Benfica Lisbon vs Real Madrid Prediction & Betting Tips - Champions League
Europe - Champions League
New customers only | Commercial content | 18+ age limit | T&Cs apply
by Ita Emmanuel | in Champions League Predictions
Real Madrid will round up their 2025–26 Champions League league-phase action, traveling to face Portuguese giants Benfica on Wednesday. They are third in the standings with 15 points, while Benfica is a distant 29th with just six points. Can Los Blancos seal their place in the round of 16 with a win against the Eagles? Here is our prediction.
An emphatic victory over Monaco last week saw Real Madrid seal their place in the Champions League knockout rounds. However, it's not yet finished business for Los Merengues as they need a win in this final round to secure an automatic ticket to the round of 16. They have been dominant against Portuguese clubs, winning eight of their last 10 meetings and drawing two.
Benfica walk a fine line between hope and disappointment heading into this final round of matches. Marooned at 29th in the standings with six points, they sit two points out of the playoff places and will require nothing short of a miracle to qualify for the next round. Can they secure an unlikely victory against competition heavyweights Real Madrid to boost their chances? Continue reading as we analyze deeper.
Limited Offer. Currently at Stake
Benfica Lisbon v Real Madrid Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.1 | 4.2 | 1.8 |
|
|
4.38 | 4.22 | 1.7 |
|
|
4.06 | 4.06 | 1.78 |
|
|
4.1 | 4.2 | 1.73 |
|
|
4 | 4.1 | 1.79 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Benfica Lisbon and Real Madrid?
Our prediction for the Benfica Lisbon vs Real Madrid match is: Real Madrid wins.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 28/01/2026 between Benfica Lisbon and Real Madrid in Champions League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 40.09% for a win of Benfica Lisbon against Real Madrid with odds of 4.38 at Melbet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Benfica Lisbon vs Real Madrid is 10.8% with odds of 4.3 at Tonybet.
- Our prediction model gives a 49.11% chance ⭐ for a win of Real Madrid vs Benfica Lisbon with odds of 1.85 at 888Starz.
Benfica Lisbon - Real Madrid Prediction and Best Odds:
| Benfica Lisbon Real Madrid Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid wins | 49.11% | 1.85 at 888Starz |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.07% | |
| Both Team To Score | 61.9% | |
| Half-time / Full-time: Real Madrid/Real Madrid | 18.05% | 2.63 at Bet365 |
Benfica Lisbon vs Real Madrid Form
Benfica Lisbon and Real Madrid's standings in the Champions League
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
9
|
15 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | +9 |
|
24
|
9 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -2 |
Benfica Lisbon and Real Madrid Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
25 Jan 2026 - Liga Portugal
21 Jan 2026 - Champions League
17 Jan 2026 - Liga Portugal
14 Jan 2026 - Taca de Portugal
7 Jan 2026 - Portugal League Cup
3 Jan 2026 - Liga Portugal
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
25 Jan 2026 - Liga Portugal
7 Jan 2026 - Portugal League Cup
3 Jan 2026 - Liga Portugal
22 Dec 2025 - Liga Portugal
10 Dec 2025 - Champions League
5 Dec 2025 - Liga Portugal
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
21 Jan 2026 - Champions League
17 Jan 2026 - Liga Portugal
14 Jan 2026 - Taca de Portugal
28 Dec 2025 - Liga Portugal
17 Dec 2025 - Taca de Portugal
14 Dec 2025 - Liga Portugal
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
24 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
20 Jan 2026 - Champions League
17 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
14 Jan 2026 - Copa del Rey
11 Jan 2026 - Spanish Super Cup
8 Jan 2026 - Spanish Super Cup
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
20 Jan 2026 - Champions League
17 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
4 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
20 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
10 Dec 2025 - Champions League
7 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
24 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
14 Jan 2026 - Copa del Rey
11 Jan 2026 - Spanish Super Cup
8 Jan 2026 - Spanish Super Cup
17 Dec 2025 - Copa del Rey
14 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
Benfica Lisbon - Real Madrid: Form Analysis
Benfica have fallen short of expectations both in their domestic and European campaign this season. Despite going unbeaten in their 19 Primeira Liga matches this season, they sit a distant third in the standings with 45 points – 10 points adrift of league leaders FC Porto.
Jose Mourinho’s men demolished Estrela 4–0 over the weekend in the Portuguese elite division, but have lost three of their last five matches overall. This includes a 2–0 away loss to Juventus in their last UCL outing and back-to-back defeats and elimination from both of Portugal’s domestic cup competitions.
