Athletic Bilbao vs Sporting Lisbon Prediction & Betting Tips - Champions League
Europe - Champions League
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by Daniel Ngulu | in Champions League Predictions
Athletic Bilbao welcome Sporting Lisbon this week, with the Spaniards looking to use this match to qualify for the Champions League knockout phase. Five points separate the two heading into this matchday eight fixture, which concludes the league phase of this season’s competition. Read on for our prediction of this match.
Sporting, who have the points advantage, sit in 10th place, whereas their hosts are down in 23rd. This is the first competitive meeting between these two since they last met in the semi-finals of the 2011/12 Europa League. This fixture tends to favor the hosts, as the team playing at home won across their four head-to-head clashes.
Athletic, who need a win here more, will be crossing fingers for a continuation of their performance against Portuguese sides. They’ve won four of their previous five matches against such opponents. That tallies well with Sporting’s record in Spain. Out of 14 away games in Spain, Sporting are winless, losing 10.
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Athletic Bilbao v Sporting Lisbon Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2.8 | 3.45 | 2.55 |
|
|
2.93 | 3.32 | 2.43 |
|
|
2.75 | 3.34 | 2.56 |
|
|
2.9 | 3.3 | 2.4 |
|
|
2.86 | 3.35 | 2.46 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Athletic Bilbao and Sporting Lisbon?
Our prediction for the Athletic Bilbao vs Sporting Lisbon match is: more than 2.5 goals.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 28/01/2026 between Athletic Bilbao and Sporting Lisbon in Champions League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 25.92% for a win of Athletic Bilbao against Sporting Lisbon with odds of 2.93 at Melbet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Athletic Bilbao vs Sporting Lisbon is 21.12% with odds of 3.48 at 888Starz.
- Our prediction model gives a 52.96% chance ⭐ for a win of Sporting Lisbon vs Athletic Bilbao with odds of 2.65 at 888Starz.
Athletic Bilbao - Sporting Lisbon Prediction and Best Odds:
| Athletic Bilbao Sporting Lisbon Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Sporting Lisbon wins | 52.96% | 2.65 at 888Starz |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.27% | 1.92 at Melbet |
| Both Team To Score | 54.17% | |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Sporting Lisbon | 25.83% | 6.25 at LSbet |
Athletic Bilbao vs Sporting Lisbon Form
Athletic Bilbao and Sporting Lisbon's standings in the Champions League
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
7
|
16 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | +6 |
|
29
|
8 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 |
Athletic Bilbao and Sporting Lisbon Last Matches
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
24 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
21 Jan 2026 - Champions League
17 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
13 Jan 2026 - Copa del Rey
7 Jan 2026 - Spanish Super Cup
3 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
22 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
10 Dec 2025 - Champions League
6 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
3 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
9 Nov 2025 - LaLiga
25 Oct 2025 - LaLiga
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
24 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
21 Jan 2026 - Champions League
17 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
13 Jan 2026 - Copa del Rey
7 Jan 2026 - Spanish Super Cup
3 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
24 Jan 2026 - Liga Portugal
20 Jan 2026 - Champions League
16 Jan 2026 - Liga Portugal
6 Jan 2026 - Portugal League Cup
2 Jan 2026 - Liga Portugal
28 Dec 2025 - Liga Portugal
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
20 Jan 2026 - Champions League
16 Jan 2026 - Liga Portugal
6 Jan 2026 - Portugal League Cup
28 Dec 2025 - Liga Portugal
13 Dec 2025 - Liga Portugal
30 Nov 2025 - Liga Portugal
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
24 Jan 2026 - Liga Portugal
2 Jan 2026 - Liga Portugal
23 Dec 2025 - Liga Portugal
18 Dec 2025 - Taca de Portugal
9 Dec 2025 - Champions League
5 Dec 2025 - Liga Portugal
Athletic Bilbao vs Sporting Lisbon Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
0 %
0 %
100 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
27 Jul 2024 - Clubs Friendlies
Athletic Bilbao - Sporting Lisbon: Form Analysis
Athletic Bilbao have been inconsistent this season. In the CL, they have won just two of seven outings and have also lost three times. This shakiness has left the Spanish side needing to win this week to avoid elimination from Europe. Ernesto Valverde’s men are tied on eight points with four other teams.
They are also just two points ahead of Ajax in 32nd spot, with all the teams in between with a chance of qualifying for the round of 16 playoffs. The Lions, who’ve won just three of their last 10 games, are coming off a 2-1 loss to Sevilla in La Liga action over the weekend. It was a disappointing result after the high of winning a five-goal thriller away to Atalanta.
