Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest Prediction & Betting Tips - Europa League
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by Steve Ashfield | in Europa League Predictions
Two English Premier League clubs meet in the semi-finals of the Europa League. Aston Villa are the home side in this second leg but trail visitors Nottingham Forest 1-0 after last week's game at the City Ground. Can the Villans win at home? Read our match prediction below.
Aston Villa are on their way to the Champions League next season. They are fifth in the Premier League with a six point lead over sixth-place. However, they come into this match looking to avoid a fourth straight defeat. Can they bounce back and reach the final?
Nottingham Forest are the form side in the Premier League at present.. Monday saw them win at Chelsea to boost their chances of avoiding relegation. The Tricky Trees have been scoring plenty of goals in recent games, especially on the road. They lead 1-0 from the first leg and will hope their first European campaign in 30 years will end with them reaching the Europa League final.
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Aston Villa v Nottingham Forest Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.74 | 3.9 | 4.8 |
|
|
1.73 | 3.84 | 4.66 |
|
|
1.71 | 3.92 | 4.66 |
|
|
1.8 | 3.4 | 4.5 |
|
|
1.74 | 3.8 | 4.6 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Aston Villa and Nottingham Forest?
Our prediction for the Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest match is: Nottingham Forest wins or draws.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 07/05/2026 between Aston Villa and Nottingham Forest in Europa League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 35.13% for a win of Aston Villa against Nottingham Forest with odds of 1.8 at Bet365.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest is 18.6% with odds of 4.08 at 888Starz.
- Our prediction model gives a 46.27% chance ⭐ for a win of Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa with odds of 4.84 at 888Starz.
Aston Villa - Nottingham Forest Prediction and Best Odds:
| Aston Villa Nottingham Forest Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest wins | 46.27% | 4.84 at 888Starz |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.69% | 2 at Bet365 |
| Both Team To Score | 57.92% | |
| Half-time / Full-time: Nottingham Forest/Nottingham Forest | 17.18% | 7.25 at LSbet |
Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest Form
Aston Villa and Nottingham Forest Last Matches
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
3 May 2026 - Premier League
30 Apr 2026 - Europa League
25 Apr 2026 - Premier League
19 Apr 2026 - Premier League
16 Apr 2026 - Europa League
12 Apr 2026 - Premier League
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
3 May 2026 - Premier League
19 Apr 2026 - Premier League
16 Apr 2026 - Europa League
22 Mar 2026 - Premier League
19 Mar 2026 - Europa League
4 Mar 2026 - Premier League
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
30 Apr 2026 - Europa League
25 Apr 2026 - Premier League
12 Apr 2026 - Premier League
9 Apr 2026 - Europa League
27 Mar 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
15 Mar 2026 - Premier League
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
4 May 2026 - Premier League
30 Apr 2026 - Europa League
24 Apr 2026 - Premier League
19 Apr 2026 - Premier League
16 Apr 2026 - Europa League
12 Apr 2026 - Premier League
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
30 Apr 2026 - Europa League
19 Apr 2026 - Premier League
16 Apr 2026 - Europa League
12 Apr 2026 - Premier League
15 Mar 2026 - Premier League
12 Mar 2026 - Europa League
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
4 May 2026 - Premier League
24 Apr 2026 - Premier League
9 Apr 2026 - Europa League
22 Mar 2026 - Premier League
19 Mar 2026 - Europa League
4 Mar 2026 - Premier League
Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
50 %
17 %
33 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
30 Apr 2026 - Europa League
12 Apr 2026 - Premier League
3 Jan 2026 - Premier League
5 Apr 2025 - Premier League
14 Dec 2024 - Premier League
24 Feb 2024 - Premier League
Aston Villa - Nottingham Forest: Form Analysis
Aston Villa have won all six of their home games in this season's Europa League. Four of those games saw them keep a clean sheet but the Lions come into this game in worrying form. They have lost their last two league games at Fulham and home to Spurs last Sunday.