After defeat to Barcelona in the Spanish Super Cup final and a shock Copa Del Rey round-16 loss to Albacete nearly derailed their season, interim manager Álvaro Arbeloa seems to have gotten Real Madrid back on track. They defeated Villarreal 2–0 over the weekend to stay firm in the race for the La Liga title and also extend their winning streak to three matches.
Real Madrid’s 6–1 victory over Monaco is among the three biggest wins in the Champions League league phase this season
This includes a 6–1 demolition of French side Monaco in their last Champions League outing. Overall, the Kings of Europe have won five of their seven 2025–26 Champions League matches, including two of their three away outings in the competition.
Limited Offer. Currently at Stake
Benfica Lisbon against Real Madrid Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Substitutes
D. Ferreira
DefenderD. Banjaqui
A. Silva
J. Neto
G. Oliveira
MidfielderF. Ivanovic
E. Barrenechea
M. Silva
D. Prioste
ForwardJ. Rego
A. Cabral
Bruma
F. Gonzalez
A. Lunin
DefenderD. Aguado
D. Alaba
D. Carvajal
F. Garcia
MidfielderE. Camavinga
J. Cestero
D. Ceballos
ForwardG. Garcia
Rodrygo
B. Diaz
Missing players
A. Ruediger
T. Alexander-Arnold
F. Mendy
E. Militao
Benfica Lisbon & Real Madrid Squad Analysis
Jose Mourinho will parade a significantly depleted Benfica side on Wednesday due to injuries and fitness concerns to key players. First-choice right-back Alexander Bah is out with a knee injury and his absence will affect the team's stability at the back and attacking threat on the right.
The Reds are also likely to be vulnerable in the central areas against Real Madrid with prolific box-to-box midfielder Richard Rios still sidelined with a shoulder injury. Meanwhile, Los Blancos will have to watch out for their red-hot forward Vangelis Pavlidis, who has scored six goals in his last six matches for the team.
Defender Nicolas Otamendi will make his 100th Champions League appearance on Wednesday, becoming just the third Argentine to do so after Lionel Messi and Angel Di Maria.
Trent Alexander Arnold is yet to return to the Real Madrid squad due to his thigh injury, and Federico Valverde has proven an able stand-in at the right-back. Antonio Rudiger and Eder Militao’s absence has nearly gone unnoticed with Dean Huijsen and Raúl Asencio efficiently covering the center-back positions.
Kylian Mbappe remains a key player to watch with five goals in his last three matches for Real Madrid. The French attacking sensation returns to the Vikings' attack on Wednesday as the leading scorer in La Liga (21 goals) and in the Champions League (11 goals) this season.
Most goals and assists
Benfica Lisbon
Real Madrid
V. Pavlidis
(2 Goals)
, 
L. Barreiro
(2 Goals)
, 
A. Schjelderup
(2 Goals)
K. Mbappe
(15 Goals)
G. Sudakov
(2 Assists)
,
V. Pavlidis
(2 Assists)
Vinicius Junior
(6 Assists)
Benfica Lisbon - Real Madrid Key Points
- Benfica have lost five of their seven Champions League league-phase matches this season.
- Benfica have lost three of their last five matches in all competitions.
- Real Madrid have won five of their seven Champions League league-phase matches this season.
- Real Madrid have won their last three matches in all competitions.
Limited Offer. Currently at Stake
Our Benfica Lisbon vs Real Madrid Prediction
Alvaro Arbeloa has gotten Real Madrid back into gear after their two-match slump. They will look to build on that recent resurgence with a much-needed Champions League victory on Wednesday for an automatic qualification to the round of 16.
Riding a three-match winning streak, the 15-time UCL champions are the clear favourites, taking on a Benfica side, who have lost five of their seven Champions League matches and struggling for results lately. Our Benfica vs Real Madrid prediction is Real Madrid wins.
Benfica Lisbon vs Real Madrid Alternative Predictions
Kylian Mbappe to score
Kylian Mbappe has shown no signs of slowing down with his goal-scoring heroics. He has racked up a competition-leading 11 goals in the Champions League this season and has found the net in his last three matches for the European giants.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Benfica Lisbon Real Madrid
| Benfica Lisbon vs Real Madrid | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Benfica Lisbon wins | 6.7 | 4.38 | -34.6% |
| Draw | 4.06 | 4.3 | +5.9% |
| Real Madrid wins | 1.52 | 1.85 | +21.7% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Real Madrid is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 21.7% since opening
- The probability of this result was 65.8% and is now 54.1% (-11.7%)
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
