Bayer Leverkusen vs Hamburg Prediction & Betting Tips - Bundesliga
Germany - Bundesliga
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by Sridhar Bhamidi | in Bundesliga Predictions
Bayer Leverkusen need to win big to cling on to their slim hopes of finishing in the top four of the 2025-26 Bundesliga campaign, which they will complete at home against Hamburg, who have already confirmed safety. This match on Saturday in Leverkusen between the 6th-placed ‘Factory XI’ and the 11th-placed ‘Red Shorts’ could see an open, entertaining game with BTTS as our prediction.
Leverkusen have 58 points (W17, D7, L9) going into the final matchday, three points behind the two teams immediately above them. Hamburg’s 37 points (W9, D10, L14) see them start this round safe in the knowledge that they are confirmed for next season.
A 3-1 defeat at Stuttgart last weekend was Leverkusen’s second in their last nine Bundesliga games. However, three defeats in that sequence were a top blow to their top four aspirations.
The Factory XI have also slipped at home lately, winning only two of their last five Bundesliga matches here (D2, L1).
Hamburg defeated Freiburg 3-2 at home last weekend to post consecutive league wins. These helped them move farther from the relegation zone, confirming safety, and are now giving them a chance to finish inside the top ten.
It’s their away form that’s a challenge, as Hamburg lost three of their last four away league games (W1), although winning the latest in that sequence.
Limited Offer. Currently at Stake
Bayer Leverkusen v Hamburg Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.29 | 6.8 | 8.6 |
|
|
1.28 | 6.3 | 9.1 |
|
|
1.26 | 6.5 | 9.5 |
|
|
1.3 | 6.25 | 7.5 |
|
|
1.29 | 6 | 7.8 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Bayer Leverkusen and Hamburg?
Our prediction for the Bayer Leverkusen vs Hamburg match is: BTTS.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 16/05/2026 between Bayer Leverkusen and Hamburg in Bundesliga :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 51.79% for a win of Bayer Leverkusen against Hamburg with odds of 1.32 at Tonybet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Bayer Leverkusen vs Hamburg is 19.52% with odds of 6.8 at Stake.
- Our prediction model gives a 28.69% chance ⭐ for a win of Hamburg vs Bayer Leverkusen with odds of 9.85 at 888Starz.
Bayer Leverkusen - Hamburg Prediction and Best Odds:
| Bayer Leverkusen Hamburg Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Bayer Leverkusen wins | 51.79% | 1.32 at Tonybet |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.68% | |
| Both Team To Score | 72.92% | |
| Half-time / Full-time : Bayer Leverkusen/Bayer Leverkusen | 21.39% | 1.8 at Bet365 |
Bayer Leverkusen vs Hamburg Form
Bayer Leverkusen and Hamburg's standings in the Bundesliga
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
6
|
59 | 34 | 17 | 8 | 9 | +21 |
|
13
|
38 | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | -14 |
Bayer Leverkusen and Hamburg Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
9 May 2026 - Bundesliga
2 May 2026 - Bundesliga
25 Apr 2026 - Bundesliga
22 Apr 2026 - DFB Pokal
18 Apr 2026 - Bundesliga
11 Apr 2026 - Bundesliga
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
2 May 2026 - Bundesliga
22 Apr 2026 - DFB Pokal
18 Apr 2026 - Bundesliga
4 Apr 2026 - Bundesliga
14 Mar 2026 - Bundesliga
11 Mar 2026 - Champions League
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
9 May 2026 - Bundesliga
25 Apr 2026 - Bundesliga
11 Apr 2026 - Bundesliga
21 Mar 2026 - Bundesliga
17 Mar 2026 - Champions League
7 Mar 2026 - Bundesliga
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
10 May 2026 - Bundesliga
2 May 2026 - Bundesliga
25 Apr 2026 - Bundesliga
18 Apr 2026 - Bundesliga
12 Apr 2026 - Bundesliga
4 Apr 2026 - Bundesliga
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
10 May 2026 - Bundesliga
25 Apr 2026 - Bundesliga
4 Apr 2026 - Bundesliga
14 Mar 2026 - Bundesliga
4 Mar 2026 - Bundesliga
1 Mar 2026 - Bundesliga
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
2 May 2026 - Bundesliga
18 Apr 2026 - Bundesliga
12 Apr 2026 - Bundesliga
21 Mar 2026 - Bundesliga
7 Mar 2026 - Bundesliga
20 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
Bayer Leverkusen vs Hamburg Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
67 %
0 %
33 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
4 Mar 2026 - Bundesliga
24 Sept 2017 - Bundesliga
3 Feb 2017 - Bundesliga
Bayer Leverkusen against Hamburg Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 3 - 4 - 2 - 1
Formation : 3 - 3 - 2 - 2
Substitutes
J. Blaswich
L. Bade
Arthur
T. Oermann
L. Vazquez
E. Fernandez
J. Hofmann
E. Poku
E. Ben Seghir
D. Fernandes
DefenderD. Elfadli
S. Nandja
G. Gocholeishvili
W. Mikelbrencis
M. Muheim
B. Jatta
ForwardF. Balde
Y. Poulsen
Missing players
I. Traore
ForwardM. Terrier
F. Dickes
ForwardR. Glatzel
A. Rossing Lelesiit
Most goals and assists
Bayer Leverkusen
Hamburg
P. Schick
(16 Goals)
F. Vieira
(7 Goals)
A. Garcia
(8 Assists)
F. Vieira
(5 Assists)
Bayer Leverkusen - Hamburg Key Points
- Eight of Leverkusen’s last nine Bundesliga matches including four in a row produced BTTS.
- Leverkusen’s last five home league games saw both teams score goals.
- In eight of Hamburg’s last nine league fixtures, both teams scored goals.
- Five of Hmaburg’s last six away league games saw BTTS.
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Our Bayer Leverkusen vs Hamburg Prediction
Leverkusen’s defeat at Stuttgart last weekend took their destiny out of their hands. They now have to win big here and hope that both Stuttgart and Hoffenheim lose so that Leverkusen can sneak into the top four spots. That may look like a steep task, but playing at home gives them an advantage. More so, Hamburg will travel here having already secured their Bundesliga status. That may liberate them to put in another strong performance.
This could be an open game, and our Bayer Leverkusen vs Hamburg prediction is BTTS.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Bayer Leverkusen Hamburg
| Bayer Leverkusen vs Hamburg | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bayer Leverkusen wins | 1.39 | 1.32 | -5.0% |
| Draw | 5.2 | 6.8 | +30.8% |
| Hamburg wins | 6.4 | 9.85 | +53.9% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Bayer Leverkusen is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 5.0% since opening
- The probability of this result was 71.9% and is now 75.8% (3.8%)
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
