A. Helac
DefenderN. Geyrhofer
G. Haider
P. Petrovic
MidfielderJ. Halwachs
A. Kayombo
B. Beganovic
ForwardS. Wlodarczyk
Missing players
J. Araujo
MidfielderJ. Kluivert
A. Scott
V. Milosavljevic
ForwardA. Adli
E. Kroupi
Bournemouth & Sturm Graz Squad Analysis
Marco Rose will be unable to call upon a host of important players. The brilliant Alex Scott will his second consecutive match after a thigh injury on England duty, while Justin Kluivert is still a few weeks away from a return. Eli Junior Kroupi and Amine Adli are also unavailable, as are defenders Milosavljevic and Julian Araujo.
Rayan and Tavernier will be the players who draw the most attention from the Sturm defenders. Rayan scored in Bournemouth’s win over Real Sociedad, while Tavernier has started the PL strongly with three goals in six appearances.
Sturm Graz manager Fabio Ingolitsch is dealing with some key injuries as well.
The team’s primary playmaker, Otar Kiteishvili, was injured during the international break.
Considering Kiteishvili contributed a combined 39 goals and assists in 83 appearances over the last two seasons across all competitions, Sturm will sorely miss their number 10’s influence in the final third.
They’re also without Mainz loanee Nelson Weiper, who was signed to be the team’s leading number nine, and Seedy Jatta. In their absences, we’ll likely see Oumar Diakite continue up top. The 22-year-old has started his Sturm career well after making a loan move over from Reims. Diakite led the line against Austria Wien in Sturm’s last match, netting a brace in a 2-0 away win for his side.
Bournemouth and Sturm Graz Stats in Europa League
Bournemouth - Sturm Graz Key Points
- There have been under 3.5 goals scored in Sturm’s last four outings.
- Neither side created much in their Europa League openers: 0.74 xG for Bournemouth and 0.73 for Sturm.
- In the PL, Bournemouth rank 15th in xG (8.10) and 4th in xGA (8.00).
- Sturm have seen an average of 2.11 total goals per game in their nine league + UEL matches this season.
- Both teams are missing key attacking players for this clash.
Limited Offer. Currently at Stake
Our Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz Prediction
Bournemouth come into this one as heavy favourites, but there are reasons to expect a lower-scoring night. Their own attack has created just 8.1 xG in six league games, and they are without key pieces, including Alex Scott, who provides vital progressive passing and ball-carrying from midfield.
Sturm have their own lengthy injury list, headlined by playmaker Otar Kiteishvili, and are struggling for offensive rhythm. An away trip to a Premier League side is the last thing they need right now. Our Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz prediction: under 3.5 goals.
Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz Alternative Predictions
Bournemouth wins
This will be a big ask for Sturm Graz to get a result, but we believe they are simply too shorthanded and have not been consistent enough to pull it off. Premier League outfits have proven the clear quality gap that exists between them and other European sides in the Europa and Conference League in recent seasons, and we should see more of the same here.
Marcus Tavernier to score or assist
Use £/€50 free bets for the Bournemouth vs. Sturm Graz game!
Are you planning to bet on the upcoming match between Bournemouth and Sturm Graz? Why not take advantage of the free bets from Bet365? Use our promo code STYVIP1 and open your account. Bet365 offers a welcome package of €/£50 free bet credits if you bet €/£10 as a new player.
Try your luck on this year's Europa League! You need to make your qualifying bet of €/£10 within 30 days of opening an account and this can be on any sport with at least one selection priced at 1.2 (1/5) or bigger.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