Sporting have two wins in their last 16 matches against Spanish opposition.
Sporting Lisbon are seeking to avoid the playoff altogether and qualify for the round of 16 directly. The Portuguese giants have won four of seven UCL fixtures and are tied with seven other teams on 13 points. They are already assured of a place in the playoffs as an unseeded team.
Rui Borges’s men have won seven of their last nine games. They defeated defending champions PSG last week and followed that up with a 2-1 victory away to Arouca to keep pace in the Primeira Liga title race.
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Athletic Bilbao against Sporting Lisbon Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Substitutes
A. Padilla
DefenderI. Lekue
J. Areso
J. de Luis
MidfielderS. Sanchez
I. Sanchez
M. Vesga
E. Gift
N. Serrano
A. Berenguer
A. Hierro
F. Silva
J. Virginia
DefenderG. Vagiannidis
Quaresma
R. Mangas
M. Reis
P. Goncalves
H. Morita
G. Kochorashvili
A. Santos
R. Nel
F. Goncalves
Missing players
A. Laporte
Y. Alvarez
U. Egiluz
MidfielderB. Prados
ForwardI. Williams
M. Sannadi
Athletic Bilbao & Sporting Lisbon Squad Analysis
Athletic Club’s season has largely been affected by injuries, and now suspensions come in as a fresh threat. Mikel Jauregizar, who has two assists in Europe, is suspended for this match. Meanwhile, Aymeric Laporte, Maroan Sannadi, and Inaki Williams are out injured.
Gorka Guruzeta has scored four goals in this competition and will hope to add some more. He was on target in the win in Atalanta and should partner Robert Navarro up front. Navarro is the only other Bilbao player to have scored more than once in the Champions League this season.
Luis Suarez has four goals in Sporting’s six league phase matches.
Sporting have a longer injury list than their hosts. Salvador Blopa, Geovany Quenda, Fotis Ioannidis, Eduardo Quaresma, and Nuno Santos will all miss this trip. However, Sporting will be happy to have Luis Suarez.
The forward, who netted a brace against PSG, has four goals in the CL and should lead the line on Wednesday. Strike partner Francisco Trincao has managed to find the net three times, and the two will partner, looking to add potency in attack.
Most goals and assists
Athletic Bilbao
Sporting Lisbon
G. Guruzeta
(5 Goals)
L. Suarez
(5 Goals)
M. Jauregizar
(2 Assists)
,
R. Navarro
(2 Assists)
F. Trincao
(3 Assists)
Athletic Bilbao - Sporting Lisbon Key Points
- Over 2.5 goals have been scored in Bilbao’s last five fixtures.
- Sporting have scored two or more goals seven times in their last 10 games.
- Sporting’s last four matches had over 2.5 goals scored.
- 18 goals were scored in Sporting’s last five away matches.
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Our Athletic Bilbao vs Sporting Lisbon Prediction
Our prediction for Athletic Bilbao v Sporting Lisbon is for more than 2.5 goals. Sporting are a free-scoring side. Goals seem to come easily for the visitors, and when in top gear, they have put their opponents through a hammering.
Bilbao are also a decent attacking team and will put Sporting’s defence, which isn’t the meanest, under threat. As both teams seek to end the first phase of the CL on a high note, the chances of a high-scoring affair look very likely.
Athletic Bilbao vs Sporting Lisbon Alternative Predictions
Sporting to win
In our second prediction, we are settling for Sporting to win. Though they have had a poor run in Spain, Sporting have lately been in red-hot form, having won their last three matches. They defeated the holders, PSG, last time out to show they can be a match for any team. Sporting should therefore be able to pin down a team that has struggled to win so far this season.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Athletic Bilbao Sporting Lisbon
| Athletic Bilbao vs Sporting Lisbon | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Bilbao wins | 1.92 | 2.93 | +52.6% |
| Draw | 3.56 | 3.48 | -2.2% |
| Sporting Lisbon wins | 3.96 | 2.65 | -33.1% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Sporting Lisbon is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 33.1% since opening
- The probability of this result was 25.3% and is now 37.7% (12.5%)
Athletic Bilbao vs Sporting Lisbon - FAQs
The Athletic Bilbao v Sporting Lisbon match will be played on Wednesday, 28 January.
The Athletic Bilbao v Sporting Lisbon match will be played at Athletic’s San Mames Stadium in Bilbao, Spain.
There will be a live feed for the Athletic Bilbao v Sporting Lisbon match. In Spain, you can follow the game through Telefonica. Sport TV and DAZN will be airing the match in Portugal. For updates for this and other Champions League matches, check out Sportytrader.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