Between those two losses, they also lost the first leg of this Europa League semi-final. It was a close affair at the City Ground with Forest's winner coming from a second-half penalty scored by Chris Wood.
Forest are the in-form side.
Nottingham Forest have had a crazy season. A large portion of it has been spent in the relegation zone of the Premier League. They have turned their season around though and the win at Chelsea on Monday made it ten games without defeat.
On the road in this season's Europa League, the Reds have only lost at Braga, who play Freiburg in the other semi-final. They are unbeaten in three games at Fenerbahce, Midtjylland and Porto since then.
Four of their last five away matches have been won with eight goals scored in the last two. Forest are unbeaten in their last six away matches. This is their third game in a month against Villa, winning one and drawing the other.
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Aston Villa against Nottingham Forest Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 3 - 5 - 2
Formation : 4 - 4 - 1 - 1
Substitutes
J. Wright
M. Bizot
DefenderI. Maatsen
T. Mings
L. Bogarde
Douglas Luiz
H. Elliott
A. Garcia
ForwardJ. Sancho
L. Bailey
T. Abraham
K. Willows
M. Sels
DefenderJ. Hanks
MidfielderMurillo
R. Yates
I. Sangare
M. Gibbs-White
A. Whitehall
J. Sinclair
D. Bakwa
D. Ndoye
L. Lucca
Missing players
B. Kamara
A. Onana
ForwardAlysson
John Victor
DefenderW. Boly
O. Aina
N. Savona
Z. Abbott
ForwardC. Hudson Odoi
Aston Villa & Nottingham Forest Squad Analysis
Nottingham Forest coach Vitor Pereira made some strange selection decisions at Stamford Bridge on Monday. He made eight changes to his starting line-up at Chelsea despite his side being only three points above the relegation zone.
It became stranger when they led 2-0 at half-time and then decided to bring on Morgan Gibbs-White. The gamble didn't pay off and he had to go off after clashing heads with Chelsea's goalkeeper. He sustained a deep cut and is now doubtful for this second leg.
Don't head the ball please.
His coach has told him just to play football and not head the ball, so he could yet play at Villa Park. The Tricky Trees will be hoping that the recently returned Chris Wood will continue his good form after scoring the winner in the first leg.
Aston Villa also made several changes for their weekend fixture and it didn't work out well for them. The Villans were beaten 2-1 at home by relegation-threatened Tottenham. That made it three straight losses for Villa with just one goal being scored.
Most goals and assists
Aston Villa
Nottingham Forest
J. McGinn
(5 Goals)
, 
O. Watkins
(5 Goals)
Igor Jesus
(7 Goals)
M. Rogers
(5 Assists)
, 
E. Buendia
(5 Assists)
M. Gibbs-White
(3 Assists)
Aston Villa - Nottingham Forest Key Points
- Aston Villa have lost their last three games.
- Aston Villa have only scored one goal in those three defeats.
- Nottingham Forest are unbeaten in their last ten matches.
- Nottingham Forest have won and drawn against Villa in two recent meetings.
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Our Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest Prediction
From a relegation battle to the Champions League is Nottingham Forest's target at present. They are top of a form league for the last five Premier League games and have scored eight goals in their last two away fixtures.
Aston Villa have lost their last three games but a place in next season's UCL is still looking likely. They have failed to beat Forest in two recent matches (both with under 2.5 goals) and our main Aston Villa v Nottingham Forest prediction is Nottingham Forest wins or draws.
Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest Alternative Predictions
Draw
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Aston Villa Nottingham Forest
| Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa wins | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0% |
| Draw | 3.4 | 4.08 | +20.0% |
| Nottingham Forest wins | 4.5 | 4.84 | +7.6% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Nottingham Forest is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 7.6% since opening
- The probability of this result was 22.2% and is now 20.7% (-1.6%)
Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest - FAQs
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
